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/ root / Laker / Outside / Sun Room / Deep Freeze / Deep Freezer Temperature | RoC: -1.87 - 1.64 (°F/hr)

/ root / Laker / Outside / Sun Room / Deep Freeze / Deep Freezer Temperature

No anomalies occurred in the selected time period — showing the most recent historical anomalies for this sensor.

Timestamp	Severity	Type	Value	Baseline	% vs Base	Rate of Change	Z-Value	Z-Rate	Confidence
10/23/26 22:20:00	WARNING	Value Deviation	49.86 °F/hr	-3.45	+1543.5%	0	4.52	-	50.2%
10/23/26 22:10:00	WARNING	Value Deviation	49.86 °F/hr	-3.65	+1467.7%	0.002	4.7	-	52.2%
10/23/26 22:00:00	WARNING	Value Deviation	48.4 °F/hr	-3.83	+1363%	0.002	4.75	-	52.8%
10/23/26 21:50:00	WARNING	Value Deviation	47.37 °F/hr	-4.02	+1279%	0.001	4.85	-	53.9%
10/23/26 21:40:00	WARNING	Value Deviation	46.71 °F/hr	-4.2	+1212.4%	0.002	5	-	55.6%
10/23/26 21:30:00	WARNING	Value Deviation	45.28 °F/hr	-4.38	+1134.9%	0.002	5.09	-	56.5%
10/23/26 21:20:00	WARNING	Value Deviation	44.38 °F/hr	-4.55	+1075.4%	0.004	5.23	-	58.2%
10/23/26 21:10:00	WARNING	Value Deviation	41.83 °F/hr	-4.71	+987.3%	0.003	5.2	-	57.8%
10/23/26 21:00:00	WARNING	Value Deviation	40.17 °F/hr	-4.88	+923.8%	-0	5.26	-	58.4%
10/23/26 20:50:00	WARNING	Value Deviation	40.39 °F/hr	-5.03	+902.2%	0.001	5.57	-	61.9%
10/23/26 20:40:00	WARNING	Value Deviation	39.58 °F/hr	-5.19	+862.1%	0.001	5.78	-	64.3%
10/23/26 20:30:00	WARNING	Value Deviation	38.88 °F/hr	-5.35	+826.6%	-0.001	6.05	-	67.2%
10/23/26 20:20:00	WARNING	Value Deviation	39.25 °F/hr	-5.51	+812.4%	-0	6.54	-	72.7%
10/23/26 20:10:00	CRITICAL	Extreme Value Deviation	39.45 °F/hr	-5.67	+796.2%	0.004	7.13	-	79.2%
10/23/26 20:00:00	CRITICAL	Extreme Value Deviation	37.15 °F/hr	-5.82	+738.6%	0.001	7.38	-	82%
10/23/26 19:50:00	CRITICAL	Extreme Value Deviation	36.3 °F/hr	-5.96	+708.8%	0.006	7.99	-	88.8%
10/23/26 19:40:00	CRITICAL	Extreme Value Deviation	32.92 °F/hr	-6.1	+639.9%	0.002	8.16	-	90.6%
10/23/26 19:30:00	CRITICAL	Extreme Value Deviation	31.82 °F/hr	-6.23	+610.6%	0.005	8.95	-	99.4%
10/23/26 19:20:00	CRITICAL	Extreme Value Deviation	28.58 °F/hr	-6.35	+549.8%	0.004	9.33	-	100%
10/23/26 19:10:00	CRITICAL	Extreme Value Deviation	25.92 °F/hr	-6.46	+500.9%	0.009	9.98	-	100%
10/23/26 19:00:00	CRITICAL	Extreme Value Deviation	20.61 °F/hr	-6.56	+414.2%	0.011	9.56	-	100%
10/23/26 18:50:00	CRITICAL	Extreme Value Deviation	14.27 °F/hr	-6.63	+315.1%	0.005	8.12	-	90.3%
10/23/26 18:40:00	CRITICAL	Extreme Value Deviation	11.01 °F/hr	-6.69	+264.5%	0.004	7.5	-	83.3%
10/23/26 18:30:00	CRITICAL	Extreme Value Deviation	8.31 °F/hr	-6.75	+223.2%	0.003	6.86	-	76.2%
10/23/26 18:20:00	WARNING	Value Deviation	6.39 °F/hr	-6.79	+194.1%	0	6.4	-	71.1%
10/23/26 18:10:00	CRITICAL	Extreme Value Deviation	6.37 °F/hr	-6.84	+193.2%	0.001	6.9	-	76.7%
10/23/26 18:00:00	CRITICAL	Extreme Value Deviation	5.52 °F/hr	-6.88	+180.2%	-0.001	6.98	-	77.6%
10/23/26 17:50:00	CRITICAL	Extreme Value Deviation	5.85 °F/hr	-6.93	+184.5%	0.002	7.91	-	87.8%
10/23/26 17:40:00	CRITICAL	Extreme Value Deviation	4.51 °F/hr	-6.97	+164.7%	0.002	7.78	-	86.5%
10/23/26 17:30:00	CRITICAL	Extreme Value Deviation	3.07 °F/hr	-7	+143.8%	-0.001	7.43	-	82.5%
10/23/26 17:20:00	CRITICAL	Extreme Value Deviation	3.38 °F/hr	-7.04	+148%	0.002	8.57	-	95.2%
10/23/26 17:10:00	CRITICAL	Extreme Value Deviation	2.23 °F/hr	-7.07	+131.5%	0.003	8.51	-	94.6%
10/23/26 17:00:00	CRITICAL	Extreme Value Deviation	0.7 °F/hr	-7.1	+109.9%	0.002	7.83	-	87%
10/23/26 16:50:00	CRITICAL	Extreme Value Deviation	-0.54 °F/hr	-7.13	+92.4%	0.002	7.15	-	79.4%
10/23/26 16:40:00	WARNING	Value Deviation	-2.02 °F/hr	-7.15	+71.7%	-0.001	5.86	-	65.1%
10/23/26 16:30:00	CRITICAL	Extreme Value Deviation	-1.32 °F/hr	-7.17	+81.6%	0.003	7.24	-	80.4%
10/23/26 16:20:00	WARNING	Value Deviation	-2.92 °F/hr	-7.18	+59.4%	0.002	5.53	-	61.5%
10/11/26 19:40:00	WARNING	Rate Spike	-0.35 °F/hr	-3.16	+88.9%	0.013	1.64	6.41	41.2%
10/10/26 13:00:00	WARNING	Value Deviation	2.17 °F/hr	-3.25	+166.7%	-0.003	4.85	-	53.9%
10/10/26 12:50:00	CRITICAL	Extreme Value Deviation	3.83 °F/hr	-3.28	+216.8%	0.002	6.83	-	75.9%
10/10/26 12:40:00	WARNING	Value Deviation	2.89 °F/hr	-3.3	+187.6%	0.002	6.32	-	70.2%
10/10/26 12:30:00	WARNING	Value Deviation	1.71 °F/hr	-3.31	+151.6%	0.001	5.36	-	59.6%
10/10/26 12:20:00	WARNING	Value Deviation	1.06 °F/hr	-3.33	+131.9%	0.003	4.87	-	54.1%
10/08/26 12:40:00	WARNING	Value Deviation	0.07 °F/hr	-3.43	+102%	0.007	4.64	-	51.6%

