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/ root / Laker / Outside / Crawlspace / Crawlspace Temperature | RoC: -0.81 - 0.64 (°F/hr)

/ root / Laker / Outside / Crawlspace / Crawlspace Temperature

Timestamp	Severity	Type	Value	Baseline	% vs Base	Rate of Change	Z-Value	Z-Rate	Confidence
11/02/26 04:49:24	WARNING	Forecast Divergence	48.17 °F/hr	49.168	-2.03%	-0.088	3.4	-	99.5%

Timestamp	Severity	Type	Value	Baseline	% vs Base	Rate of Change	Z-Value	Z-Rate	Confidence
11/02/26 04:49:24	WARNING	Forecast Divergence	48.17 °F/hr	49.168	-2.03%	-0.088	3.4	-	99.5%
10/25/26 01:15:01	WARNING	Rate Spike	53.45 °F/hr	55.61	-3.9%	-0.002	-2.42	-6.13	44.1%
10/17/26 03:04:47	WARNING	Rate Spike	54.69 °F/hr	56.13	-2.6%	-0.002	-1.28	-6.24	38.3%
10/14/26 16:44:46	WARNING	Rate Spike	57.72 °F/hr	58.46	-1.3%	0.002	-0.63	6.7	37%
10/03/26 02:16:25	WARNING	Rate Spike	59.06 °F/hr	59.57	-0.9%	-0.002	-0.43	-5.62	30.5%
09/30/26 21:16:25	WARNING	Rate Spike	59.48 °F/hr	61.06	-2.6%	-0.001	-1.29	-5.4	34.2%
09/06/26 07:05:58	WARNING	Rate Spike	63.11 °F/hr	64.12	-1.6%	0.001	-0.79	3.88	34.3%
09/05/26 16:00:58	WARNING	Rate Spike	64.48 °F/hr	63.76	+1.1%	0.001	0.57	3.57	30.2%
08/30/26 21:15:56	WARNING	Rate Spike	63.7 °F/hr	63.09	+1%	0.001	0.48	3.77	31%
08/29/26 17:40:55	WARNING	Rate Spike	63.56 °F/hr	62.78	+1.2%	0.001	0.62	3.6	30.9%
08/29/26 04:10:55	WARNING	Rate Spike	62.42 °F/hr	62.6	-0.3%	-0.001	-0.14	-3.61	27%
08/28/26 10:15:55	WARNING	Rate Spike	62.52 °F/hr	62.97	-0.7%	0.001	-0.36	4.14	32.5%
08/28/26 07:25:55	WARNING	Rate Spike	61.84 °F/hr	63.03	-1.9%	0.001	-0.95	3.84	35.3%
08/27/26 06:45:54	WARNING	Rate Spike	62.78 °F/hr	63.69	-1.4%	0.001	-0.71	4.49	38%
08/26/26 23:30:54	WARNING	Rate Spike	63.59 °F/hr	63.78	-0.3%	-0.001	-0.15	-4.06	30.3%
08/25/26 19:10:54	WARNING	Rate Spike	65.19 °F/hr	64.37	+1.3%	0.001	0.64	3.78	32.3%
08/25/26 15:45:54	WARNING	Rate Spike	64.91 °F/hr	64.3	+1%	0.001	0.48	4.02	32.7%
08/23/26 18:35:53	WARNING	Rate Spike	64.48 °F/hr	64.24	+0.4%	-0.001	0.19	-4.2	31.5%
08/23/26 18:15:53	CRITICAL	Extreme Rate Spike	65.11 °F/hr	64.24	+1.4%	0.002	0.68	6.18	49.8%
08/23/26 16:20:53	WARNING	Rate Spike	64.91 °F/hr	64.22	+1.1%	0.001	0.54	4.65	37.7%
08/23/26 15:00:53	WARNING	Rate Spike	64.5 °F/hr	64.19	+0.5%	-0.001	0.24	-3.96	30.3%
08/23/26 06:15:53	WARNING	Rate Spike	63.46 °F/hr	63.97	-0.8%	-0.001	-0.4	-3.68	29.6%
08/23/26 00:50:53	WARNING	Rate Spike	64.08 °F/hr	64.03	+0.1%	-0.001	0.04	-4	28.9%
08/22/26 16:25:53	WARNING	Rate Spike	64.66 °F/hr	63.88	+1.2%	0.001	0.61	3.81	32.4%
08/22/26 16:20:53	WARNING	Rate Spike	64.43 °F/hr	63.88	+0.9%	0.001	0.43	3.56	29.1%
08/21/26 15:40:52	WARNING	Rate Spike	63.7 °F/hr	63.61	+0.1%	-0.001	0.07	-3.76	27.4%
08/20/26 06:00:38	WARNING	Rate Spike	62.68 °F/hr	64.14	-2.3%	-0.001	-1.13	-3.63	35.4%
08/18/26 17:35:37	WARNING	Rate Spike	64.94 °F/hr	63.52	+2.2%	0.001	1.12	3.57	34.8%
08/17/26 07:35:37	WARNING	Rate Spike	61.94 °F/hr	63.26	-2.1%	-0.001	-1.04	-4.7	42.2%
08/17/26 07:20:37	WARNING	Rate Spike	62.14 °F/hr	63.26	-1.8%	-0.001	-0.89	-3.57	32.9%
08/16/26 13:25:37	WARNING	Rate Spike	63.26 °F/hr	63.15	+0.2%	0.001	0.09	3.79	27.8%
08/14/26 17:25:36	WARNING	Rate Spike	64.12 °F/hr	63.56	+0.9%	-0.001	0.44	-4.68	37.1%
08/13/26 22:15:36	WARNING	Rate Spike	64.08 °F/hr	63.87	+0.3%	0.001	0.16	4.27	31.9%
08/12/26 18:00:35	CRITICAL	Extreme Rate Spike	65.07 °F/hr	64.57	+0.8%	0.001	0.38	5.56	42.9%
08/11/26 09:30:35	WARNING	Rate Spike	63.84 °F/hr	64.53	-1.1%	0.001	-0.53	3.9	32.3%
08/09/26 23:35:34	WARNING	Rate Spike	65.29 °F/hr	64.44	+1.3%	-0.001	0.66	-3.8	32.7%
08/08/26 16:40:34	WARNING	Rate Spike	63.95 °F/hr	63.82	+0.2%	0.001	0.1	3.78	27.8%
08/07/26 10:35:33	WARNING	Rate Spike	63.54 °F/hr	63.67	-0.2%	0.001	-0.1	4.51	33%
08/07/26 10:30:33	WARNING	Rate Spike	63.23 °F/hr	63.66	-0.7%	0.001	-0.34	3.71	29.3%
08/04/26 21:10:33	WARNING	Rate Spike	64.53 °F/hr	64.4	+0.2%	0.001	0.1	4.13	30.4%
08/04/26 18:50:33	WARNING	Rate Spike	65.14 °F/hr	64.45	+1.1%	-0.001	0.53	-3.72	31%
08/04/26 18:20:33	WARNING	Rate Spike	65.44 °F/hr	64.45	+1.5%	0.001	0.77	5.05	42.5%
08/04/26 18:15:33	WARNING	Rate Spike	65.11 °F/hr	64.45	+1%	0.001	0.51	4.76	38.3%
08/03/26 12:54:39	WARNING	Rate Spike	63.84 °F/hr	63.67	+0.3%	0.001	0.14	4	29.7%
08/02/26 06:04:24	CRITICAL	Extreme Rate Spike	62.21 °F/hr	63.14	-1.5%	0.001	-0.74	7.18	57.5%
07/31/26 20:44:24	WARNING	Rate Spike	64.2 °F/hr	64.94	-1.1%	-0.001	-0.57	-3.93	32.8%
07/31/26 18:04:24	WARNING	Rate Spike	65.72 °F/hr	64.99	+1.1%	0.001	0.56	3.64	30.7%
07/31/26 16:19:24	WARNING	Rate Spike	65.04 °F/hr	64.93	+0.2%	0.001	0.08	4.38	32%
07/31/26 06:29:24	WARNING	Rate Spike	64.3 °F/hr	64.75	-0.7%	-0.001	-0.35	-4.3	33.7%
07/30/26 05:19:08	WARNING	Rate Spike	63.48 °F/hr	64.48	-1.6%	-0.001	-0.78	-4.73	40.2%

