| Timestamp | Severity | Type | Value | Baseline | % vs Base | Rate of Change | Z-Value | Z-Rate | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/02/26 12:00:03 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 70 C/hr | 49.22 | +42.2% | 0.038 | 5.03 | - |
55.9%
|
| 11/01/26 22:20:03 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 65 C/hr | 48.53 | +33.9% | 0.027 | 4.69 | - |
52.2%
|
Volume cap: showing the latest 200 anomalies in this view. Narrow the time period to inspect earlier events.
|
| Timestamp | Severity | Type | Value | Baseline | % vs Base | Rate of Change | Z-Value | Z-Rate | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/02/26 12:00:03 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 70 C/hr | 49.22 | +42.2% | 0.038 | 5.03 | - |
55.9%
|
| 11/01/26 22:20:03 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 65 C/hr | 48.53 | +33.9% | 0.027 | 4.69 | - |
52.2%
|
| 11/01/26 08:30:03 | CRITICAL | Extreme Value Deviation | 74 C/hr | 48.45 | +52.7% | 0.043 | 6.77 | - |
75.3%
|
| 11/01/26 01:50:03 | CRITICAL | Extreme Rate Spike | 48 C/hr | 48.32 | -0.7% | 2 | -0.09 | 17.33 |
87.1%
|
| 11/01/26 01:40:04 | CRITICAL | Extreme Rate Spike | 47 C/hr | 48.32 | -2.7% | -1 | -0.37 | -9.92 |
51.7%
|
| 11/01/26 01:30:04 | CRITICAL | Extreme Rate Spike | 48 C/hr | 48.3 | -0.6% | -1 | -0.09 | -12.16 |
61.3%
|
| 11/01/26 01:20:03 | CRITICAL | Extreme Rate Spike | 51 C/hr | 48.29 | +5.6% | 1 | 0.76 | 17.18 |
90.1%
|
| 11/01/26 01:00:03 | CRITICAL | Extreme Rate Spike | 47 C/hr | 48.27 | -2.6% | -1 | -0.36 | -113.89 |
100%
|
| 10/30/26 12:20:03 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 69 C/hr | 48.24 | +43% | 0.035 | 4.93 | - |
54.7%
|
| 10/30/26 11:30:04 | WARNING | Rate Spike | 48 C/hr | 48.22 | -0.5% | -0.05 | -0.05 | -5.37 |
27.2%
|
| 10/30/26 11:20:02 | CRITICAL | Extreme Value Deviation | 78 C/hr | 48.12 | +62.1% | 0.052 | 7.77 | - |
86.3%
|
| 10/29/26 15:30:02 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 67 C/hr | 48.24 | +38.9% | 0.003 | 4.54 | - |
50.5%
|
| 10/29/26 06:40:02 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 72 C/hr | 48.26 | +49.2% | 0.042 | 5.38 | - |
59.7%
|
| 10/28/26 19:50:02 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 77 C/hr | 48.51 | +58.7% | 0.053 | 6.31 | - |
70.1%
|
| 10/27/26 10:00:04 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 78 C/hr | 48.58 | +60.6% | 0.058 | 6.45 | - |
71.7%
|
| 10/27/26 05:30:02 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 69 C/hr | 48.45 | +42.4% | 0.033 | 4.87 | - |
54.1%
|
| 10/27/26 02:20:02 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 71 C/hr | 48.36 | +46.8% | 0.033 | 5.69 | - |
63.2%
|
| 10/26/26 17:20:02 | CRITICAL | Extreme Value Deviation | 76 C/hr | 48.23 | +57.6% | 0.043 | 7.91 | - |
87.9%
|
| 10/26/26 16:50:03 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 70 C/hr | 48.15 | +45.4% | 0.038 | 6.68 | - |
74.2%
|
| 10/26/26 15:20:03 | CRITICAL | Extreme Value Deviation | 71 C/hr | 48.16 | +47.4% | 0.037 | 7.31 | - |
81.2%
|
| 10/25/26 07:20:02 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 74 C/hr | 49.12 | +50.6% | 0.044 | 6.16 | - |
68.5%
|
| 10/21/26 02:00:03 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 91 C/hr | 54.41 | +67.2% | 0.072 | 5.59 | - |
62.1%
|
| 10/12/26 16:55:07 | CRITICAL | Extreme Rate Spike | 60 C/hr | 55.36 | +8.4% | -0.308 | 0.66 | -18.89 |
98.2%
|
| 10/03/26 04:40:02 | CRITICAL | Extreme Value Deviation | 89 C/hr | 48.68 | +82.8% | 0.07 | 7.39 | - |
82.1%
|
| 10/03/26 02:30:04 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 74 C/hr | 48.58 | +52.3% | 0.047 | 4.83 | - |
53.7%
|
| 10/02/26 16:10:03 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 74 C/hr | 47.76 | +55% | 0.045 | 5.75 | - |
63.9%
|
| 10/02/26 13:30:03 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 73 C/hr | 47.55 | +53.5% | 0.045 | 6.24 | - |
69.4%
|
| 10/02/26 11:40:06 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 69 C/hr | 47.39 | +45.6% | 0.035 | 5.8 | - |
64.5%
|
| 10/02/26 07:20:08 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 71 C/hr | 47.38 | +49.9% | 0.038 | 6.55 | - |
