/
root
/
Laker
/
Outside
/
Crawlspace
/
Crawlspace Temperature
|
Range:
48.01 -
51.24
(°F)
|
+6h:
47.62
°F
(-0.82)
|
|
| Timestamp | Severity | Type | Value | Baseline | % vs Base | Rate of Change | Z-Value | Z-Rate | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/02/26 04:49:24 | WARNING | Forecast Divergence | 48.17 °F | 49.168 | -2.03% | -0.088 | 3.4 | - |
99.5%
|
|
| Timestamp | Severity | Type | Value | Baseline | % vs Base | Rate of Change | Z-Value | Z-Rate | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/02/26 04:49:24 | WARNING | Forecast Divergence | 48.17 °F | 49.168 | -2.03% | -0.088 | 3.4 | - |
99.5%
|
| 10/25/26 01:15:01 | WARNING | Rate Spike | 53.45 °F | 55.61 | -3.9% | -0.002 | -2.42 | -6.13 |
44.1%
|
| 10/17/26 03:04:47 | WARNING | Rate Spike | 54.69 °F | 56.13 | -2.6% | -0.002 | -1.28 | -6.24 |
38.3%
|
| 10/14/26 16:44:46 | WARNING | Rate Spike | 57.72 °F | 58.46 | -1.3% | 0.002 | -0.63 | 6.7 |
37%
|
| 10/03/26 02:16:25 | WARNING | Rate Spike | 59.06 °F | 59.57 | -0.9% | -0.002 | -0.43 | -5.62 |
30.5%
|
| 09/30/26 21:16:25 | WARNING | Rate Spike | 59.48 °F | 61.06 | -2.6% | -0.001 | -1.29 | -5.4 |
34.2%
|
| 09/06/26 07:05:58 | WARNING | Rate Spike | 63.11 °F | 64.12 | -1.6% | 0.001 | -0.79 | 3.88 |
34.3%
|
| 09/05/26 16:00:58 | WARNING | Rate Spike | 64.48 °F | 63.76 | +1.1% | 0.001 | 0.57 | 3.57 |
30.2%
|
| 08/30/26 21:15:56 | WARNING | Rate Spike | 63.7 °F | 63.09 | +1% | 0.001 | 0.48 | 3.77 |
31%
|
| 08/29/26 17:40:55 | WARNING | Rate Spike | 63.56 °F | 62.78 | +1.2% | 0.001 | 0.62 | 3.6 |
30.9%
|
| 08/29/26 04:10:55 | WARNING | Rate Spike | 62.42 °F | 62.6 | -0.3% | -0.001 | -0.14 | -3.61 |
27%
|
| 08/28/26 10:15:55 | WARNING | Rate Spike | 62.52 °F | 62.97 | -0.7% | 0.001 | -0.36 | 4.14 |
32.5%
|
| 08/28/26 07:25:55 | WARNING | Rate Spike | 61.84 °F | 63.03 | -1.9% | 0.001 | -0.95 | 3.84 |
35.3%
|
| 08/27/26 06:45:54 | WARNING | Rate Spike | 62.78 °F | 63.69 | -1.4% | 0.001 | -0.71 | 4.49 |
38%
|
| 08/26/26 23:30:54 | WARNING | Rate Spike | 63.59 °F | 63.78 | -0.3% | -0.001 | -0.15 | -4.06 |
30.3%
|
| 08/25/26 19:10:54 | WARNING | Rate Spike | 65.19 °F | 64.37 | +1.3% | 0.001 | 0.64 | 3.78 |
32.3%
|
| 08/25/26 15:45:54 | WARNING | Rate Spike | 64.91 °F | 64.3 | +1% | 0.001 | 0.48 | 4.02 |
32.7%
|
| 08/23/26 18:35:53 | WARNING | Rate Spike | 64.48 °F | 64.24 | +0.4% | -0.001 | 0.19 | -4.2 |
31.5%
|
| 08/23/26 18:15:53 | CRITICAL | Extreme Rate Spike | 65.11 °F | 64.24 | +1.4% | 0.002 | 0.68 | 6.18 |
49.8%
|
| 08/23/26 16:20:53 | WARNING | Rate Spike | 64.91 °F | 64.22 | +1.1% | 0.001 | 0.54 | 4.65 |
37.7%
|
| 08/23/26 15:00:53 | WARNING | Rate Spike | 64.5 °F | 64.19 | +0.5% | -0.001 | 0.24 | -3.96 |
30.3%
|
| 08/23/26 06:15:53 | WARNING | Rate Spike | 63.46 °F | 63.97 | -0.8% | -0.001 | -0.4 | -3.68 |