/ root / Laker / Outside / Sun Room / Deep Freeze / Deep Freezer Temperature

📈 Forecast Chart All Sensors ↗

🔮 Next Short Forecast (+1h)

40.058 °F/hr (-0.38)

Target: 05:10 · 80% Cone: [39.27 – 40.85]

🔭 Next Long Forecast (+4h)

38.349 °F/hr (-2.09)

Target: 08:10 · 80% Cone: [37.29 – 39.41]

🎯 Out-of-Sample Accuracy

96.9% (191 checked)

MAE: 0.771 °F/hr · RMSE: 2.691 °F/hr · Fit R²=0.24

🚨 Historical Failures & Drift

2 diverged

7 minor drift · Max Z-Error: 34.51σ

Target Time	Predicted At	Horizon	Model & R²	Start Value	Predicted (80% Cone)	Actual Reading	Error (Actual − Pred)	Z-Error	Outcome
11/03/26 08:10:00 (in 3.7h)	11/03 04:18:25	+4h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.98	40.435 °F/hr	38.349 °F/hr [37.29 – 39.41]	⏳ Waiting	-	-	⏳ Pending
11/03/26 05:10:00 (in 43m)	11/03 04:18:25	+1h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.98	40.435 °F/hr	40.058 °F/hr [39.27 – 40.85]	⏳ Waiting	-	-	⏳ Pending
11/02/26 07:40:00	11/02 03:48:39	+4h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.95	45.527 °F/hr	44.647 °F/hr [43.7 – 45.6]	44.08 °F/hr	-0.567 °F/hr	0.76σ	✓ Accurate
11/02/26 04:40:00	11/02 03:48:39	+1h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.95	45.527 °F/hr	45.11 °F/hr [44.41 – 45.82]	43.97 °F/hr	-1.14 °F/hr	2.06σ	~ Minor Drift