72.8%
|
| 10/01/26 02:30:02 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 70 C/hr | 47.45 | +47.5% | 0.02 | 4.91 | - |
54.5%
|
| 09/30/26 02:30:02 | CRITICAL | Extreme Value Deviation | 94 C/hr | 47.66 | +97.2% | 0.079 | 10.37 | - |
100%
|
| 09/29/26 02:30:01 | CRITICAL | Extreme Value Deviation | 84 C/hr | 47.84 | +75.6% | 0.061 | 8.22 | - |
91.3%
|
| 09/28/26 15:00:08 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 71 C/hr | 47.76 | +48.7% | 0.008 | 5.54 | - |
61.5%
|
| 09/28/26 14:50:02 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 66 C/hr | 47.7 | +38.4% | 0.035 | 4.51 | - |
50.1%
|
| 09/28/26 07:20:02 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 67 C/hr | 47.65 | +40.6% | 0.032 | 4.8 | - |
53.3%
|
| 09/27/26 17:40:02 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 67 C/hr | 47.47 | +41.1% | 0.01 | 4.7 | - |
52.2%
|
| 09/27/26 13:20:06 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 68 C/hr | 47.52 | +43.1% | 0.032 | 4.69 | - |
52.1%
|
| 09/26/26 05:40:02 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 70 C/hr | 47.39 | +47.7% | 0.038 | 4.81 | - |
53.4%
|
| 09/26/26 02:30:01 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 78 C/hr | 47.55 | +64% | 0.052 | 5.92 | - |
65.8%
|
| 09/25/26 12:10:02 | CRITICAL | Extreme Value Deviation | 81 C/hr | 47.37 | +71% | 0.057 | 7.06 | - |
78.4%
|
| 09/25/26 10:10:07 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 73 C/hr | 47.26 | +54.5% | 0.042 | 5.69 | - |
63.2%
|
| 09/24/26 14:40:02 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 70 C/hr | 47.23 | +48.2% | 0.043 | 4.77 | - |
53%
|
| 09/24/26 02:40:03 | WARNING | Rate Spike | 48 C/hr | 47.54 | +1% | -0.07 | 0.09 | -6.08 |
30.9%
|
| 09/24/26 02:30:02 | CRITICAL | Extreme Value Deviation | 90 C/hr | 47.4 | +89.9% | 0.066 | 9.11 | - |
100%
|
| 09/24/26 02:00:02 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 69 C/hr | 47.26 | +46% | 0.04 | 4.85 | - |
53.8%
|
| 09/23/26 11:40:02 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 71 C/hr | 47.33 | +50% | 0.043 | 5.08 | - |
56.5%
|
| 09/23/26 03:30:06 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 70 C/hr | 47.45 | +47.5% | 0.038 | 4.61 | - |
51.2%
|
| 09/23/26 02:30:02 | CRITICAL | Extreme Value Deviation | 94 C/hr | 47.3 | +98.7% | 0.079 | 11.39 | - |
100%
|
| 09/22/26 02:00:02 | CRITICAL | Extreme Value Deviation | 83 C/hr | 47.8 | +73.6% | 0.062 | 7.68 | - |
85.3%
|
| 09/21/26 10:30:02 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 72 C/hr | 47.8 | +50.6% | 0.045 | 5.31 | - |
59%
|
| 09/21/26 02:10:08 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 69 C/hr | 47.72 | +44.6% | 0.036 | 4.91 | - |
54.5%
|
| 09/20/26 17:50:02 | CRITICAL | Extreme Value Deviation | 83 C/hr | 47.41 | +75.1% | 0.06 | 9.85 | - |
100%
|
| 09/20/26 10:50:02 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 66 C/hr | 47.21 | +39.8% | 0.032 | 5.8 | - |
64.5%
|
| 09/20/26 06:54:13 | CRITICAL | Extreme Rate Spike | 48 C/hr | 47.15 | +1.8% | -0.286 | 0.26 | -37.22 |
100%
|
| 09/20/26 06:00:02 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 62 C/hr | 47.11 | +31.6% | 0.023 | 4.74 | - |
52.6%
|
| 09/20/26 02:20:03 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 65 C/hr | 47.16 | +37.8% | 0.029 | 4.62 | - |
51.4%
|
| 09/19/26 15:00:03 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 72 C/hr | 47.13 | +52.8% | 0.042 | 6.69 | - |
74.4%
|
| 09/18/26 02:40:04 | WARNING | Rate Spike | 48 C/hr | 47.95 | +0.1% | -0.07 | 0.01 | -6.22 |
31.2%
|
| 09/18/26 02:30:02 | CRITICAL | Extreme Value Deviation | 90 C/hr | 47.8 | +88.3% | 0.071 | 9.59 | - |
100%
|
| 09/17/26 19:00:03 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 67 C/hr | 47.66 | +40.6% | 0.037 | 4.54 | - |
50.4%
|
| 09/17/26 12:50:02 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 67 C/hr | 47.71 | +40.4% | 0.007 | 4.63 | - |
51.4%
|
| 09/16/26 18:50:02 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 67 C/hr | 47.46 | +41.2% | 0.034 | 4.61 | - |
51.3%
|