29.6%
|
| 08/23/26 00:50:53 | WARNING | Rate Spike | 64.08 °F | 64.03 | +0.1% | -0.001 | 0.04 | -4 |
28.9%
|
| 08/22/26 16:25:53 | WARNING | Rate Spike | 64.66 °F | 63.88 | +1.2% | 0.001 | 0.61 | 3.81 |
32.4%
|
| 08/22/26 16:20:53 | WARNING | Rate Spike | 64.43 °F | 63.88 | +0.9% | 0.001 | 0.43 | 3.56 |
29.1%
|
| 08/21/26 15:40:52 | WARNING | Rate Spike | 63.7 °F | 63.61 | +0.1% | -0.001 | 0.07 | -3.76 |
27.4%
|
| 08/20/26 06:00:38 | WARNING | Rate Spike | 62.68 °F | 64.14 | -2.3% | -0.001 | -1.13 | -3.63 |
35.4%
|
| 08/18/26 17:35:37 | WARNING | Rate Spike | 64.94 °F | 63.52 | +2.2% | 0.001 | 1.12 | 3.57 |
34.8%
|
| 08/17/26 07:35:37 | WARNING | Rate Spike | 61.94 °F | 63.26 | -2.1% | -0.001 | -1.04 | -4.7 |
42.2%
|
| 08/17/26 07:20:37 | WARNING | Rate Spike | 62.14 °F | 63.26 | -1.8% | -0.001 | -0.89 | -3.57 |
32.9%
|
| 08/16/26 13:25:37 | WARNING | Rate Spike | 63.26 °F | 63.15 | +0.2% | 0.001 | 0.09 | 3.79 |
27.8%
|
| 08/14/26 17:25:36 | WARNING | Rate Spike | 64.12 °F | 63.56 | +0.9% | -0.001 | 0.44 | -4.68 |
37.1%
|
| 08/13/26 22:15:36 | WARNING | Rate Spike | 64.08 °F | 63.87 | +0.3% | 0.001 | 0.16 | 4.27 |
31.9%
|
| 08/12/26 18:00:35 | CRITICAL | Extreme Rate Spike | 65.07 °F | 64.57 | +0.8% | 0.001 | 0.38 | 5.56 |
42.9%
|
| 08/11/26 09:30:35 | WARNING | Rate Spike | 63.84 °F | 64.53 | -1.1% | 0.001 | -0.53 | 3.9 |
32.3%
|
| 08/09/26 23:35:34 | WARNING | Rate Spike | 65.29 °F | 64.44 | +1.3% | -0.001 | 0.66 | -3.8 |
32.7%
|
| 08/08/26 16:40:34 | WARNING | Rate Spike | 63.95 °F | 63.82 | +0.2% | 0.001 | 0.1 | 3.78 |
27.8%
|
| 08/07/26 10:35:33 | WARNING | Rate Spike | 63.54 °F | 63.67 | -0.2% | 0.001 | -0.1 | 4.51 |
33%
|
| 08/07/26 10:30:33 | WARNING | Rate Spike | 63.23 °F | 63.66 | -0.7% | 0.001 | -0.34 | 3.71 |
29.3%
|
| 08/04/26 21:10:33 | WARNING | Rate Spike | 64.53 °F | 64.4 | +0.2% | 0.001 | 0.1 | 4.13 |
30.4%
|
| 08/04/26 18:50:33 | WARNING | Rate Spike | 65.14 °F | 64.45 | +1.1% | -0.001 | 0.53 | -3.72 |
31%
|
| 08/04/26 18:20:33 | WARNING | Rate Spike | 65.44 °F | 64.45 | +1.5% | 0.001 | 0.77 | 5.05 |
42.5%
|
| 08/04/26 18:15:33 | WARNING | Rate Spike | 65.11 °F | 64.45 | +1% | 0.001 | 0.51 | 4.76 |
38.3%
|
| 08/03/26 12:54:39 | WARNING | Rate Spike | 63.84 °F | 63.67 | +0.3% | 0.001 | 0.14 | 4 |
29.7%
|
| 08/02/26 06:04:24 | CRITICAL | Extreme Rate Spike | 62.21 °F | 63.14 | -1.5% | 0.001 | -0.74 | 7.18 |
57.5%
|
| 07/31/26 20:44:24 | WARNING | Rate Spike | 64.2 °F | 64.94 | -1.1% | -0.001 | -0.57 | -3.93 |
32.8%
|
| 07/31/26 18:04:24 | WARNING | Rate Spike | 65.72 °F | 64.99 | +1.1% | 0.001 | 0.56 | 3.64 |
30.7%
|
| 07/31/26 16:19:24 | WARNING | Rate Spike | 65.04 °F | 64.93 | +0.2% | 0.001 | 0.08 | 4.38 |
32%
|
| 07/31/26 06:29:24 | WARNING | Rate Spike | 64.3 °F | 64.75 | -0.7% | -0.001 | -0.35 | -4.3 |