Target Time	Predicted At	Horizon	Model & R²	Start Value	Predicted (80% Cone)	Actual Reading	Error (Actual − Pred)	Z-Error	Outcome
11/03/26 08:10:00 (in 3.7h)	11/03 04:18:25	+4h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.98	40.435 °F/hr	38.349 °F/hr [37.29 – 39.41]	⏳ Waiting	-	-	⏳ Pending
11/03/26 05:10:00 (in 43m)	11/03 04:18:25	+1h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.98	40.435 °F/hr	40.058 °F/hr [39.27 – 40.85]	⏳ Waiting	-	-	⏳ Pending
11/02/26 07:40:00	11/02 03:48:39	+4h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.95	45.527 °F/hr	44.647 °F/hr [43.7 – 45.6]	44.08 °F/hr	-0.567 °F/hr	0.76σ	✓ Accurate
11/02/26 04:40:00	11/02 03:48:39	+1h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.95	45.527 °F/hr	45.11 °F/hr [44.41 – 45.82]	43.97 °F/hr	-1.14 °F/hr	2.06σ	~ Minor Drift
10/25/26 17:50:00	10/25 13:54:50	+4h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.98	48.663 °F/hr	45.358 °F/hr [44.15 – 46.57]	No reading	-	-	No Reading
10/25/26 14:50:00	10/25 13:54:50	+1h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.98	48.663 °F/hr	48.403 °F/hr [47.5 – 49.3]	No reading	-	-	No Reading
10/23/26 19:20:00	10/23 15:24:07	+4h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.18	-7.286 °F/hr	-7.109 °F/hr [-8.42 – -5.8]	28.58 °F/hr	+35.689 °F/hr	34.51σ	🚨 Diverged
10/23/26 16:20:00	10/23 15:24:07	+1h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.18	-7.286 °F/hr	-7.217 °F/hr [-8.2 – -6.24]	-2.92 °F/hr	+4.297 °F/hr	5.6σ	🚨 Diverged
10/23/26 08:10:00	10/23 04:13:56	+4h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.24	-6.701 °F/hr	-6.857 °F/hr [-8.12 – -5.59]	-5.96 °F/hr	+0.897 °F/hr	0.9σ	✓ Accurate
10/23/26 07:00:00	10/23 03:08:12	+4h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.23	-6.798 °F/hr	-6.849 °F/hr [-8.11 – -5.59]	-6.07 °F/hr	+0.779 °F/hr	0.79σ	✓ Accurate
10/23/26 05:10:00	10/23 01:10:31	+4h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.21	-6.727 °F/hr	-6.533 °F/hr [-7.81 – -5.25]	-6.27 °F/hr	+0.263 °F/hr	0.26σ	✓ Accurate
10/23/26 05:10:00	10/23 04:13:56	+1h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.24	-6.701 °F/hr	-6.762 °F/hr [-7.7 – -5.82]	-6.27 °F/hr	+0.492 °F/hr	0.67σ	✓ Accurate
10/23/26 04:30:00	10/23 03:30:00	+1h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.23	-6.8 °F/hr	-6.874 °F/hr [-7.81 – -5.94]	-6.7 °F/hr	+0.174 °F/hr	0.24σ	✓ Accurate
10/23/26 04:10:00	10/23 00:10:00	+4h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.22	-6.909 °F/hr	-6.817 °F/hr [-8.11 – -5.53]	-7.1 °F/hr	-0.283 °F/hr	0.28σ	✓ Accurate
10/23/26 04:00:00	10/23 03:08:12	+1h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.23	-6.798 °F/hr	-6.818 °F/hr [-7.75 – -5.88]	-6.57 °F/hr	+0.248 °F/hr	0.34σ	✓ Accurate
10/23/26 03:30:00	10/23 02:30:00	+1h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.23	-6.697 °F/hr	-6.606 °F/hr [-7.54 – -5.67]	-7.17 °F/hr	-0.564 °F/hr	0.77σ	✓ Accurate
10/23/26 03:30:00	10/22 23:30:00	+4h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.21	-6.917 °F/hr	-6.713 °F/hr [-7.99 – -5.44]	-7.17 °F/hr	-0.457 °F/hr	0.46σ	✓ Accurate
10/23/26 03:00:00	10/23 02:00:00	+1h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.22	-6.762 °F/hr	-6.565 °F/hr [-7.49 – -5.64]	-6.9 °F/hr	-0.335 °F/hr	0.46σ	✓ Accurate
10/23/26 03:00:00	10/22 23:00:00	+4h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.19	-7.15 °F/hr	-7.447 °F/hr [-8.75 – -6.15]	-6.9 °F/hr	+0.547 °F/hr	0.54σ	✓ Accurate
10/23/26 02:30:00	10/22 22:30:00	+4h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.24	-6.843 °F/hr	-6.904 °F/hr [-8.14 – -5.67]	-6.45 °F/hr	+0.454 °F/hr	0.47σ	✓ Accurate
10/23/26 02:10:00	10/23 01:10:31	+1h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.21	-6.727 °F/hr	-6.651 °F/hr [-7.61 – -5.7]	-7.71 °F/hr	-1.059 °F/hr	1.42σ	✓ Accurate
10/23/26 02:00:00	10/22 22:00:00	+4h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.22	-7.152 °F/hr	-7.286 °F/hr [-8.53 – -6.04]	-6.12 °F/hr	+1.166 °F/hr	1.19σ	✓ Accurate
10/23/26 01:10:00	10/23 00:10:00	+1h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.20	-6.813 °F/hr	-6.791 °F/hr [-7.74 – -5.84]	-7.19 °F/hr	-0.399 °F/hr	0.54σ	✓ Accurate
10/23/26 01:10:00	10/22 21:18:09	+4h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.21	-7.017 °F/hr	-6.644 °F/hr [-7.92 – -5.37]	-7.19 °F/hr	-0.546 °F/hr	0.55σ	✓ Accurate
10/23/26 00:10:00	10/22 20:18:32	+4h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.28	-7.17 °F/hr	-7.234 °F/hr [-8.44 – -6.03]	-7.33 °F/hr	-0.096 °F/hr	0.1σ	✓ Accurate
10/23/26 00:10:00	10/22 23:10:00	+1h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.21	-6.973 °F/hr	-7.038 °F/hr [-7.98 – -6.1]	-7.33 °F/hr	-0.292 °F/hr	0.4σ	✓ Accurate
10/22/26 23:10:00	10/22 22:10:00	+1h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.20	-6.866 °F/hr	-6.786 °F/hr [-7.73 – -5.84]	-7.19 °F/hr	-0.404 °F/hr	0.55σ	✓ Accurate
10/22/26 23:10:00	10/22 19:10:00	+4h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.22	-7.273 °F/hr	-6.968 °F/hr [-8.21 – -5.73]	-7.19 °F/hr	-0.222 °F/hr	0.23σ	✓ Accurate
10/22/26 22:10:00	10/22 18:10:00	+4h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.28	-7.384 °F/hr	-7.39 °F/hr [-8.58 – -6.2]	-6.07 °F/hr	+1.32 °F/hr	1.41σ	✓ Accurate
10/22/26 22:10:00	10/22 21:18:09	+1h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.21	-7.017 °F/hr	-6.871 °F/hr [-7.82 – -5.92]	-6.07 °F/hr	+0.801 °F/hr	1.08σ	✓ Accurate
10/22/26 21:10:00	10/22 20:18:32	+1h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.28	-7.17 °F/hr	-7.164 °F/hr [-8.06 – -6.27]	-6.21 °F/hr	+0.954 °F/hr	1.36σ	✓ Accurate
10/22/26 21:10:00	10/22 17:10:00	+4h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.27	-7.632 °F/hr	-7.635 °F/hr [-8.85 – -6.42]	-6.21 °F/hr	+1.425 °F/hr	1.5σ	✓ Accurate
10/22/26 20:10:00	10/22 19:10:00	+1h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.20	-7.345 °F/hr	-7.252 °F/hr [-8.17 – -6.34]	-6.12 °F/hr	+1.132 °F/hr	1.58σ	✓ Accurate
10/22/26 20:10:00	10/22 16:10:00	+4h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.26	-7.779 °F/hr	-7.79 °F/hr [-8.97 – -6.61]	-6.12 °F/hr	+1.67 °F/hr	1.8σ	~ Minor Drift
10/22/26 19:10:00	10/22 18:10:00	+1h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.20	-7.541 °F/hr	-7.47 °F/hr [-8.39 – -6.55]	-6.65 °F/hr	+0.82 °F/hr	1.13σ	✓ Accurate
10/22/26 19:10:00	10/22 15:10:00	+4h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.28	-7.508 °F/hr	-7.82 °F/hr [-9 – -6.64]	-6.65 °F/hr	+1.17 °F/hr	1.26σ	✓ Accurate
10/22/26 18:10:00	10/22 17:10:00	+1h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.21	-7.654 °F/hr	-7.649 °F/hr [-8.57 – -6.73]	-6.38 °F/hr	+1.269 °F/hr	1.76σ	~ Minor Drift
10/22/26 18:10:00	10/22 14:10:00	+4h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.26	-7.415 °F/hr	-7.843 °F/hr [-9.04 – -6.64]	-6.38 °F/hr	+1.463 °F/hr	1.55σ	✓ Accurate
10/22/26 17:10:00	10/22 16:10:00	+1h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.26	-7.779 °F/hr	-7.819 °F/hr [-8.7 – -6.94]	-6.93 °F/hr	+0.889 °F/hr	1.29σ	✓ Accurate
