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/ root / Lilac / Patio / Patio Temperature | RoC: -2.2 - 4.46 (°F/hr)

/ root / Lilac / Patio / Patio Temperature

No anomalies occurred in the selected time period — showing the most recent historical anomalies for this sensor.

Timestamp	Severity	Type	Value	Baseline	% vs Base	Rate of Change	Z-Value	Z-Rate	Confidence
11/01/26 01:42:33	CRITICAL	Extreme Rate Spike	66.2 °F/hr	69.67	-5%	-0.037	-1.12	-10.57	59.1%
11/01/26 01:22:22	CRITICAL	Extreme Rate Spike	66.2 °F/hr	69.67	-5%	-0.032	-1.12	-18.07	96.6%
11/01/26 01:17:19	CRITICAL	Extreme Rate Spike	66.74 °F/hr	69.67	-4.2%	-0.016	-0.95	-11.05	60.5%
11/01/26 01:02:11	CRITICAL	Extreme Rate Spike	66.38 °F/hr	69.66	-4.7%	-0.016	-1.06	-17.38	92.8%
10/28/26 15:36:13	WARNING	Forecast Divergence	85.64 °F/hr	83.549	+2.5%	2.068	2.66	-	99.5%
10/25/26 13:27:32	CRITICAL	Forecast Divergence (Critical)	81.14 °F/hr	71.382	+13.67%	2.134	24.69	-	99.5%
10/25/26 10:25:49	CRITICAL	Forecast Divergence (Critical)	69.62 °F/hr	68.572	+1.53%	2.134	3.57	-	99.5%
10/19/26 11:03:09	WARNING	Forecast Divergence	66.38 °F/hr	62.127	+6.85%	-0.345	3.05	-	99.5%
10/19/26 03:03:50	WARNING	Forecast Divergence	55.22 °F/hr	58.527	-5.65%	-0.703	2.54	-	99.5%
10/18/26 23:01:25	WARNING	Forecast Divergence	64.04 °F/hr	59.826	+7.04%	-2.358	3.4	-	99.5%
10/17/26 16:55:05	WARNING	Rate Spike	69.62 °F/hr	57.42	+21.3%	0.008	2.06	5.75	40.2%
10/15/26 18:44:27	WARNING	Rate Spike	75.2 °F/hr	82.98	-9.4%	-0.009	-1.84	-6.23	41.4%
10/15/26 16:38:19	CRITICAL	Extreme Rate Spike	86 °F/hr	83.99	+2.4%	-0.011	0.39	-7.88	41.6%
10/04/26 17:10:36	WARNING	Value Deviation	78.8 °F/hr	71.54	+10.2%	0.001	4.59	-	51%
10/04/26 17:05:34	WARNING	Value Deviation	78.44 °F/hr	71.51	+9.7%	0.003	4.52	-	50.3%
10/02/26 12:32:03	WARNING	Rate Spike	78.44 °F/hr	75.24	+4.3%	0.004	2.13	6	41.8%
10/01/26 04:44:31	CRITICAL	Extreme Rate Spike	78.08 °F/hr	84.2	-7.3%	-0.012	-2.01	-10.66	64.4%
09/30/26 14:57:05	WARNING	Rate Spike	88.16 °F/hr	87.05	+1.3%	-0.007	0.21	-5.16	27%
09/27/26 18:59:53	CRITICAL	Extreme Rate Spike	83.3 °F/hr	87.13	-4.4%	-0.012	-0.52	-7.71	41.5%
09/27/26 18:24:34	WARNING	Rate Spike	90.14 °F/hr	87.37	+3.2%	-0.01	0.37	-7.41	39.1%
09/23/26 18:47:03	CRITICAL	Extreme Rate Spike	91.04 °F/hr	88.67	+2.7%	-0.017	0.32	-11.53	59.4%
09/21/26 18:55:36	CRITICAL	Extreme Rate Spike	91.22 °F/hr	87.86	+3.8%	-0.02	0.4	-12.35	64%
09/20/26 18:22:15	WARNING	Rate Spike	93.74 °F/hr	89.55	+4.7%	-0.008	0.65	-5.06	28.9%
09/20/26 14:20:04	WARNING	Rate Spike	99.14 °F/hr	89.69	+10.5%	0.009	1.43	5.36	34.7%
09/10/26 15:33:00	CRITICAL	Extreme Rate Spike	96.08 °F/hr	92.69	+3.7%	-0.017	0.42	-10.21	53.4%
09/03/26 13:43:49	WARNING	Rate Spike	95.9 °F/hr	90.9	+5.5%	0.005	0.65	3.57	31%
09/02/26 17:47:30	WARNING	Rate Spike	100.22 °F/hr	93.05	+7.7%	-0.005	1	-3.64	34.3%
09/02/26 16:36:51	WARNING	Rate Spike	102.02 °F/hr	93.14	+9.5%	-0.005	1.22	-3.61	35.9%
08/31/26 17:04:59	WARNING	Rate Spike	101.84 °F/hr	93.36	+9.1%	-0.007	1.05	-4.19	38.7%
08/26/26 18:05:26	CRITICAL	Extreme Rate Spike	95.36 °F/hr	92.41	+3.2%	-0.016	0.49	-10.99	82.6%
08/25/26 08:17:07	CRITICAL	Extreme Rate Spike	81.5 °F/hr	97.19	-16.1%	-0.008	-1.73	-5.8	55.8%
08/15/26 16:23:09	WARNING	Rate Spike	104 °F/hr	93.26	+11.5%	0.006	1.42	3.91	39.8%
08/05/26 13:59:42	WARNING	Rate Spike	102.2 °F/hr	92.96	+9.9%	0.008	1.28	4.6	43.6%
08/04/26 13:05:37	WARNING	Rate Spike	98.96 °F/hr	91.99	+7.6%	0.005	0.92	3.52	32.8%
07/31/26 13:32:56	WARNING	Rate Spike	103.28 °F/hr	93.48	+10.5%	0.006	1.44	4.29	42.7%
07/30/26 13:34:30	WARNING	Rate Spike	100.4 °F/hr	92.72	+8.3%	0.007	1.13	4.35	40.5%