/ root / Laker / Outside / Crawlspace / Crawlspace Temperature

📈 Forecast Chart All Sensors ↗

🔮 Next Short Forecast (+1h)

48.245 °F/hr (-0.17)

Target: 04:44 · 80% Cone: [47.97 – 48.52]

🔭 Next Long Forecast (+4h)

47.782 °F/hr (-0.63)

Target: 07:44 · 80% Cone: [47.42 – 48.15]

🎯 Out-of-Sample Accuracy

96.7% (30 checked)

MAE: 0.248 °F/hr · RMSE: 0.339 °F/hr · Fit R²=0.96

🚨 Historical Failures & Drift

1 diverged ⚡ 1 anom

1 minor drift · Max Z-Error: 3.4σ

Target Time	Predicted At	Horizon	Model & R²	Start Value	Predicted (80% Cone)	Actual Reading	Error (Actual − Pred)	Z-Error	Outcome
11/03/26 07:44:25 (in 3.9h)	11/03 03:48:24	+4h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.95	48.414 °F/hr	47.782 °F/hr [47.42 – 48.15]	⏳ Waiting	-	-	⏳ Pending
11/03/26 04:44:25 (in 54m)	11/03 03:48:24	+1h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.95	48.414 °F/hr	48.245 °F/hr [47.97 – 48.52]	⏳ Waiting	-	-	⏳ Pending
11/02/26 07:48:32	11/02 03:48:39	+4h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.94	49.099 °F/hr	49.45 °F/hr [49.21 – 49.69]	49.3 °F/hr	-0.15 °F/hr	0.38σ	✓ Accurate
11/02/26 04:48:32	11/02 03:48:39	+1h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.94	49.099 °F/hr	49.168 °F/hr [48.99 – 49.35]	48.17 °F/hr	-0.998 °F/hr	3.4σ	⚡ Anomaly Logged