10/22/26 17:10:00	10/22 13:10:00	+4h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.25	-7.186 °F/hr	-7.797 °F/hr [-9.01 – -6.59]	-6.93 °F/hr	+0.867 °F/hr	0.91σ	✓ Accurate
10/22/26 16:20:00	10/22 12:24:36	+4h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.27	-7.218 °F/hr	-7.777 °F/hr [-8.97 – -6.58]	-7.64 °F/hr	+0.137 °F/hr	0.15σ	✓ Accurate
10/22/26 16:10:00	10/22 15:10:00	+1h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.28	-7.508 °F/hr	-7.661 °F/hr [-8.54 – -6.78]	-8.07 °F/hr	-0.409 °F/hr	0.59σ	✓ Accurate
10/22/26 15:10:00	10/22 14:10:00	+1h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.26	-7.415 °F/hr	-7.589 °F/hr [-8.48 – -6.7]	-7.73 °F/hr	-0.141 °F/hr	0.2σ	✓ Accurate
10/22/26 15:10:00	10/22 11:10:00	+4h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.27	-7.172 °F/hr	-7.674 °F/hr [-8.85 – -6.5]	-7.73 °F/hr	-0.056 °F/hr	0.06σ	✓ Accurate
10/22/26 14:10:00	10/22 13:10:00	+1h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.25	-7.186 °F/hr	-7.397 °F/hr [-8.3 – -6.5]	-8 °F/hr	-0.603 °F/hr	0.85σ	✓ Accurate
10/22/26 14:10:00	10/22 10:10:00	+4h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.28	-7.107 °F/hr	-7.563 °F/hr [-8.74 – -6.39]	-8 °F/hr	-0.437 °F/hr	0.47σ	✓ Accurate
10/22/26 13:20:00	10/22 12:24:36	+1h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.27	-7.218 °F/hr	-7.366 °F/hr [-8.25 – -6.48]	-7.69 °F/hr	-0.324 °F/hr	0.47σ	✓ Accurate
10/22/26 13:10:00	10/22 09:10:00	+4h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.27	-7.179 °F/hr	-7.564 °F/hr [-8.74 – -6.39]	-7.83 °F/hr	-0.266 °F/hr	0.29σ	✓ Accurate
10/22/26 12:20:00	10/22 08:26:54	+4h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.21	-7.129 °F/hr	-7.086 °F/hr [-8.32 – -5.85]	-7.55 °F/hr	-0.464 °F/hr	0.48σ	✓ Accurate
10/22/26 12:20:00	10/22 11:20:00	+1h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.31	-7.096 °F/hr	-7.204 °F/hr [-8.06 – -6.34]	-7.55 °F/hr	-0.346 °F/hr	0.51σ	✓ Accurate
10/22/26 12:00:00	10/22 08:01:40	+4h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.30	-6.928 °F/hr	-7.336 °F/hr [-8.48 – -6.19]	-6.21 °F/hr	+1.126 °F/hr	1.25σ	✓ Accurate
10/22/26 11:20:00	10/22 10:20:00	+1h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.30	-7.02 °F/hr	-7.069 °F/hr [-7.92 – -6.22]	-6.14 °F/hr	+0.929 °F/hr	1.4σ	✓ Accurate
10/22/26 11:10:00	10/22 07:12:50	+4h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.30	-7.123 °F/hr	-7.137 °F/hr [-8.29 – -5.98]	-8.39 °F/hr	-1.253 °F/hr	1.38σ	✓ Accurate
10/22/26 10:20:00	10/22 09:20:00	+1h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.30	-7.013 °F/hr	-7.049 °F/hr [-7.9 – -6.2]	-6.14 °F/hr	+0.909 °F/hr	1.36σ	✓ Accurate
10/22/26 10:20:00	10/22 06:28:40	+4h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.26	-6.898 °F/hr	-6.845 °F/hr [-8.05 – -5.64]	-6.14 °F/hr	+0.705 °F/hr	0.74σ	✓ Accurate
10/22/26 09:50:00	10/22 05:50:45	+4h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.27	-7.008 °F/hr	-6.899 °F/hr [-8.07 – -5.73]	-6.54 °F/hr	+0.359 °F/hr	0.39σ	✓ Accurate
10/22/26 09:20:00	10/22 08:26:54	+1h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.21	-7.129 °F/hr	-7.112 °F/hr [-8.03 – -6.19]	-6.45 °F/hr	+0.662 °F/hr	0.92σ	✓ Accurate
10/22/26 09:20:00	10/22 05:20:00	+4h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.30	-6.998 °F/hr	-6.849 °F/hr [-7.98 – -5.72]	-6.45 °F/hr	+0.399 °F/hr	0.45σ	✓ Accurate
10/22/26 09:00:00	10/22 08:01:40	+1h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.30	-6.928 °F/hr	-6.981 °F/hr [-7.83 – -6.13]	-6.38 °F/hr	+0.601 °F/hr	0.9σ	✓ Accurate
10/22/26 08:50:00	10/22 04:53:53	+4h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.28	-7.002 °F/hr	-6.908 °F/hr [-8.07 – -5.75]	-6.65 °F/hr	+0.258 °F/hr	0.28σ	✓ Accurate
10/22/26 08:10:00	10/22 07:12:50	+1h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.30	-7.123 °F/hr	-7.045 °F/hr [-7.9 – -6.19]	-7.4 °F/hr	-0.355 °F/hr	0.53σ	✓ Accurate
10/22/26 08:00:00	10/22 04:00:00	+4h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.28	-7.065 °F/hr	-6.813 °F/hr [-7.96 – -5.67]	-7.26 °F/hr	-0.447 °F/hr	0.5σ	✓ Accurate
10/22/26 07:20:00	10/22 06:28:40	+1h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.26	-6.898 °F/hr	-6.788 °F/hr [-7.68 – -5.89]	-6.38 °F/hr	+0.408 °F/hr	0.58σ	✓ Accurate
10/22/26 07:10:00	10/22 03:10:00	+4h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.27	-7.092 °F/hr	-6.587 °F/hr [-7.75 – -5.42]	-7.73 °F/hr	-1.143 °F/hr	1.25σ	✓ Accurate
10/22/26 06:50:00	10/22 05:50:45	+1h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.27	-7.008 °F/hr	-6.925 °F/hr [-7.8 – -6.06]	-5.96 °F/hr	+0.965 °F/hr	1.42σ	✓ Accurate
10/22/26 06:20:00	10/22 05:20:00	+1h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.31	-7.002 °F/hr	-6.837 °F/hr [-7.69 – -5.98]	-6.12 °F/hr	+0.717 °F/hr	1.07σ	✓ Accurate
10/22/26 06:20:00	10/22 02:20:00	+4h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.30	-7.332 °F/hr	-6.756 °F/hr [-7.89 – -5.63]	-6.12 °F/hr	+0.636 °F/hr	0.72σ	✓ Accurate
10/22/26 05:50:00	10/22 04:53:53	+1h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.28	-7.002 °F/hr	-6.98 °F/hr [-7.84 – -6.12]	-6.45 °F/hr	+0.53 °F/hr	0.78σ	✓ Accurate
10/22/26 05:50:00	10/22 01:50:00	+4h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.29	-7.611 °F/hr	-6.906 °F/hr [-8.06 – -5.75]	-6.45 °F/hr	+0.456 °F/hr	0.5σ	✓ Accurate
10/22/26 05:20:00	10/22 04:20:00	+1h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.27	-7.11 °F/hr	-6.963 °F/hr [-7.83 – -6.09]	-6.21 °F/hr	+0.753 °F/hr	1.11σ	✓ Accurate
10/22/26 05:00:00	10/22 01:08:01	+4h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.29	-7.732 °F/hr	-7.008 °F/hr [-8.15 – -5.86]	-7.91 °F/hr	-0.902 °F/hr	1σ	✓ Accurate
10/22/26 04:50:00	10/22 03:50:00	+1h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.30	-6.965 °F/hr	-6.871 °F/hr [-7.74 – -6]	-7.91 °F/hr	-1.039 °F/hr	1.52σ	✓ Accurate
10/22/26 04:20:00	10/22 03:20:00	+1h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.30	-7.315 °F/hr	-7.167 °F/hr [-8.01 – -6.33]	-7.19 °F/hr	-0.023 °F/hr	0.03σ	✓ Accurate
10/22/26 04:00:00	10/22 00:04:06	+4h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.30	-7.917 °F/hr	-7.375 °F/hr [-8.52 – -6.23]	-7.98 °F/hr	-0.605 °F/hr	0.67σ	✓ Accurate
10/22/26 03:50:00	10/22 02:50:00	+1h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.30	-7.2 °F/hr	-7.024 °F/hr [-7.88 – -6.17]	-7.62 °F/hr	-0.596 °F/hr	0.89σ	✓ Accurate
10/22/26 03:20:00	10/22 02:20:00	+1h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.30	-7.332 °F/hr	-7.142 °F/hr [-7.98 – -6.3]	-8.3 °F/hr	-1.158 °F/hr	1.76σ	~ Minor Drift
10/22/26 03:20:00	10/21 23:20:00	+4h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.31	-7.908 °F/hr	-7.464 °F/hr [-8.59 – -6.34]	-8.3 °F/hr	-0.836 °F/hr	0.95σ	✓ Accurate
10/22/26 02:50:00	10/21 22:50:00	+4h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.29	-7.925 °F/hr	-7.545 °F/hr [-8.69 – -6.4]	-7.47 °F/hr	+0.075 °F/hr	0.08σ	✓ Accurate