/ root / Lilac / Patio / Patio Temperature

📈 Forecast Chart All Sensors ↗

🔮 Next Short Forecast (+1h)

78.72 °F/hr (-0.56)

Target: 17:58 · 80% Cone: [77.83 – 79.61]

🔭 Next Long Forecast (+4h)

76.51 °F/hr (-2.77)

Target: 20:58 · 80% Cone: [75.31 – 77.71]

🎯 Out-of-Sample Accuracy

74.3% (35 checked)

MAE: 1.503 °F/hr · RMSE: 2.344 °F/hr · Fit R²=0.99

🚨 Historical Failures & Drift

6 diverged ⚡ 6 anom

6 minor drift · Max Z-Error: 24.69σ

Target Time	Predicted At	Horizon	Model & R²	Start Value	Predicted (80% Cone)	Actual Reading	Error (Actual − Pred)	Z-Error	Outcome
11/02/26 20:58:50 (in 3.8h)	11/02 17:03:11	+4h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.99	79.275 °F/hr	76.51 °F/hr [75.31 – 77.71]	⏳ Waiting	-	-	⏳ Pending
11/02/26 17:58:50 (in 46m)	11/02 17:03:11	+1h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.99	79.275 °F/hr	78.72 °F/hr [77.83 – 79.61]	⏳ Waiting	-	-	⏳ Pending
11/02/26 07:46:39	11/02 03:48:39	+4h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.99	69.186 °F/hr	68.514 °F/hr [67.6 – 69.43]	69.08 °F/hr	+0.566 °F/hr	0.79σ	✓ Accurate
11/02/26 04:46:39	11/02 03:48:39	+1h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.99	69.186 °F/hr	68.393 °F/hr [67.71 – 69.08]	68.54 °F/hr	+0.147 °F/hr	0.27σ	✓ Accurate