| 09/16/26 02:30:02 | CRITICAL | Extreme Value Deviation | 87 C/hr | 47.54 | +83% | 0.072 | 8.51 | - |
94.6%
|
| 09/15/26 06:00:03 | CRITICAL | Extreme Value Deviation | 76 C/hr | 47.31 | +60.6% | 0.048 | 6.86 | - |
76.3%
|
| 09/14/26 15:40:02 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 71 C/hr | 47.4 | +49.8% | 0.04 | 5.75 | - |
63.9%
|
| 09/14/26 10:40:03 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 72 C/hr | 47.63 | +51.2% | 0.04 | 5.18 | - |
57.6%
|
| 09/14/26 02:40:02 | WARNING | Rate Spike | 47 C/hr | 47.73 | -1.5% | -0.073 | -0.15 | -7.01 |
35.9%
|
| 09/14/26 02:30:02 | CRITICAL | Extreme Value Deviation | 91 C/hr | 47.58 | +91.3% | 0.077 | 10.68 | - |
100%
|
| 09/12/26 10:00:03 | CRITICAL | Extreme Value Deviation | 84 C/hr | 47.83 | +75.6% | 0.065 | 8.73 | - |
97%
|
| 09/12/26 09:00:03 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 69 C/hr | 47.79 | +44.4% | 0.03 | 5.35 | - |
59.4%
|
| 09/11/26 04:10:04 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 70 C/hr | 47.84 | +46.3% | 0.037 | 5.36 | - |
59.6%
|
| 09/10/26 17:30:02 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 74 C/hr | 47.69 | +55.2% | 0.045 | 6.14 | - |
68.2%
|
| 09/10/26 16:10:02 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 70 C/hr | 47.64 | +46.9% | 0.038 | 5.41 | - |
60.1%
|
| 09/10/26 12:00:03 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 72 C/hr | 47.66 | +51.1% | 0.042 | 5.97 | - |
66.3%
|
| 09/10/26 02:00:03 | CRITICAL | Extreme Value Deviation | 73 C/hr | 47.46 | +53.8% | 0.042 | 7.03 | - |
78.1%
|
| 09/09/26 02:10:28 | WARNING | Rate Spike | 48 C/hr | 47.81 | +0.4% | -0.058 | 0.04 | -5.91 |
29.8%
|
| 09/09/26 02:00:02 | CRITICAL | Extreme Value Deviation | 84 C/hr | 47.68 | +76.2% | 0.065 | 9.56 | - |
100%
|
| 09/08/26 22:00:03 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 67 C/hr | 47.55 | +40.9% | 0.033 | 5.54 | - |
61.6%
|
| 09/08/26 12:30:07 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 67 C/hr | 47.5 | +41.1% | 0.036 | 5.7 | - |
63.3%
|
| 09/07/26 19:30:02 | WARNING | Rate Spike | 49 C/hr | 47.67 | +2.8% | -0.034 | 0.35 | -3.87 |
30.6%
|
| 09/07/26 19:20:19 | CRITICAL | Extreme Value Deviation | 69 C/hr | 47.6 | +45% | 0.039 | 6.05 | - |
100%
|
| 09/07/26 18:40:02 | WARNING | Rate Spike | 47 C/hr | 47.65 | -1.4% | -0.031 | -0.18 | -3.58 |
27.1%
|
| 09/07/26 18:30:16 | CRITICAL | Extreme Value Deviation | 65 C/hr | 47.59 | +36.6% | 0.033 | 5.03 | - |
83.8%
|
| 09/07/26 17:20:32 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 60 C/hr | 47.56 | +26.1% | 0.021 | 3.66 | - |
61%
|
| 09/07/26 15:20:02 | CRITICAL | Extreme Value Deviation | 73 C/hr | 47.48 | +53.8% | 0.046 | 8.28 | - |
100%
|
| 09/07/26 13:00:03 | CRITICAL | Extreme Value Deviation | 70 C/hr | 47.45 | +47.5% | 0.038 | 7.26 | - |
100%
|
| 09/06/26 15:50:02 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 65 C/hr | 47.73 | +36.2% | 0.03 | 4.1 | - |
68.4%
|
| 09/05/26 18:50:20 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 64 C/hr | 47.66 | +34.3% | 0.028 | 3.67 | - |
61.2%
|
| 09/05/26 11:40:02 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 64 C/hr | 47.75 | +34% | 0.032 | 3.52 | - |
58.6%
|
| 09/05/26 11:00:14 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 64 C/hr | 47.72 | +34.1% | 0.025 | 3.61 | - |
60.1%
|
| 09/05/26 09:00:02 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 67 C/hr | 47.66 | +40.6% | 0.037 | 4.42 | - |
73.7%
|
| 09/05/26 08:10:02 | CRITICAL | Extreme Value Deviation | 72 C/hr | 47.58 | +51.3% | 0.045 | 5.9 | - |
98.3%
|
| 09/05/26 07:50:06 | WARNING | Rate Spike | 47 C/hr | 47.58 | -1.2% | -0.037 | -0.14 | -3.79 |
28.3%
|
| 09/05/26 07:40:06 | CRITICAL | Extreme Value Deviation | 69 C/hr | 47.51 | +45.2% | 0.04 | 5.44 | - |
90.6%
|
| 09/05/26 04:10:02 | WARNING | Rate Spike | 47 C/hr | 47.54 | -1.1% | -0.037 | -0.14 | -4.11 |
30.5%
|
| 09/05/26 04:00:10 | CRITICAL | Extreme Value Deviation | 69 C/hr | 47.48 | +45.3% | 0.036 | 5.77 | - |
96.2%
|
| 09/05/26 02:40:02 | CRITICAL | Extreme Rate Spike | 47 C/hr | 47.52 | -1.1% | -0.055 | -0.14 | -6.7 |
49%
|