Target Time	Predicted At	Horizon	Model & R²	Start Value	Predicted (80% Cone)	Actual Reading	Error (Actual − Pred)	Z-Error	Outcome
11/03/26 07:44:25 (in 3.9h)	11/03 03:48:24	+4h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.95	48.414 °F/hr	47.782 °F/hr [47.42 – 48.15]	⏳ Waiting	-	-	⏳ Pending
11/03/26 04:44:25 (in 54m)	11/03 03:48:24	+1h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.95	48.414 °F/hr	48.245 °F/hr [47.97 – 48.52]	⏳ Waiting	-	-	⏳ Pending
11/02/26 07:48:32	11/02 03:48:39	+4h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.94	49.099 °F/hr	49.45 °F/hr [49.21 – 49.69]	49.3 °F/hr	-0.15 °F/hr	0.38σ	✓ Accurate
11/02/26 04:48:32	11/02 03:48:39	+1h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.94	49.099 °F/hr	49.168 °F/hr [48.99 – 49.35]	48.17 °F/hr	-0.998 °F/hr	3.4σ	⚡ Anomaly Logged
10/25/26 17:50:01	10/25 13:54:50	+4h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.98	53.124 °F/hr	53.197 °F/hr [52.87 – 53.52]	No reading	-	-	No Reading
10/25/26 14:50:01	10/25 13:54:50	+1h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.98	53.124 °F/hr	53.152 °F/hr [52.91 – 53.4]	No reading	-	-	No Reading
10/23/26 19:19:58	10/23 15:24:07	+4h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.97	57.452 °F/hr	56.67 °F/hr [56.26 – 57.08]	57.19 °F/hr	+0.52 °F/hr	1.32σ	✓ Accurate
10/23/26 16:19:58	10/23 15:24:07	+1h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.97	57.452 °F/hr	57.257 °F/hr [56.95 – 57.57]	57.39 °F/hr	+0.133 °F/hr	0.45σ	✓ Accurate
10/21/26 09:29:57	10/21 05:31:18	+4h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.97	57.935 °F/hr	57.789 °F/hr [57.4 – 58.18]	58.1 °F/hr	+0.311 °F/hr	0.79σ	✓ Accurate
10/21/26 06:29:57	10/21 05:31:18	+1h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.97	57.935 °F/hr	57.752 °F/hr [57.46 – 58.04]	57.74 °F/hr	-0.012 °F/hr	0.04σ	✓ Accurate
10/21/26 05:44:57	10/21 01:49:34	+4h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.97	58.224 °F/hr	57.113 °F/hr [56.86 – 57.36]	57.87 °F/hr	+0.757 °F/hr	1.92σ	~ Minor Drift
10/21/26 02:44:57	10/21 01:49:34	+1h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.97	58.224 °F/hr	57.937 °F/hr [57.75 – 58.12]	58.18 °F/hr	+0.243 °F/hr	0.83σ	✓ Accurate
10/20/26 19:34:57	10/20 15:37:05	+4h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.96	58.156 °F/hr	58.474 °F/hr [58.13 – 58.82]	58.41 °F/hr	-0.064 °F/hr	0.16σ	✓ Accurate
10/20/26 16:34:57	10/20 15:37:05	+1h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.96	58.156 °F/hr	58.32 °F/hr [58.07 – 58.58]	58.28 °F/hr	-0.04 °F/hr	0.14σ	✓ Accurate
10/20/26 14:49:57	10/20 13:49:57	+1h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.96	57.979 °F/hr	58.334 °F/hr [58.03 – 58.63]	58.18 °F/hr	-0.154 °F/hr	0.53σ	✓ Accurate
10/20/26 14:49:57	10/20 10:49:57	+4h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.96	57.08 °F/hr	58.522 °F/hr [58.13 – 58.92]	58.18 °F/hr	-0.342 °F/hr	0.87σ	✓ Accurate
10/20/26 13:49:57	10/20 12:49:57	+1h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.97	57.673 °F/hr	58.074 °F/hr [57.78 – 58.37]	57.95 °F/hr	-0.124 °F/hr	0.42σ	✓ Accurate
10/20/26 11:49:57	10/20 10:49:57	+1h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.96	57.08 °F/hr	57.46 °F/hr [57.17 – 57.76]	57.24 °F/hr	-0.22 °F/hr	0.75σ	✓ Accurate