Target Time	Predicted At	Horizon	Model & R²	Start Value	Predicted (80% Cone)	Actual Reading	Error (Actual − Pred)	Z-Error	Outcome
11/02/26 20:58:50 (in 3.8h)	11/02 17:03:11	+4h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.99	79.275 °F/hr	76.51 °F/hr [75.31 – 77.71]	⏳ Waiting	-	-	⏳ Pending
11/02/26 17:58:50 (in 46m)	11/02 17:03:11	+1h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.99	79.275 °F/hr	78.72 °F/hr [77.83 – 79.61]	⏳ Waiting	-	-	⏳ Pending
11/02/26 07:46:39	11/02 03:48:39	+4h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.99	69.186 °F/hr	68.514 °F/hr [67.6 – 69.43]	69.08 °F/hr	+0.566 °F/hr	0.79σ	✓ Accurate
11/02/26 04:46:39	11/02 03:48:39	+1h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.99	69.186 °F/hr	68.393 °F/hr [67.71 – 69.08]	68.54 °F/hr	+0.147 °F/hr	0.27σ	✓ Accurate
10/30/26 09:07:34	10/30 05:11:48	+4h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.98	66.835 °F/hr	68.03 °F/hr [66.24 – 69.82]	66.56 °F/hr	-1.47 °F/hr	1.05σ	✓ Accurate
10/30/26 08:00:00	10/30 04:02:08	+4h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.99	67.489 °F/hr	66.809 °F/hr [65.98 – 67.64]	66.74 °F/hr	-0.069 °F/hr	0.11σ	✓ Accurate
10/30/26 06:07:34	10/30 05:11:48	+1h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.98	66.835 °F/hr	66.34 °F/hr [65.01 – 67.67]	66.92 °F/hr	+0.58 °F/hr	0.56σ	✓ Accurate
10/30/26 05:00:00	10/30 04:02:08	+1h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.99	67.489 °F/hr	66.782 °F/hr [66.16 – 67.4]	67.64 °F/hr	+0.858 °F/hr	1.77σ	~ Minor Drift
10/30/26 04:09:08	10/30 00:17:04	+4h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.99	68.597 °F/hr	65.797 °F/hr [64.68 – 66.91]	67.64 °F/hr	+1.843 °F/hr	2.1σ	~ Minor Drift
10/30/26 04:09:08	10/30 01:41:08	+4h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.98	68.837 °F/hr	66.993 °F/hr [65.19 – 68.79]	67.64 °F/hr	+0.647 °F/hr	0.46σ	✓ Accurate
10/30/26 01:09:08	10/30 00:17:04	+1h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.99	68.597 °F/hr	67.949 °F/hr [67.12 – 68.78]	No reading	-	-	No Reading
10/28/26 18:33:51	10/28 14:46:21	+4h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.99	81.913 °F/hr	80.713 °F/hr [79.37 – 82.06]	79.88 °F/hr	-0.833 °F/hr	0.79σ	✓ Accurate
10/28/26 15:33:51	10/28 14:46:21	+1h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.99	81.913 °F/hr	83.549 °F/hr [82.55 – 84.55]	85.64 °F/hr	+2.091 °F/hr	2.66σ	⚡ Anomaly Logged
10/27/26 20:20:27	10/27 16:30:54	+4h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.99	84.49 °F/hr	76.368 °F/hr [75.15 – 77.59]	76.82 °F/hr	+0.452 °F/hr	0.47σ	✓ Accurate
10/27/26 17:20:27	10/27 16:30:54	+1h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.99	84.49 °F/hr	83.449 °F/hr [82.54 – 84.36]	84.74 °F/hr	+1.291 °F/hr	1.81σ	~ Minor Drift
10/25/26 17:52:46	10/25 13:54:50	+4h	Local LOESS R²=1.00	80.998 °F/hr	83.144 °F/hr [82.49 – 83.8]	No reading	-	-	No Reading
10/25/26 14:52:46	10/25 13:54:50	+1h	Local LOESS R²=1.00	80.998 °F/hr	81.837 °F/hr [81.35 – 82.32]	81.68 °F/hr	-0.157 °F/hr	0.41σ	✓ Accurate
10/25/26 13:29:45	10/25 09:29:49	+4h	Local LOESS R²=0.94	66.769 °F/hr	71.382 °F/hr [71.05 – 71.71]	81.14 °F/hr	+9.758 °F/hr	24.69σ	⚡ Anomaly Logged
10/25/26 10:29:45	10/25 09:29:49	+1h	Local LOESS R²=0.94	66.769 °F/hr	68.572 °F/hr [68.33 – 68.82]	69.62 °F/hr	+1.048 °F/hr	3.57σ	⚡ Anomaly Logged
10/20/26 19:40:52	10/20 15:48:46	+4h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.99	81.845 °F/hr	74.236 °F/hr [72.65 – 75.82]	No reading	-	-	No Reading
10/20/26 19:19:43	10/20 15:21:31	+4h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.99	81.602 °F/hr	75.011 °F/hr [73.44 – 76.59]	No reading	-	-	No Reading
10/20/26 16:40:52	10/20 15:48:46	+1h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.99	81.845 °F/hr	82.002 °F/hr [80.82 – 83.18]	No reading	-	-	No Reading