| 09/05/26 02:30:01 | CRITICAL | Value & Rate Spike | 80 C/hr | 47.41 | +68.7% | 0.059 | 10.11 | 7.87 |
100%
|
| 09/04/26 13:30:03 | CRITICAL | Extreme Value Deviation | 69 C/hr | 47.91 | +44% | 0.037 | 5.44 | - |
90.6%
|
| 09/03/26 21:50:02 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 61 C/hr | 48.35 | +26.2% | 0.027 | 3.12 | - |
52.1%
|
| 09/03/26 17:40:03 | WARNING | Rate Spike | 47 C/hr | 48.59 | -3.3% | -0.047 | -0.35 | -4.5 |
35%
|
| 09/03/26 17:30:05 | CRITICAL | Extreme Value Deviation | 75 C/hr | 48.5 | +54.6% | 0.045 | 6.24 | - |
100%
|
| 09/03/26 16:10:04 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 64 C/hr | 48.45 | +32.1% | 0.028 | 3.74 | - |
62.4%
|
| 09/03/26 14:00:02 | CRITICAL | Extreme Value Deviation | 74 C/hr | 48.41 | +52.9% | 0.045 | 6.51 | - |
100%
|
| 09/02/26 15:20:03 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 65 C/hr | 48.75 | +33.3% | 0.027 | 3.56 | - |
59.3%
|
| 09/02/26 13:10:03 | CRITICAL | Extreme Value Deviation | 86 C/hr | 48.61 | +76.9% | 0.062 | 9.26 | - |
100%
|
| 09/02/26 04:50:03 | CRITICAL | Extreme Value Deviation | 68 C/hr | 48.54 | +40.1% | 0.032 | 4.85 | - |
80.8%
|
| 09/01/26 22:30:02 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 63 C/hr | 48.57 | +29.7% | 0.025 | 3.15 | - |
52.5%
|
| 09/01/26 18:30:03 | CRITICAL | Extreme Value Deviation | 77 C/hr | 48.45 | +58.9% | 0.048 | 6.39 | - |
100%
|
| 09/01/26 15:40:02 | CRITICAL | Extreme Value Deviation | 69 C/hr | 48.49 | +42.3% | 0.035 | 4.66 | - |
77.7%
|
| 09/01/26 10:50:03 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 62 C/hr | 48.41 | +28.1% | 0.02 | 3.16 | - |
52.7%
|
| 09/01/26 09:30:02 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 67 C/hr | 48.43 | +38.3% | 0.033 | 4.37 | - |
72.9%
|
| 09/01/26 02:30:03 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 64 C/hr | 48.55 | +31.8% | 0.028 | 3.4 | - |
56.7%
|
| 08/31/26 19:20:03 | CRITICAL | Extreme Value Deviation | 70 C/hr | 48.43 | +44.5% | 0.037 | 4.9 | - |
81.7%
|
| 08/31/26 16:30:04 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 67 C/hr | 48.34 | +38.6% | 0.037 | 4.43 | - |
73.8%
|
| 08/31/26 13:30:03 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 61 C/hr | 48.24 | +26.5% | 0.02 | 3.14 | - |
52.3%
|
| 08/31/26 07:30:03 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 67 C/hr | 48.47 | +38.2% | 0.032 | 4.42 | - |
73.6%
|
| 08/31/26 02:40:02 | CRITICAL | Extreme Rate Spike | 47 C/hr | 48.59 | -3.3% | -0.07 | -0.38 | -7.6 |
57.4%
|
| 08/31/26 02:30:01 | CRITICAL | Value & Rate Spike | 89 C/hr | 48.49 | +83.6% | 0.067 | 11.38 | 7.96 |
100%
|
| 08/30/26 17:30:04 | CRITICAL | Extreme Value Deviation | 68 C/hr | 48.73 | +39.6% | 0.038 | 4.6 | - |
76.6%
|
| 08/30/26 06:50:02 | CRITICAL | Extreme Value Deviation | 74 C/hr | 48.54 | +52.5% | 0.042 | 6.54 | - |
100%
|
| 08/30/26 06:10:02 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 63 C/hr | 48.48 | +30% | 0.027 | 3.82 | - |
63.7%
|
| 08/28/26 18:40:04 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 71 C/hr | 49.02 | +44.8% | 0.043 | 4.13 | - |
68.9%
|
| 08/28/26 18:00:02 | CRITICAL | Extreme Value Deviation | 81 C/hr | 48.91 | +65.6% | 0.055 | 6.43 | - |
100%
|
| 08/28/26 15:50:02 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 67 C/hr | 48.85 | +37.1% | 0.01 | 3.72 | - |
62%
|
| 08/28/26 11:30:02 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 66 C/hr | 48.73 | +35.4% | 0.032 | 3.63 | - |
60.5%
|
| 08/28/26 02:20:03 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 66 C/hr | 48.89 | +35% | 0.032 | 3.16 | - |
52.7%
|
| 08/27/26 22:30:02 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 65 C/hr | 48.82 | +33.2% | 0.027 | 3.05 | - |
50.8%
|
| 08/27/26 19:20:02 | WARNING | Rate Spike | 48 C/hr | 48.81 | -1.7% | -0.045 | -0.15 | -3.72 |
27.8%
|
| 08/27/26 19:10:02 | CRITICAL | Extreme Value Deviation | 75 C/hr | 48.71 | +54% | 0.045 | 5.09 | - |
84.8%
|
| 08/27/26 18:20:02 | CRITICAL | Extreme Value Deviation | 75 C/hr | 48.58 | +54.4% | 0.01 | 5.37 | - |
89.5%
|
| 08/27/26 18:10:02 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 69 C/hr | 48.51 | +42.2% | 0.037 | 4.29 | - |