33.7%
|
| 07/30/26 05:19:08 | WARNING | Rate Spike | 63.48 °F | 64.48 | -1.6% | -0.001 | -0.78 | -4.73 |
40.2%
|
🎬 Walk-Forward Forecast Cone Replay
Quick Compare:
|
Speed:
Trail:
⏱ Playhead Frame
—
📍 Fitted Value & Velocity
—
📐 Active Model & Fit
—
🔮 +1h Cone Forecast vs Actual
—
🔭 +4h Cone Forecast vs Actual
—
🎯 Running Replay Scorecard
—
🔮 Next Short Forecast (+1h)
48.245 °F
(-0.17)
Target: 04:44 · 80% Cone: [47.97 – 48.52]
🔭 Next Long Forecast (+4h)
47.782 °F
(-0.63)
Target: 07:44 · 80% Cone: [47.42 – 48.15]
🎯 Out-of-Sample Accuracy
96.7%
(30 checked)
MAE: 0.248 °F · RMSE: 0.339 °F · Fit R²=0.96
🚨 Historical Failures & Drift
1 diverged
⚡ 1 anom
1 minor drift · Max Z-Error: 3.4σ
|
| Target Time | Predicted At | Horizon | Model & R² | Start Value | Predicted (80% Cone) | Actual Reading | Error (Actual − Pred) | Z-Error | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/03/26 07:44:25 (in 3.9h) | 11/03 03:48:24 | +4h | Diurnal + Trend R²=0.95 | 48.414 °F | 47.782 °F [47.42 – 48.15] | ⏳ Waiting | - | - | ⏳ Pending |
| 11/03/26 04:44:25 (in 52m) | 11/03 03:48:24 | +1h | Diurnal + Trend R²=0.95 | 48.414 °F | 48.245 °F [47.97 – 48.52] | ⏳ Waiting | - | - | ⏳ Pending |
| 11/02/26 07:48:32 | 11/02 03:48:39 | +4h | Diurnal + Trend R²=0.94 | 49.099 °F | 49.45 °F [49.21 – 49.69] | 49.3 °F | -0.15 °F | 0.38σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 11/02/26 04:48:32 | 11/02 03:48:39 | +1h | Diurnal + Trend R²=0.94 | 49.099 °F | 49.168 °F [48.99 – 49.35] | 48.17 °F | -0.998 °F | 3.4σ | ⚡ Anomaly Logged |
|
| Target Time | Predicted At | Horizon | Model & R² | Start Value | Predicted (80% Cone) | Actual Reading | Error (Actual − Pred) | Z-Error | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/03/26 07:44:25 (in 3.9h) | 11/03 03:48:24 | +4h | Diurnal + Trend R²=0.95 | 48.414 °F | 47.782 °F [47.42 – 48.15] | ⏳ Waiting | - | - | ⏳ Pending |
| 11/03/26 04:44:25 (in 52m) | 11/03 03:48:24 | +1h | Diurnal + Trend R²=0.95 | 48.414 °F | 48.245 °F [47.97 – 48.52] | ⏳ Waiting | - | - | ⏳ Pending |
| 11/02/26 07:48:32 | 11/02 03:48:39 | +4h | Diurnal + Trend R²=0.94 | 49.099 °F | 49.45 °F [49.21 – 49.69] | 49.3 °F | -0.15 °F | 0.38σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 11/02/26 04:48:32 | 11/02 03:48:39 | +1h | Diurnal + Trend R²=0.94 | 49.099 °F | 49.168 °F [48.99 – 49.35] | 48.17 °F | -0.998 °F | 3.4σ | ⚡ Anomaly Logged |
| 10/25/26 17:50:01 | 10/25 13:54:50 | +4h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.98 | 53.124 °F | 53.197 °F [52.87 – 53.52] | No reading | - | - | No Reading |
| 10/25/26 14:50:01 | 10/25 13:54:50 | +1h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.98 | 53.124 °F | 53.152 °F [52.91 – 53.4] | No reading | - | - | No Reading |