10/22/26 02:50:00	10/22 01:50:00	+1h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.30	-7.572 °F/hr	-7.378 °F/hr [-8.23 – -6.53]	-7.47 °F/hr	-0.092 °F/hr	0.14σ	✓ Accurate
10/22/26 02:20:00	10/21 22:20:00	+4h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.28	-7.76 °F/hr	-7.392 °F/hr [-8.53 – -6.26]	-7.64 °F/hr	-0.248 °F/hr	0.28σ	✓ Accurate
10/22/26 02:00:00	10/22 01:08:01	+1h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.29	-7.732 °F/hr	-7.519 °F/hr [-8.37 – -6.67]	-6 °F/hr	+1.519 °F/hr	2.27σ	~ Minor Drift
10/22/26 01:50:00	10/21 21:50:00	+4h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.29	-7.713 °F/hr	-7.296 °F/hr [-8.45 – -6.15]	-7.49 °F/hr	-0.194 °F/hr	0.21σ	✓ Accurate
10/22/26 01:00:00	10/22 00:04:06	+1h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.30	-7.917 °F/hr	-7.848 °F/hr [-8.7 – -7]	-6.36 °F/hr	+1.488 °F/hr	2.23σ	~ Minor Drift
10/22/26 01:00:00	10/21 21:00:00	+4h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.25	-7.761 °F/hr	-7.475 °F/hr [-8.68 – -6.27]	-6.36 °F/hr	+1.115 °F/hr	1.18σ	✓ Accurate
10/22/26 00:00:00	10/21 23:00:00	+1h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.29	-7.92 °F/hr	-7.859 °F/hr [-8.73 – -6.99]	-8.16 °F/hr	-0.301 °F/hr	0.44σ	✓ Accurate
10/22/26 00:00:00	10/21 20:00:00	+4h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.27	-7.773 °F/hr	-7.428 °F/hr [-8.63 – -6.23]	-8.16 °F/hr	-0.732 °F/hr	0.77σ	✓ Accurate
10/21/26 23:00:00	10/21 19:00:00	+4h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.26	-7.694 °F/hr	-7.525 °F/hr [-8.72 – -6.33]	-7.98 °F/hr	-0.455 °F/hr	0.48σ	✓ Accurate
10/21/26 23:00:00	10/21 22:00:00	+1h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.27	-7.65 °F/hr	-7.54 °F/hr [-8.41 – -6.67]	-7.98 °F/hr	-0.44 °F/hr	0.64σ	✓ Accurate
10/21/26 22:30:00	10/21 21:30:00	+1h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.35	-7.796 °F/hr	-7.722 °F/hr [-8.55 – -6.89]	-8.14 °F/hr	-0.418 °F/hr	0.64σ	✓ Accurate
10/21/26 22:00:00	10/21 21:00:00	+1h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.28	-7.79 °F/hr	-7.743 °F/hr [-8.61 – -6.88]	-7.47 °F/hr	+0.273 °F/hr	0.4σ	✓ Accurate
10/21/26 22:00:00	10/21 18:00:00	+4h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.24	-7.675 °F/hr	-7.528 °F/hr [-8.74 – -6.31]	-7.47 °F/hr	+0.058 °F/hr	0.06σ	✓ Accurate
10/21/26 21:30:00	10/21 17:30:00	+4h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.33	-7.676 °F/hr	-7.491 °F/hr [-8.64 – -6.34]	-8.32 °F/hr	-0.829 °F/hr	0.92σ	✓ Accurate
10/21/26 21:00:00	10/21 17:00:00	+4h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.25	-7.746 °F/hr	-7.579 °F/hr [-8.79 – -6.37]	-7.85 °F/hr	-0.271 °F/hr	0.29σ	✓ Accurate
10/21/26 21:00:00	10/21 20:00:00	+1h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.27	-7.773 °F/hr	-7.699 °F/hr [-8.59 – -6.81]	-7.85 °F/hr	-0.151 °F/hr	0.22σ	✓ Accurate
10/21/26 20:00:00	10/21 19:00:00	+1h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.26	-7.694 °F/hr	-7.699 °F/hr [-8.59 – -6.81]	-7.58 °F/hr	+0.119 °F/hr	0.17σ	✓ Accurate
10/21/26 20:00:00	10/21 16:00:00	+4h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.25	-7.904 °F/hr	-7.731 °F/hr [-8.95 – -6.51]	-7.58 °F/hr	+0.151 °F/hr	0.16σ	✓ Accurate
10/21/26 19:00:00	10/21 18:00:00	+1h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.24	-7.675 °F/hr	-7.675 °F/hr [-8.58 – -6.77]	-7.58 °F/hr	+0.095 °F/hr	0.13σ	✓ Accurate
10/21/26 19:00:00	10/21 15:00:00	+4h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.24	-7.792 °F/hr	-7.905 °F/hr [-9.13 – -6.68]	-7.58 °F/hr	+0.325 °F/hr	0.34σ	✓ Accurate
10/21/26 18:30:00	10/21 17:30:00	+1h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.33	-7.676 °F/hr	-7.664 °F/hr [-8.52 – -6.81]	-8.05 °F/hr	-0.386 °F/hr	0.58σ	✓ Accurate
10/21/26 18:00:00	10/21 17:00:00	+1h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.25	-7.746 °F/hr	-7.738 °F/hr [-8.64 – -6.84]	-7.69 °F/hr	+0.048 °F/hr	0.07σ	✓ Accurate
10/21/26 18:00:00	10/21 14:00:00	+4h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.21	-7.449 °F/hr	-7.734 °F/hr [-8.97 – -6.49]	-7.69 °F/hr	+0.044 °F/hr	0.05σ	✓ Accurate
10/21/26 17:00:00	10/21 16:00:00	+1h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.25	-7.904 °F/hr	-7.917 °F/hr [-8.82 – -7.01]	-7.56 °F/hr	+0.357 °F/hr	0.5σ	✓ Accurate
10/21/26 17:00:00	10/21 13:00:00	+4h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.25	-7.245 °F/hr	-7.819 °F/hr [-9.04 – -6.6]	-7.56 °F/hr	+0.259 °F/hr	0.27σ	✓ Accurate
10/21/26 16:00:00	10/21 15:00:00	+1h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.24	-7.792 °F/hr	-7.922 °F/hr [-8.84 – -7.01]	-7.22 °F/hr	+0.702 °F/hr	0.98σ	✓ Accurate
10/21/26 16:00:00	10/21 12:00:00	+4h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.26	-6.907 °F/hr	-7.601 °F/hr [-8.81 – -6.39]	-7.22 °F/hr	+0.381 °F/hr	0.4σ	✓ Accurate
10/21/26 15:00:00	10/21 14:00:00	+1h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.21	-7.449 °F/hr	-7.56 °F/hr [-8.48 – -6.64]	-8 °F/hr	-0.44 °F/hr	0.61σ	✓ Accurate
10/21/26 15:00:00	10/21 11:00:00	+4h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.26	-6.648 °F/hr	-7.366 °F/hr [-8.58 – -6.15]	-8 °F/hr	-0.634 °F/hr	0.66σ	✓ Accurate
10/21/26 14:00:00	10/21 13:00:00	+1h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.25	-7.245 °F/hr	-7.473 °F/hr [-8.38 – -6.56]	-6.36 °F/hr	+1.113 °F/hr	1.56σ	✓ Accurate
10/21/26 14:00:00	10/21 10:00:00	+4h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.24	-6.662 °F/hr	-7.333 °F/hr [-8.55 – -6.12]	-6.36 °F/hr	+0.973 °F/hr	1.02σ	✓ Accurate
10/21/26 13:00:00	10/21 12:00:00	+1h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.26	-6.907 °F/hr	-7.103 °F/hr [-8 – -6.2]	-6.27 °F/hr	+0.833 °F/hr	1.18σ	✓ Accurate
10/21/26 13:00:00	10/21 09:00:00	+4h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.21	-6.536 °F/hr	-6.414 °F/hr [-7.65 – -5.18]	-6.27 °F/hr	+0.144 °F/hr	0.15σ	✓ Accurate
10/21/26 12:00:00	10/21 11:00:00	+1h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.26	-6.648 °F/hr	-6.785 °F/hr [-7.69 – -5.88]	-6.95 °F/hr	-0.165 °F/hr	0.23σ	✓ Accurate
10/21/26 12:00:00	10/21 08:00:00	+4h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.21	-6.51 °F/hr	-6.114 °F/hr [-7.34 – -4.88]	-6.95 °F/hr	-0.836 °F/hr	0.86σ	✓ Accurate
10/21/26 11:30:00	10/21 07:32:05	+4h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.19	-6.61 °F/hr	-6.301 °F/hr [-7.5 – -5.1]	-6.38 °F/hr	-0.079 °F/hr	0.08σ	✓ Accurate
10/21/26 11:00:00	10/21 10:00:00	+1h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.24	-6.662 °F/hr	-6.782 °F/hr [-7.69 – -5.88]	-7.17 °F/hr	-0.388 °F/hr	0.55σ	✓ Accurate
10/21/26 11:00:00	10/21 07:00:00	+4h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.18	-6.777 °F/hr	-6.45 °F/hr [-7.69 – -5.21]	-7.17 °F/hr	-0.72 °F/hr	0.74σ	✓ Accurate
10/21/26 10:00:00	10/21 09:00:00	+1h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.21	-6.536 °F/hr	-6.488 °F/hr [-7.41 – -5.57]	-6.18 °F/hr	+0.308 °F/hr	0.43σ	✓ Accurate