71.5%
|
| 08/27/26 14:40:03 | CRITICAL | Extreme Value Deviation | 70 C/hr | 48.43 | +44.5% | 0.035 | 4.67 | - |
77.9%
|
| 08/27/26 11:50:02 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 64 C/hr | 48.41 | +32.2% | 0.03 | 3.35 | - |
55.8%
|
| 08/27/26 10:30:02 | WARNING | Rate Spike | 50 C/hr | 48.41 | +3.3% | -0.038 | 0.34 | -3.55 |
28.2%
|
| 08/27/26 10:20:03 | CRITICAL | Extreme Value Deviation | 73 C/hr | 48.32 | +51.1% | 0.04 | 5.56 | - |
92.7%
|
| 08/27/26 06:50:02 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 67 C/hr | 48.43 | +38.3% | 0.03 | 3.75 | - |
62.5%
|
| 08/27/26 03:40:02 | CRITICAL | Extreme Value Deviation | 80 C/hr | 48.35 | +65.4% | 0.053 | 6.82 | - |
100%
|
| 08/26/26 22:10:02 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 66 C/hr | 48.39 | +36.4% | 0.032 | 3.78 | - |
63.1%
|
| 08/26/26 11:10:03 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 64 C/hr | 48.49 | +32% | 0.027 | 3.18 | - |
53%
|
| 08/26/26 08:20:03 | WARNING | Rate Spike | 48 C/hr | 48.53 | -1.1% | -0.043 | -0.11 | -3.82 |
28.2%
|
| 08/26/26 08:10:04 | CRITICAL | Extreme Value Deviation | 74 C/hr | 48.44 | +52.8% | 0.043 | 5.49 | - |
91.6%
|
| 08/26/26 02:30:02 | CRITICAL | Extreme Value Deviation | 91 C/hr | 48.44 | +87.9% | 0.072 | 9.06 | - |
100%
|
| 08/25/26 19:10:03 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 63 C/hr | 48.26 | +30.5% | 0.027 | 3.2 | - |
53.4%
|
| 08/25/26 11:10:03 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 67 C/hr | 48.35 | +38.6% | 0.033 | 4.07 | - |
67.9%
|
| 08/25/26 05:40:02 | CRITICAL | Extreme Rate Spike | 49 C/hr | 48.44 | +1.2% | -0.07 | 0.12 | -6.54 |
47.7%
|
| 08/25/26 05:30:03 | CRITICAL | Value & Rate Spike | 91 C/hr | 48.28 | +88.5% | 0.072 | 10.27 | 7.23 |
100%
|
| 08/24/26 22:10:02 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 64 C/hr | 48.51 | +31.9% | 0.02 | 3.15 | - |
52.5%
|
| 08/24/26 18:00:02 | WARNING | Rate Spike | 48 C/hr | 48.45 | -0.9% | -0.042 | -0.09 | -3.72 |
27.4%
|
| 08/24/26 17:50:04 | CRITICAL | Extreme Value Deviation | 73 C/hr | 48.36 | +50.9% | 0.042 | 5.2 | - |
86.7%
|
| 08/24/26 02:30:02 | CRITICAL | Value & Rate Spike | 89 C/hr | 48.45 | +83.7% | 0.068 | 9.52 | 7.06 |
100%
|
| 08/23/26 10:50:03 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 66 C/hr | 48.58 | +35.8% | 0.028 | 3.94 | - |
65.7%
|
| 08/23/26 06:50:03 | WARNING | Rate Spike | 47 C/hr | 48.64 | -3.4% | -0.045 | -0.37 | -4.55 |
35.6%
|
| 08/23/26 06:40:03 | CRITICAL | Extreme Value Deviation | 74 C/hr | 48.56 | +52.4% | 0.04 | 6.14 | - |
100%
|
| 08/23/26 02:50:02 | CRITICAL | Extreme Value Deviation | 71 C/hr | 48.56 | +46.2% | 0.033 | 5.54 | - |
92.3%
|
| 08/23/26 01:30:04 | WARNING | Rate Spike | 57 C/hr | 48.51 | +17.5% | -0.045 | 2.12 | -5.07 |
53.9%
|
| 08/23/26 01:20:02 | CRITICAL | Extreme Value Deviation | 84 C/hr | 48.39 | +73.6% | 0.057 | 10.37 | - |
100%
|
| 08/22/26 22:40:03 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 59 C/hr | 48.31 | +22.1% | 0.02 | 3.2 | - |
53.3%
|
| 08/22/26 21:50:02 | CRITICAL | Extreme Value Deviation | 65 C/hr | 48.26 | +34.7% | 0.028 | 5.22 | - |
87%
|
| 08/22/26 16:00:02 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 60 C/hr | 48.38 | +24% | 0.02 | 3.55 | - |
59.2%
|
| 08/22/26 09:10:02 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 62 C/hr | 48.73 | +27.2% | 0.028 | 3.24 | - |
54%
|
| 08/22/26 08:30:02 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 64 C/hr | 48.76 | +31.3% | 0.025 | 3.65 | - |
60.8%
|
| 08/22/26 02:10:03 | WARNING | Rate Spike | 50 C/hr | 48.86 | +2.3% | -0.035 | 0.26 | -3.52 |
27.3%
|
| 08/22/26 02:00:02 | CRITICAL | Extreme Value Deviation | 71 C/hr | 48.78 | +45.5% | 0.037 | 5.39 | - |
89.8%
|
| 08/21/26 12:10:03 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 64 C/hr | 49.15 | +30.2% | 0.028 | 3.25 | - |
54.1%
|
| 08/21/26 04:30:03 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 64 C/hr | 49.18 | +30.1% | 0.027 | 3.19 | - |
53.1%
|
| 08/20/26 19:20:02 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 66 C/hr | 49.15 | +34.3% | 0.028 | 3.7 | - |