10/20/26 16:19:43	10/20 15:21:31	+1h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.99	81.602 °F/hr	82.124 °F/hr [80.95 – 83.3]	No reading	-	-	No Reading
10/20/26 03:01:50	10/20 02:01:50	+1h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.99	58.834 °F/hr	57.954 °F/hr [56.4 – 59.5]	57.56 °F/hr	-0.394 °F/hr	0.32σ	✓ Accurate
10/20/26 03:00:12	10/19 23:00:12	+4h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.99	62.32 °F/hr	58.584 °F/hr [56.45 – 60.72]	57.56 °F/hr	-1.024 °F/hr	0.61σ	✓ Accurate
10/20/26 02:01:18	10/20 01:01:18	+1h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.99	60.076 °F/hr	59.223 °F/hr [57.67 – 60.77]	58.46 °F/hr	-0.763 °F/hr	0.63σ	✓ Accurate
10/20/26 00:00:12	10/19 23:00:12	+1h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.99	62.32 °F/hr	61.147 °F/hr [59.56 – 62.74]	61.34 °F/hr	+0.193 °F/hr	0.15σ	✓ Accurate
10/19/26 23:03:03	10/19 19:03:03	+4h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.99	74.252 °F/hr	64.9 °F/hr [62.75 – 67.05]	62.42 °F/hr	-2.48 °F/hr	1.47σ	✓ Accurate
10/19/26 20:03:03	10/19 19:03:03	+1h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.99	74.252 °F/hr	71.395 °F/hr [69.79 – 73]	68.54 °F/hr	-2.855 °F/hr	2.28σ	~ Minor Drift
10/19/26 19:00:52	10/19 15:00:52	+4h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.99	78.688 °F/hr	73.629 °F/hr [71.52 – 75.74]	72.14 °F/hr	-1.489 °F/hr	0.9σ	✓ Accurate
10/19/26 16:00:52	10/19 15:00:52	+1h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.99	78.688 °F/hr	79.28 °F/hr [77.71 – 80.85]	79.34 °F/hr	+0.06 °F/hr	0.05σ	✓ Accurate
10/19/26 15:03:09	10/19 11:03:09	+4h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.99	64.949 °F/hr	77.524 °F/hr [75.55 – 79.5]	77.54 °F/hr	+0.016 °F/hr	0.01σ	✓ Accurate
10/19/26 12:03:09	10/19 11:03:09	+1h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.99	64.949 °F/hr	69.335 °F/hr [67.86 – 70.81]	70.88 °F/hr	+1.545 °F/hr	1.34σ	✓ Accurate
10/19/26 11:00:58	10/19 07:00:58	+4h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.99	52.036 °F/hr	62.127 °F/hr [60.36 – 63.9]	66.38 °F/hr	+4.253 °F/hr	3.05σ	⚡ Anomaly Logged
10/19/26 08:00:58	10/19 07:00:58	+1h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.99	52.036 °F/hr	52.843 °F/hr [51.52 – 54.16]	50.9 °F/hr	-1.943 °F/hr	1.88σ	~ Minor Drift
10/19/26 07:03:50	10/19 03:03:50	+4h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.99	55.131 °F/hr	53.114 °F/hr [51.34 – 54.89]	51.8 °F/hr	-1.314 °F/hr	0.94σ	✓ Accurate
10/19/26 04:03:50	10/19 03:03:50	+1h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.99	55.131 °F/hr	53.95 °F/hr [52.63 – 55.27]	53.96 °F/hr	+0.01 °F/hr	0.01σ	✓ Accurate
10/19/26 03:01:25	10/18 23:01:25	+4h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.99	63.435 °F/hr	58.527 °F/hr [56.87 – 60.19]	55.22 °F/hr	-3.307 °F/hr	2.54σ	⚡ Anomaly Logged
10/19/26 00:01:25	10/18 23:01:25	+1h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.99	63.435 °F/hr	62.061 °F/hr [60.83 – 63.3]	61.34 °F/hr	-0.721 °F/hr	0.75σ	✓ Accurate
10/18/26 22:59:15	10/18 18:59:15	+4h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.99	70.494 °F/hr	59.826 °F/hr [58.25 – 61.41]	64.04 °F/hr	+4.214 °F/hr	3.4σ	⚡ Anomaly Logged
10/18/26 19:59:15	10/18 18:59:15	+1h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.99	70.494 °F/hr	67.455 °F/hr [66.28 – 68.63]	66.92 °F/hr	-0.535 °F/hr	0.58σ	✓ Accurate
10/18/26 19:02:03	10/18 15:02:03	+4h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.99	73.274 °F/hr	67.396 °F/hr [65.91 – 68.88]	69.98 °F/hr	+2.584 °F/hr	2.22σ	~ Minor Drift
10/18/26 16:02:03	10/18 15:02:03	+1h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.99	73.274 °F/hr	73.747 °F/hr [72.64 – 74.85]	74.84 °F/hr	+1.093 °F/hr	1.26σ	✓ Accurate