10/21/26 10:00:00	10/21 06:00:00	+4h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.17	-7.003 °F/hr	-6.917 °F/hr [-8.15 – -5.68]	-6.18 °F/hr	+0.737 °F/hr	0.76σ	✓ Accurate
10/21/26 09:00:00	10/21 08:00:00	+1h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.21	-6.51 °F/hr	-6.355 °F/hr [-7.27 – -5.44]	-6.07 °F/hr	+0.285 °F/hr	0.4σ	✓ Accurate
10/21/26 09:00:00	10/21 05:00:00	+4h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.16	-7.075 °F/hr	-6.927 °F/hr [-8.17 – -5.69]	-6.07 °F/hr	+0.857 °F/hr	0.88σ	✓ Accurate
10/21/26 08:30:00	10/21 07:32:05	+1h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.19	-6.61 °F/hr	-6.489 °F/hr [-7.38 – -5.6]	-6.38 °F/hr	+0.109 °F/hr	0.16σ	✓ Accurate
10/21/26 08:00:00	10/21 04:00:00	+4h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.16	-7.221 °F/hr	-7.232 °F/hr [-8.47 – -5.99]	-6.7 °F/hr	+0.532 °F/hr	0.55σ	✓ Accurate
10/21/26 08:00:00	10/21 07:00:00	+1h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.18	-6.777 °F/hr	-6.649 °F/hr [-7.57 – -5.73]	-6.7 °F/hr	-0.051 °F/hr	0.07σ	✓ Accurate
10/21/26 07:30:00	10/21 03:30:00	+4h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.13	-7.197 °F/hr	-7.068 °F/hr [-8.3 – -5.84]	-6.36 °F/hr	+0.708 °F/hr	0.73σ	✓ Accurate
10/21/26 07:30:00	10/21 06:30:00	+1h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.14	-6.885 °F/hr	-6.8 °F/hr [-7.71 – -5.89]	-6.36 °F/hr	+0.44 °F/hr	0.61σ	✓ Accurate
10/21/26 07:00:00	10/21 03:00:00	+4h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.16	-7.319 °F/hr	-7.346 °F/hr [-8.59 – -6.1]	-5.98 °F/hr	+1.366 °F/hr	1.39σ	✓ Accurate
10/21/26 07:00:00	10/21 06:00:00	+1h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.17	-7.003 °F/hr	-6.97 °F/hr [-7.89 – -6.05]	-5.98 °F/hr	+0.99 °F/hr	1.37σ	✓ Accurate
10/21/26 06:30:00	10/21 05:30:00	+1h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.16	-6.974 °F/hr	-6.858 °F/hr [-7.76 – -5.96]	-7.83 °F/hr	-0.972 °F/hr	1.38σ	✓ Accurate
10/21/26 06:30:00	10/21 02:30:00	+4h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.14	-7.451 °F/hr	-7.447 °F/hr [-8.65 – -6.25]	-7.83 °F/hr	-0.383 °F/hr	0.41σ	✓ Accurate
10/21/26 06:00:00	10/21 05:00:00	+1h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.16	-7.075 °F/hr	-7.017 °F/hr [-7.94 – -6.09]	-7.73 °F/hr	-0.713 °F/hr	0.99σ	✓ Accurate
10/21/26 05:40:00	10/21 01:49:34	+4h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.20	-7.149 °F/hr	-6.651 °F/hr [-7.78 – -5.52]	-6.86 °F/hr	-0.209 °F/hr	0.23σ	✓ Accurate
10/21/26 05:30:00	10/21 04:30:00	+1h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.13	-7.13 °F/hr	-7.123 °F/hr [-8.04 – -6.21]	-7.26 °F/hr	-0.137 °F/hr	0.19σ	✓ Accurate
10/21/26 05:00:00	10/21 04:00:00	+1h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.16	-7.221 °F/hr	-7.226 °F/hr [-8.15 – -6.3]	-7.33 °F/hr	-0.104 °F/hr	0.14σ	✓ Accurate
10/21/26 05:00:00	10/21 01:00:00	+4h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.17	-7.517 °F/hr	-7.489 °F/hr [-8.72 – -6.25]	-7.33 °F/hr	+0.159 °F/hr	0.16σ	✓ Accurate
10/21/26 04:30:00	10/21 03:30:00	+1h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.13	-7.197 °F/hr	-7.147 °F/hr [-8.06 – -6.23]	-7.98 °F/hr	-0.833 °F/hr	1.16σ	✓ Accurate
10/21/26 04:30:00	10/21 00:30:00	+4h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.15	-7.614 °F/hr	-7.757 °F/hr [-8.97 – -6.55]	-7.98 °F/hr	-0.223 °F/hr	0.23σ	✓ Accurate
10/21/26 04:00:00	10/21 03:00:00	+1h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.16	-7.319 °F/hr	-7.33 °F/hr [-8.26 – -6.4]	-7.91 °F/hr	-0.58 °F/hr	0.8σ	✓ Accurate
10/21/26 04:00:00	10/21 00:00:00	+4h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.18	-7.374 °F/hr	-6.95 °F/hr [-8.18 – -5.72]	-7.91 °F/hr	-0.96 °F/hr	0.99σ	✓ Accurate
10/21/26 03:30:00	10/21 02:30:00	+1h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.14	-7.451 °F/hr	-7.45 °F/hr [-8.34 – -6.56]	-7.69 °F/hr	-0.24 °F/hr	0.34σ	✓ Accurate
10/21/26 03:30:00	10/20 23:30:00	+4h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.14	-7.551 °F/hr	-7.185 °F/hr [-8.42 – -5.95]	-7.69 °F/hr	-0.505 °F/hr	0.52σ	✓ Accurate
10/21/26 02:40:00	10/21 01:49:34	+1h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.20	-7.149 °F/hr	-6.954 °F/hr [-7.8 – -6.11]	-6.07 °F/hr	+0.884 °F/hr	1.34σ	✓ Accurate
10/21/26 02:30:00	10/20 22:30:00	+4h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.15	-7.726 °F/hr	-7.285 °F/hr [-8.48 – -6.09]	-7.73 °F/hr	-0.445 °F/hr	0.47σ	✓ Accurate
10/21/26 02:00:00	10/21 01:00:00	+1h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.17	-7.517 °F/hr	-7.506 °F/hr [-8.43 – -6.59]	-7.42 °F/hr	+0.086 °F/hr	0.12σ	✓ Accurate
10/21/26 01:30:00	10/20 21:30:00	+4h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.15	-7.923 °F/hr	-7.987 °F/hr [-9.19 – -6.78]	-7.33 °F/hr	+0.657 °F/hr	0.69σ	✓ Accurate
10/21/26 01:30:00	10/21 00:30:00	+1h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.15	-7.614 °F/hr	-7.67 °F/hr [-8.57 – -6.77]	-7.33 °F/hr	+0.34 °F/hr	0.48σ	✓ Accurate
10/21/26 01:00:00	10/20 21:00:00	+4h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.19	-7.985 °F/hr	-8.177 °F/hr [-9.4 – -6.96]	-7.65 °F/hr	+0.527 °F/hr	0.55σ	✓ Accurate
10/21/26 01:00:00	10/21 00:00:00	+1h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.18	-7.374 °F/hr	-7.208 °F/hr [-8.12 – -6.29]	-7.65 °F/hr	-0.442 °F/hr	0.62σ	✓ Accurate
10/21/26 00:30:00	10/20 20:30:00	+4h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.15	-8.002 °F/hr	-8.264 °F/hr [-9.47 – -7.06]	-8.37 °F/hr	-0.106 °F/hr	0.11σ	✓ Accurate
10/21/26 00:30:00	10/20 23:30:00	+1h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.14	-7.551 °F/hr	-7.408 °F/hr [-8.33 – -6.49]	-8.37 °F/hr	-0.962 °F/hr	1.34σ	✓ Accurate
10/21/26 00:00:00	10/20 20:00:00	+4h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.17	-7.842 °F/hr	-7.912 °F/hr [-9.15 – -6.68]	-6.63 °F/hr	+1.282 °F/hr	1.32σ	✓ Accurate
10/20/26 23:30:00	10/20 19:30:00	+4h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.14	-7.857 °F/hr	-7.854 °F/hr [-9.07 – -6.64]	-6.88 °F/hr	+0.974 °F/hr	1.02σ	✓ Accurate
10/20/26 23:30:00	10/20 22:30:00	+1h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.15	-7.726 °F/hr	-7.553 °F/hr [-8.45 – -6.66]	-6.88 °F/hr	+0.673 °F/hr	0.96σ	✓ Accurate
10/20/26 22:30:00	10/20 21:30:00	+1h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.15	-7.923 °F/hr	-7.948 °F/hr [-8.84 – -7.05]	-6.3 °F/hr	+1.648 °F/hr	2.35σ	~ Minor Drift
10/20/26 22:30:00	10/20 18:30:00	+4h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.14	-7.878 °F/hr	-7.828 °F/hr [-9.05 – -6.61]	-6.3 °F/hr	+1.528 °F/hr	1.59σ	✓ Accurate
10/20/26 22:00:00	10/20 21:00:00	+1h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.19	-7.985 °F/hr	-8.06 °F/hr [-8.97 – -7.15]	-7.91 °F/hr	+0.15 °F/hr	0.21σ	✓ Accurate
10/20/26 21:30:00	10/20 20:30:00	+1h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.15	-8.002 °F/hr	-8.104 °F/hr [-9 – -7.21]	-7.83 °F/hr	+0.274 °F/hr	0.39σ	✓ Accurate