61.6%
|
| 08/20/26 13:40:03 | CRITICAL | Extreme Value Deviation | 73 C/hr | 49.21 | +48.4% | 0.023 | 5.05 | - |
84.2%
|
| 08/20/26 10:10:02 | CRITICAL | Extreme Value Deviation | 72 C/hr | 49.01 | +46.9% | 0.043 | 5.13 | - |
85.5%
|
| 08/20/26 07:50:02 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 69 C/hr | 49.09 | +40.6% | 0.035 | 4.42 | - |
73.7%
|
| 08/20/26 06:40:02 | CRITICAL | Extreme Value Deviation | 70 C/hr | 48.98 | +42.9% | 0.038 | 4.85 | - |
80.9%
|
| 08/20/26 02:00:03 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 66 C/hr | 48.94 | +34.8% | 0.032 | 3.94 | - |
65.7%
|
| 08/19/26 21:20:02 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 68 C/hr | 49.03 | +38.7% | 0.033 | 4.03 | - |
67.1%
|
| 08/19/26 17:50:02 | CRITICAL | Extreme Value Deviation | 70 C/hr | 48.92 | +43.1% | -0.002 | 4.61 | - |
76.8%
|
| 08/19/26 17:40:02 | CRITICAL | Extreme Value Deviation | 71 C/hr | 48.84 | +45.4% | 0.04 | 5.05 | - |
84.1%
|
| 08/19/26 11:10:03 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 64 C/hr | 48.89 | +30.9% | 0.028 | 3.01 | - |
50.1%
|
| 08/19/26 03:30:03 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 64 C/hr | 48.71 | +31.4% | 0.028 | 3.12 | - |
51.9%
|
| 08/18/26 12:50:02 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 67 C/hr | 48.65 | +37.7% | 0.037 | 3.86 | - |
64.3%
|
| 08/18/26 12:00:03 | CRITICAL | Extreme Value Deviation | 70 C/hr | 48.57 | +44.1% | 0.038 | 4.66 | - |
77.7%
|
| 08/18/26 07:50:03 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 67 C/hr | 48.46 | +38.3% | 0.035 | 4.1 | - |
68.3%
|
| 08/18/26 06:10:03 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 63 C/hr | 48.47 | +30% | 0.03 | 3.12 | - |
52%
|
| 08/18/26 01:30:03 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 67 C/hr | 48.53 | +38.1% | 0.032 | 3.79 | - |
63.1%
|
| 08/17/26 20:40:03 | CRITICAL | Extreme Rate Spike | 49 C/hr | 48.43 | +1.2% | -0.058 | 0.12 | -5.61 |
41%
|
| 08/17/26 20:30:01 | CRITICAL | Extreme Value Deviation | 84 C/hr | 48.3 | +73.9% | 0.04 | 8.18 | - |
100%
|
| 08/17/26 15:30:03 | CRITICAL | Value & Rate Spike | 90 C/hr | 48.47 | +85.7% | 0.07 | 10.18 | 7.3 |
100%
|
| 08/16/26 04:50:03 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 74 C/hr | 52.48 | +41% | 0.045 | 3.24 | - |
54.1%
|
| 08/16/26 02:10:03 | WARNING | Rate Spike | 48 C/hr | 52.41 | -8.4% | -0.052 | -0.65 | -3.84 |
32.8%
|
| 08/16/26 02:00:02 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 79 C/hr | 52.3 | +51.1% | 0.048 | 4.05 | - |
67.5%
|
| 08/15/26 13:20:02 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 73 C/hr | 51.76 | +41% | 0.022 | 3.04 | - |
50.6%
|
| 08/15/26 02:30:02 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 74 C/hr | 49.25 | +50.2% | 0.025 | 3.68 | - |
61.4%
|
| 08/14/26 16:50:03 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 69 C/hr | 47.6 | +44.9% | 0.035 | 3.57 | - |
59.5%
|
| 08/14/26 15:30:03 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 67 C/hr | 47.34 | +41.5% | 0.017 | 3.4 | - |
56.7%
|
| 08/14/26 15:00:03 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 65 C/hr | 47.18 | +37.8% | 0 | 3.17 | - |
52.8%
|
| 08/14/26 14:50:01 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 65 C/hr | 47.11 | +38% | 0.032 | 3.23 | - |
53.9%
|
| 08/14/26 14:10:03 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 65 C/hr | 46.99 | +38.3% | 0.03 | 3.34 | - |
55.7%
|
| 08/14/26 13:20:03 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 66 C/hr | 46.79 | +41.1% | 0.03 | 3.73 | - |
62.1%
|
| 08/14/26 03:50:03 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 60 C/hr | 45.39 | +32.2% | 0.013 | 3.19 | - |
53.1%
|
| 08/13/26 23:10:02 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 64 C/hr | 45.02 | +42.1% | 0.035 | 4.44 | - |
73.9%
|
| 08/13/26 19:50:02 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 59 C/hr | 44.99 | +31.1% | 0.007 | 3.33 | - |
55.5%
|
| 08/13/26 18:00:03 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 62 C/hr | 44.89 | +38.1% | 0.032 | 4.15 | - |
69.1%
|
🎬 Walk-Forward Forecast Cone Replay