Target Time	Predicted At	Horizon	Model & R²	Start Value	Predicted (80% Cone)	Actual Reading	Error (Actual − Pred)	Z-Error	Outcome
10/30/26 04:09:08	10/30 00:17:04	+4h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.99	68.597 °F/hr	65.797 °F/hr [64.68 – 66.91]	67.64 °F/hr	+1.843 °F/hr	2.1σ	~ Minor Drift
10/28/26 15:33:51	10/28 14:46:21	+1h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.99	81.913 °F/hr	83.549 °F/hr [82.55 – 84.55]	85.64 °F/hr	+2.091 °F/hr	2.66σ	⚡ Anomaly Logged
10/25/26 13:29:45	10/25 09:29:49	+4h	Local LOESS R²=0.94	66.769 °F/hr	71.382 °F/hr [71.05 – 71.71]	81.14 °F/hr	+9.758 °F/hr	24.69σ	⚡ Anomaly Logged
10/25/26 10:29:45	10/25 09:29:49	+1h	Local LOESS R²=0.94	66.769 °F/hr	68.572 °F/hr [68.33 – 68.82]	69.62 °F/hr	+1.048 °F/hr	3.57σ	⚡ Anomaly Logged
10/19/26 20:03:03	10/19 19:03:03	+1h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.99	74.252 °F/hr	71.395 °F/hr [69.79 – 73]	68.54 °F/hr	-2.855 °F/hr	2.28σ	~ Minor Drift
10/19/26 11:00:58	10/19 07:00:58	+4h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.99	52.036 °F/hr	62.127 °F/hr [60.36 – 63.9]	66.38 °F/hr	+4.253 °F/hr	3.05σ	⚡ Anomaly Logged
10/19/26 03:01:25	10/18 23:01:25	+4h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.99	63.435 °F/hr	58.527 °F/hr [56.87 – 60.19]	55.22 °F/hr	-3.307 °F/hr	2.54σ	⚡ Anomaly Logged
10/18/26 22:59:15	10/18 18:59:15	+4h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.99	70.494 °F/hr	59.826 °F/hr [58.25 – 61.41]	64.04 °F/hr	+4.214 °F/hr	3.4σ	⚡ Anomaly Logged
10/18/26 19:02:03	10/18 15:02:03	+4h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.99	73.274 °F/hr	67.396 °F/hr [65.91 – 68.88]	69.98 °F/hr	+2.584 °F/hr	2.22σ	~ Minor Drift