10/20/26 21:30:00	10/20 17:30:00	+4h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.14	-7.999 °F/hr	-8.277 °F/hr [-9.5 – -7.05]	-7.83 °F/hr	+0.447 °F/hr	0.46σ	✓ Accurate
10/20/26 21:00:00	10/20 20:00:00	+1h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.17	-7.842 °F/hr	-7.869 °F/hr [-8.79 – -6.95]	-7.83 °F/hr	+0.039 °F/hr	0.05σ	✓ Accurate
10/20/26 21:00:00	10/20 17:00:00	+4h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.16	-7.875 °F/hr	-7.982 °F/hr [-9.24 – -6.72]	-7.83 °F/hr	+0.152 °F/hr	0.15σ	✓ Accurate
10/20/26 20:30:00	10/20 19:30:00	+1h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.14	-7.857 °F/hr	-7.856 °F/hr [-8.76 – -6.95]	-8.23 °F/hr	-0.374 °F/hr	0.53σ	✓ Accurate
10/20/26 20:30:00	10/20 16:30:00	+4h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.14	-7.871 °F/hr	-8.073 °F/hr [-9.31 – -6.84]	-8.23 °F/hr	-0.157 °F/hr	0.16σ	✓ Accurate
10/20/26 20:00:00	10/20 16:00:00	+4h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.15	-7.816 °F/hr	-8.081 °F/hr [-9.35 – -6.81]	-8.1 °F/hr	-0.019 °F/hr	0.02σ	✓ Accurate
10/20/26 19:30:00	10/20 15:37:05	+4h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.16	-7.696 °F/hr	-7.84 °F/hr [-9.09 – -6.59]	-8 °F/hr	-0.16 °F/hr	0.16σ	✓ Accurate
10/20/26 19:30:00	10/20 18:30:00	+1h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.14	-7.878 °F/hr	-7.858 °F/hr [-8.77 – -6.95]	-8 °F/hr	-0.142 °F/hr	0.2σ	✓ Accurate
10/20/26 18:30:00	10/20 14:30:00	+4h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.13	-7.622 °F/hr	-7.775 °F/hr [-9.02 – -6.53]	-7.44 °F/hr	+0.335 °F/hr	0.34σ	✓ Accurate
10/20/26 18:30:00	10/20 17:30:00	+1h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.14	-7.999 °F/hr	-8.108 °F/hr [-9.02 – -7.19]	-7.44 °F/hr	+0.668 °F/hr	0.93σ	✓ Accurate
10/20/26 18:00:00	10/20 17:00:00	+1h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.16	-7.875 °F/hr	-7.917 °F/hr [-8.86 – -6.98]	-7.53 °F/hr	+0.387 °F/hr	0.53σ	✓ Accurate
10/20/26 17:30:00	10/20 13:30:00	+4h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.14	-7.543 °F/hr	-7.844 °F/hr [-9.09 – -6.6]	-8.19 °F/hr	-0.346 °F/hr	0.35σ	✓ Accurate
10/20/26 17:30:00	10/20 16:30:00	+1h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.14	-7.871 °F/hr	-7.95 °F/hr [-8.87 – -7.03]	-8.19 °F/hr	-0.24 °F/hr	0.33σ	✓ Accurate
10/20/26 17:00:00	10/20 16:00:00	+1h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.15	-7.816 °F/hr	-7.92 °F/hr [-8.87 – -6.97]	-7.33 °F/hr	+0.59 °F/hr	0.8σ	✓ Accurate
10/20/26 17:00:00	10/20 13:00:00	+4h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.15	-7.656 °F/hr	-8.226 °F/hr [-9.51 – -6.95]	-7.33 °F/hr	+0.896 °F/hr	0.89σ	✓ Accurate
10/20/26 16:30:00	10/20 15:37:05	+1h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.16	-7.696 °F/hr	-7.753 °F/hr [-8.69 – -6.82]	-7.73 °F/hr	+0.023 °F/hr	0.03σ	✓ Accurate
10/20/26 16:30:00	10/20 12:30:00	+4h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.14	-7.397 °F/hr	-7.802 °F/hr [-9.05 – -6.56]	-7.73 °F/hr	+0.072 °F/hr	0.07σ	✓ Accurate
10/20/26 16:00:00	10/20 12:00:00	+4h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.15	-7.234 °F/hr	-7.442 °F/hr [-8.72 – -6.16]	-7.33 °F/hr	+0.112 °F/hr	0.11σ	✓ Accurate
10/20/26 15:30:00	10/20 14:30:00	+1h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.13	-7.622 °F/hr	-7.682 °F/hr [-8.61 – -6.76]	-7.65 °F/hr	+0.032 °F/hr	0.04σ	✓ Accurate
10/20/26 15:30:00	10/20 11:30:00	+4h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.15	-7.084 °F/hr	-7.112 °F/hr [-8.35 – -5.87]	-7.65 °F/hr	-0.538 °F/hr	0.55σ	✓ Accurate
10/20/26 14:30:00	10/20 10:30:00	+4h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.14	-7.174 °F/hr	-7.352 °F/hr [-8.58 – -6.12]	-8.05 °F/hr	-0.698 °F/hr	0.72σ	✓ Accurate
10/20/26 14:30:00	10/20 13:30:00	+1h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.14	-7.543 °F/hr	-7.66 °F/hr [-8.59 – -6.73]	-8.05 °F/hr	-0.39 °F/hr	0.54σ	✓ Accurate
10/20/26 14:00:00	10/20 13:00:00	+1h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.15	-7.656 °F/hr	-7.879 °F/hr [-8.83 – -6.93]	-8.07 °F/hr	-0.191 °F/hr	0.26σ	✓ Accurate
10/20/26 13:30:00	10/20 12:30:00	+1h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.14	-7.397 °F/hr	-7.555 °F/hr [-8.48 – -6.63]	-8.36 °F/hr	-0.805 °F/hr	1.11σ	✓ Accurate
10/20/26 13:30:00	10/20 09:30:00	+4h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.14	-7.17 °F/hr	-7.412 °F/hr [-8.64 – -6.18]	-8.36 °F/hr	-0.948 °F/hr	0.98σ	✓ Accurate
10/20/26 13:00:00	10/20 12:00:00	+1h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.15	-7.234 °F/hr	-7.315 °F/hr [-8.27 – -6.36]	-7.91 °F/hr	-0.595 °F/hr	0.8σ	✓ Accurate
10/20/26 12:30:00	10/20 11:30:00	+1h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.15	-7.084 °F/hr	-7.095 °F/hr [-8.02 – -6.17]	-8 °F/hr	-0.905 °F/hr	1.25σ	✓ Accurate
10/20/26 12:30:00	10/20 08:30:00	+4h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.15	-6.988 °F/hr	-6.979 °F/hr [-8.2 – -5.76]	-8 °F/hr	-1.021 °F/hr	1.07σ	✓ Accurate
10/20/26 11:30:00	10/20 10:30:00	+1h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.14	-7.174 °F/hr	-7.243 °F/hr [-8.16 – -6.33]	-8.3 °F/hr	-1.057 °F/hr	1.47σ	✓ Accurate
10/20/26 11:30:00	10/20 07:30:00	+4h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.14	-6.985 °F/hr	-6.8 °F/hr [-8.02 – -5.58]	-8.3 °F/hr	-1.5 °F/hr	1.56σ	✓ Accurate
10/20/26 10:30:00	10/20 09:30:00	+1h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.14	-7.17 °F/hr	-7.264 °F/hr [-8.18 – -6.35]	-8.19 °F/hr	-0.926 °F/hr	1.29σ	✓ Accurate
10/20/26 09:30:00	10/20 08:30:00	+1h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.15	-6.988 °F/hr	-6.984 °F/hr [-7.89 – -6.08]	-8.05 °F/hr	-1.066 °F/hr	1.5σ	✓ Accurate
10/20/26 08:30:00	10/20 07:30:00	+1h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.14	-6.985 °F/hr	-6.913 °F/hr [-7.82 – -6]	-7.19 °F/hr	-0.277 °F/hr	0.39σ	✓ Accurate
10/20/26 07:30:00	10/20 03:30:00	+4h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.13	-7.277 °F/hr	-7.088 °F/hr [-8.31 – -5.87]	-6.79 °F/hr	+0.298 °F/hr	0.31σ	✓ Accurate
10/20/26 04:30:00	10/20 03:30:00	+1h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.13	-7.277 °F/hr	-7.203 °F/hr [-8.11 – -6.3]	-6.29 °F/hr	+0.913 °F/hr	1.28σ	✓ Accurate
10/20/26 03:30:00	10/19 23:30:00	+4h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.15	-7.593 °F/hr	-7.483 °F/hr [-8.68 – -6.28]	-7.4 °F/hr	+0.083 °F/hr	0.09σ	✓ Accurate
10/20/26 00:30:00	10/19 23:30:00	+1h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.15	-7.593 °F/hr	-7.55 °F/hr [-8.44 – -6.66]	-8.36 °F/hr	-0.81 °F/hr	1.16σ	✓ Accurate
10/19/26 23:30:00	10/19 19:30:00	+4h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.15	-7.636 °F/hr	-7.211 °F/hr [-8.45 – -5.97]	-7.33 °F/hr	-0.119 °F/hr	0.12σ	✓ Accurate
10/19/26 20:30:00	10/19 19:30:00	+1h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.15	-7.636 °F/hr	-7.47 °F/hr [-8.39 – -6.55]	-8.05 °F/hr	-0.58 °F/hr	0.8σ	✓ Accurate