Quick Compare:
|
Speed:
Trail:
⏱ Playhead Frame
—
📍 Fitted Value & Velocity
—
📐 Active Model & Fit
—
🔮 +1h Cone Forecast vs Actual
—
🔭 +4h Cone Forecast vs Actual
—
🎯 Running Replay Scorecard
—
🔮 Next Short Forecast (+1h)
51.688 C/hr
(-0.52)
Target: 04:00 · 80% Cone: [44.08 – 59.29]
🔭 Next Long Forecast (+4h)
50.883 C/hr
(-1.32)
Target: 07:00 · 80% Cone: [40.67 – 61.1]
🎯 Out-of-Sample Accuracy
100%
(61 checked)
MAE: 4.726 C/hr · RMSE: 6.063 C/hr · Fit R²=0.04
🚨 Historical Failures & Drift
0 diverged
1 minor drift · Max Z-Error: 2σ
|
| Target Time | Predicted At | Horizon | Model & R² | Start Value | Predicted (80% Cone) | Actual Reading | Error (Actual − Pred) | Z-Error | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/03/26 07:00:04 (in 3.9h) | 11/03 03:03:23 | +4h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.09 | 52.205 C/hr | 50.883 C/hr [40.67 – 61.1] | ⏳ Waiting | - | - | ⏳ Pending |
| 11/03/26 04:00:04 (in 52m) | 11/03 03:03:23 | +1h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.09 | 52.205 C/hr | 51.688 C/hr [44.08 – 59.29] | ⏳ Waiting | - | - | ⏳ Pending |
| 11/02/26 07:40:02 | 11/02 03:48:39 | +4h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.03 | 49.741 C/hr | 47.85 C/hr [40.05 – 55.65] | 46 C/hr | -1.85 C/hr | 0.3σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 11/02/26 04:40:02 | 11/02 03:48:39 | +1h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.03 | 49.741 C/hr | 49.002 C/hr [43.19 – 54.81] | 55 C/hr | +5.998 C/hr | 1.32σ | ✓ Accurate |
|
| Target Time | Predicted At | Horizon | Model & R² | Start Value | Predicted (80% Cone) | Actual Reading | Error (Actual − Pred) | Z-Error | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/03/26 07:00:04 (in 3.9h) | 11/03 03:03:23 | +4h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.09 | 52.205 C/hr | 50.883 C/hr [40.67 – 61.1] | ⏳ Waiting | - | - | ⏳ Pending |
| 11/03/26 04:00:04 (in 52m) | 11/03 03:03:23 | +1h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.09 | 52.205 C/hr | 51.688 C/hr [44.08 – 59.29] | ⏳ Waiting | - | - | ⏳ Pending |
| 11/02/26 07:40:02 | 11/02 03:48:39 | +4h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.03 | 49.741 C/hr | 47.85 C/hr [40.05 – 55.65] | 46 C/hr | -1.85 C/hr | 0.3σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 11/02/26 04:40:02 | 11/02 03:48:39 | +1h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.03 | 49.741 C/hr | 49.002 C/hr [43.19 – 54.81] | 55 C/hr | +5.998 C/hr | 1.32σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/25/26 17:50:02 | 10/25 13:54:50 | +4h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.04 | 48.427 C/hr | 47.927 C/hr [41.86 – 54] | No reading | - | - | No Reading |
| 10/25/26 14:50:02 | 10/25 13:54:50 | +1h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.04 | 48.427 C/hr | 48.232 C/hr [43.71 – 52.75] | No reading | - | - | No Reading |
| 10/23/26 19:20:03 | 10/23 15:24:07 | +4h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.07 | 56.237 C/hr | 60.396 C/hr [47.91 – 72.89] | 50 C/hr | -10.396 C/hr | 1.06σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/23/26 16:20:03 | 10/23 15:24:07 | +1h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.07 | 56.237 C/hr | 57.862 C/hr [48.57 – 67.16] | 53 C/hr | -4.862 C/hr | 0.67σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/23/26 00:40:02 | 10/22 20:41:31 | +4h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.03 | 48.451 C/hr | 45.593 C/hr [32.65 – 58.54] | 66 C/hr | +20.407 C/hr | 2σ | ~ Minor Drift |