| 10/23/26 19:19:58 | 10/23 15:24:07 | +4h | Diurnal + Trend R²=0.97 | 57.452 °F | 56.67 °F [56.26 – 57.08] | 57.19 °F | +0.52 °F | 1.32σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/23/26 16:19:58 | 10/23 15:24:07 | +1h | Diurnal + Trend R²=0.97 | 57.452 °F | 57.257 °F [56.95 – 57.57] | 57.39 °F | +0.133 °F | 0.45σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/21/26 09:29:57 | 10/21 05:31:18 | +4h | Diurnal + Trend R²=0.97 | 57.935 °F | 57.789 °F [57.4 – 58.18] | 58.1 °F | +0.311 °F | 0.79σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/21/26 06:29:57 | 10/21 05:31:18 | +1h | Diurnal + Trend R²=0.97 | 57.935 °F | 57.752 °F [57.46 – 58.04] | 57.74 °F | -0.012 °F | 0.04σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/21/26 05:44:57 | 10/21 01:49:34 | +4h | Diurnal + Trend R²=0.97 | 58.224 °F | 57.113 °F [56.86 – 57.36] | 57.87 °F | +0.757 °F | 1.92σ | ~ Minor Drift |
| 10/21/26 02:44:57 | 10/21 01:49:34 | +1h | Diurnal + Trend R²=0.97 | 58.224 °F | 57.937 °F [57.75 – 58.12] | 58.18 °F | +0.243 °F | 0.83σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/20/26 19:34:57 | 10/20 15:37:05 | +4h | Diurnal + Trend R²=0.96 | 58.156 °F | 58.474 °F [58.13 – 58.82] | 58.41 °F | -0.064 °F | 0.16σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/20/26 16:34:57 | 10/20 15:37:05 | +1h | Diurnal + Trend R²=0.96 | 58.156 °F | 58.32 °F [58.07 – 58.58] | 58.28 °F | -0.04 °F | 0.14σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/20/26 14:49:57 | 10/20 13:49:57 | +1h | Diurnal + Trend R²=0.96 | 57.979 °F | 58.334 °F [58.03 – 58.63] | 58.18 °F | -0.154 °F | 0.53σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/20/26 14:49:57 | 10/20 10:49:57 | +4h | Diurnal + Trend R²=0.96 | 57.08 °F | 58.522 °F [58.13 – 58.92] | 58.18 °F | -0.342 °F | 0.87σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/20/26 13:49:57 | 10/20 12:49:57 | +1h | Diurnal + Trend R²=0.97 | 57.673 °F | 58.074 °F [57.78 – 58.37] | 57.95 °F | -0.124 °F | 0.42σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/20/26 11:49:57 | 10/20 10:49:57 | +1h | Diurnal + Trend R²=0.96 | 57.08 °F | 57.46 °F [57.17 – 57.76] | 57.24 °F | -0.22 °F | 0.75σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/20/26 10:49:57 | 10/20 06:49:57 | +4h | Diurnal + Trend R²=0.97 | 56.547 °F | 57.587 °F [57.18 – 57.99] | 57.19 °F | -0.397 °F | 1σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/20/26 07:49:57 | 10/20 06:49:57 | +1h | Diurnal + Trend R²=0.97 | 56.547 °F | 56.72 °F [56.42 – 57.02] | 56.68 °F | -0.04 °F | 0.14σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/20/26 06:49:57 | 10/20 02:49:57 | +4h | Diurnal + Trend R²=0.97 | 56.897 °F | 56.687 °F [56.28 – 57.09] | 56.52 °F | -0.167 °F | 0.42σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/20/26 