10/20/26 10:49:57	10/20 06:49:57	+4h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.97	56.547 °F/hr	57.587 °F/hr [57.18 – 57.99]	57.19 °F/hr	-0.397 °F/hr	1σ	✓ Accurate
10/20/26 07:49:57	10/20 06:49:57	+1h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.97	56.547 °F/hr	56.72 °F/hr [56.42 – 57.02]	56.68 °F/hr	-0.04 °F/hr	0.14σ	✓ Accurate
10/20/26 06:49:57	10/20 02:49:57	+4h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.97	56.897 °F/hr	56.687 °F/hr [56.28 – 57.09]	56.52 °F/hr	-0.167 °F/hr	0.42σ	✓ Accurate
10/20/26 03:49:57	10/20 02:49:57	+1h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.97	56.897 °F/hr	56.74 °F/hr [56.44 – 57.04]	56.62 °F/hr	-0.12 °F/hr	0.41σ	✓ Accurate
10/20/26 02:49:57	10/19 22:49:57	+4h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.97	57.627 °F/hr	56.78 °F/hr [56.37 – 57.2]	56.8 °F/hr	+0.02 °F/hr	0.05σ	✓ Accurate
10/19/26 23:49:57	10/19 22:49:57	+1h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.97	57.627 °F/hr	57.405 °F/hr [57.1 – 57.71]	57.44 °F/hr	+0.035 °F/hr	0.12σ	✓ Accurate
10/19/26 22:49:57	10/19 18:49:57	+4h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.96	58.58 °F/hr	58.092 °F/hr [57.67 – 58.51]	57.64 °F/hr	-0.522 °F/hr	1.32σ	✓ Accurate
10/19/26 19:49:57	10/19 18:49:57	+1h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.96	58.58 °F/hr	58.591 °F/hr [58.28 – 58.9]	58.36 °F/hr	-0.231 °F/hr	0.79σ	✓ Accurate
10/19/26 18:49:57	10/19 14:49:57	+4h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.95	57.676 °F/hr	58.198 °F/hr [57.78 – 58.62]	58.36 °F/hr	+0.162 °F/hr	0.41σ	✓ Accurate
10/19/26 15:49:57	10/19 14:49:57	+1h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.95	57.676 °F/hr	57.855 °F/hr [57.54 – 58.17]	58.18 °F/hr	+0.325 °F/hr	1.11σ	✓ Accurate
10/19/26 14:49:57	10/19 10:49:57	+4h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.95	56.947 °F/hr	58.28 °F/hr [57.88 – 58.68]	57.67 °F/hr	-0.61 °F/hr	1.54σ	✓ Accurate
10/19/26 11:49:57	10/19 10:49:57	+1h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.95	56.947 °F/hr	57.337 °F/hr [57.04 – 57.64]	57.49 °F/hr	+0.153 °F/hr	0.52σ	✓ Accurate
10/19/26 10:49:57	10/19 06:49:57	+4h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.96	56.111 °F/hr	56.883 °F/hr [56.5 – 57.26]	57 °F/hr	+0.177 °F/hr	0.45σ	✓ Accurate
10/19/26 07:49:57	10/19 06:49:57	+1h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.96	56.111 °F/hr	56.191 °F/hr [55.91 – 56.48]	56.17 °F/hr	-0.021 °F/hr	0.07σ	✓ Accurate
10/19/26 06:49:56	10/19 02:49:56	+4h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.97	56.198 °F/hr	55.672 °F/hr [55.3 – 56.04]	55.99 °F/hr	+0.318 °F/hr	0.8σ	✓ Accurate
10/19/26 03:49:56	10/19 02:49:56	+1h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.97	56.198 °F/hr	55.966 °F/hr [55.69 – 56.24]	56.04 °F/hr	+0.074 °F/hr	0.25σ	✓ Accurate

Target Time	Predicted At	Horizon	Model & R²	Start Value	Predicted (80% Cone)	Actual Reading	Error (Actual − Pred)	Z-Error	Outcome
11/02/26 04:48:32	11/02 03:48:39	+1h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.94	49.099 °F/hr	49.168 °F/hr [48.99 – 49.35]	48.17 °F/hr	-0.998 °F/hr	3.4σ	⚡ Anomaly Logged