Target Time	Predicted At	Horizon	Model & R²	Start Value	Predicted (80% Cone)	Actual Reading	Error (Actual − Pred)	Z-Error	Outcome
11/02/26 04:40:00	11/02 03:48:39	+1h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.95	45.527 °F/hr	45.11 °F/hr [44.41 – 45.82]	43.97 °F/hr	-1.14 °F/hr	2.06σ	~ Minor Drift
10/23/26 19:20:00	10/23 15:24:07	+4h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.18	-7.286 °F/hr	-7.109 °F/hr [-8.42 – -5.8]	28.58 °F/hr	+35.689 °F/hr	34.51σ	🚨 Diverged
10/23/26 16:20:00	10/23 15:24:07	+1h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.18	-7.286 °F/hr	-7.217 °F/hr [-8.2 – -6.24]	-2.92 °F/hr	+4.297 °F/hr	5.6σ	🚨 Diverged
10/22/26 02:00:00	10/22 01:08:01	+1h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.29	-7.732 °F/hr	-7.519 °F/hr [-8.37 – -6.67]	-6 °F/hr	+1.519 °F/hr	2.27σ	~ Minor Drift
10/22/26 01:00:00	10/22 00:04:06	+1h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.30	-7.917 °F/hr	-7.848 °F/hr [-8.7 – -7]	-6.36 °F/hr	+1.488 °F/hr	2.23σ	~ Minor Drift
10/20/26 22:30:00	10/20 21:30:00	+1h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.15	-7.923 °F/hr	-7.948 °F/hr [-8.84 – -7.05]	-6.3 °F/hr	+1.648 °F/hr	2.35σ	~ Minor Drift