03:49:57 | 10/20 02:49:57 | +1h | Diurnal + Trend R²=0.97 | 56.897 °F | 56.74 °F [56.44 – 57.04] | 56.62 °F | -0.12 °F | 0.41σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/20/26 02:49:57 | 10/19 22:49:57 | +4h | Diurnal + Trend R²=0.97 | 57.627 °F | 56.78 °F [56.37 – 57.2] | 56.8 °F | +0.02 °F | 0.05σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/19/26 23:49:57 | 10/19 22:49:57 | +1h | Diurnal + Trend R²=0.97 | 57.627 °F | 57.405 °F [57.1 – 57.71] | 57.44 °F | +0.035 °F | 0.12σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/19/26 22:49:57 | 10/19 18:49:57 | +4h | Diurnal + Trend R²=0.96 | 58.58 °F | 58.092 °F [57.67 – 58.51] | 57.64 °F | -0.522 °F | 1.32σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/19/26 19:49:57 | 10/19 18:49:57 | +1h | Diurnal + Trend R²=0.96 | 58.58 °F | 58.591 °F [58.28 – 58.9] | 58.36 °F | -0.231 °F | 0.79σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/19/26 18:49:57 | 10/19 14:49:57 | +4h | Diurnal + Trend R²=0.95 | 57.676 °F | 58.198 °F [57.78 – 58.62] | 58.36 °F | +0.162 °F | 0.41σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/19/26 15:49:57 | 10/19 14:49:57 | +1h | Diurnal + Trend R²=0.95 | 57.676 °F | 57.855 °F [57.54 – 58.17] | 58.18 °F | +0.325 °F | 1.11σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/19/26 14:49:57 | 10/19 10:49:57 | +4h | Diurnal + Trend R²=0.95 | 56.947 °F | 58.28 °F [57.88 – 58.68] | 57.67 °F | -0.61 °F | 1.54σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/19/26 11:49:57 | 10/19 10:49:57 | +1h | Diurnal + Trend R²=0.95 | 56.947 °F | 57.337 °F [57.04 – 57.64] | 57.49 °F | +0.153 °F | 0.52σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/19/26 10:49:57 | 10/19 06:49:57 | +4h | Diurnal + Trend R²=0.96 | 56.111 °F | 56.883 °F [56.5 – 57.26] | 57 °F | +0.177 °F | 0.45σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/19/26 07:49:57 | 10/19 06:49:57 | +1h | Diurnal + Trend R²=0.96 | 56.111 °F | 56.191 °F [55.91 – 56.48] | 56.17 °F | -0.021 °F | 0.07σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/19/26 06:49:56 | 10/19 02:49:56 | +4h | Diurnal + Trend R²=0.97 | 56.198 °F | 55.672 °F [55.3 – 56.04] | 55.99 °F | +0.318 °F | 0.8σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/19/26 03:49:56 | 10/19 02:49:56 | +1h | Diurnal + Trend R²=0.97 | 56.198 °F | 55.966 °F [55.69 – 56.24] | 56.04 °F | +0.074 °F | 0.25σ | ✓ Accurate |
| Target Time | Predicted At | Horizon | Model & R² | Start Value | Predicted (80% Cone) | Actual Reading | Error (Actual − Pred) | Z-Error | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/02/26 04:48:32 | 11/02 03:48:39 | +1h | Diurnal + Trend R²=0.94 | 49.099 °F | 49.168 °F [48.99 – 49.35] | 48.17 °F | -0.998 °F | 3.4σ | ⚡ Anomaly Logged |