| 10/22/26 21:40:02 | 10/22 20:41:31 | +1h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.03 | 48.451 C/hr | 47.334 C/hr [37.7 – 56.97] | 51 C/hr | +3.666 C/hr | 0.49σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/22/26 20:40:02 | 10/22 19:40:02 | +1h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.04 | 49.202 C/hr | 47.594 C/hr [38.16 – 57.03] | 48 C/hr | +0.406 C/hr | 0.05σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/22/26 20:40:02 | 10/22 16:40:02 | +4h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.04 | 58.646 C/hr | 56.864 C/hr [43.99 – 69.74] | 48 C/hr | -8.864 C/hr | 0.88σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/22/26 19:40:03 | 10/22 15:40:03 | +4h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.04 | 57.48 C/hr | 59.41 C/hr [46.77 – 72.05] | 46 C/hr | -13.41 C/hr | 1.35σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/22/26 19:40:02 | 10/22 18:40:02 | +1h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.02 | 53.107 C/hr | 51.223 C/hr [41.58 – 60.87] | 46 C/hr | -5.223 C/hr | 0.69σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/22/26 18:40:03 | 10/22 14:40:03 | +4h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.03 | 55.123 C/hr | 56.862 C/hr [44.3 – 69.42] | 45 C/hr | -11.862 C/hr | 1.2σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/22/26 18:40:02 | 10/22 17:40:02 | +1h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.03 | 56.259 C/hr | 55.273 C/hr [45.66 – 64.89] | 45 C/hr | -10.273 C/hr | 1.36σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/22/26 17:40:02 | 10/22 13:40:02 | +4h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.03 | 52.576 C/hr | 52.476 C/hr [40.66 – 64.29] | 59 C/hr | +6.524 C/hr | 0.7σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/22/26 17:40:02 | 10/22 16:40:02 | +1h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.04 | 58.646 C/hr | 57.95 C/hr [48.36 – 67.54] | 59 C/hr | +1.05 C/hr | 0.14σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/22/26 16:40:03 | 10/22 15:40:03 | +1h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.04 | 57.48 C/hr | 58.234 C/hr [48.82 – 67.65] | 51 C/hr | -7.234 C/hr | 0.98σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/22/26 16:40:03 | 10/22 12:40:03 | +4h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.03 | 51.768 C/hr | 51.632 C/hr [39.07 – 64.2] | 51 C/hr | -0.632 C/hr | 0.06σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/22/26 15:40:03 | 10/22 14:40:03 | +1h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.03 | 55.123 C/hr | 55.802 C/hr [46.45 – 65.15] | 56 C/hr | +0.198 C/hr | 0.03σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/22/26 15:40:02 | 10/22 11:40:02 | +4h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.03 | 51.706 C/hr | 48.751 C/hr [36.31 – 61.2] | 56 C/hr | +7.249 C/hr | 0.74σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/22/26 14:40:02 | 10/22 13:40:02 | +1h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.03 | 52.576 C/hr | 52.537 C/hr [43.74 – 61.33] | 55 C/hr | +2.463 C/hr | 0.36σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/22/26 14:40:02 | 10/22 10:40:02 | +4h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.03 | 52.631 C/hr | 52.755 C/hr [40.31 – 65.2] | 55 C/hr | +2.245 C/hr | 0.23σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/22/26 13:40:03 | 10/22 09:40:03 | +4h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.03 | 52.769 C/hr | 52.107 C/hr [39.69 – 64.53] | 48 C/hr | -4.107 C/hr | 0.42σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/22/26 13:40:03 | 10/22 12:40:03 | +1h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.03 | 51.768 C/hr | 51.715 C/hr [42.36 – 61.07] | 48 C/hr | -3.715 C/hr | 0.51σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/22/26 12:40:03 | 10/22 08:40:03 | +4h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.03 | 52.721 C/hr | 50.832 C/hr [38.48 – 63.19] | 53 C/hr | +2.168 C/hr | 0.22σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/22/26 12:40:02 | 10/22 11:40:02 | +1h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.03 | 51.706 C/hr | 50.551 C/hr [41.29 – 59.81] | 53 C/hr | +2.449 C/hr | 0.34σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/22/26 11:40:03 | 10/22 07:40:03 | +4h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.03 | 53.67 C/hr | 51.652 C/hr [39.29 – 64.02] | 47 C/hr | -4.652 C/hr | 0.48σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/22/26 11:40:02 | 10/22 10:40:02 | +1h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.03 | 52.631 C/hr | 52.68 C/hr [43.42 – 61.94] | 47 C/hr | -5.68 C/hr | 0.78σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/22/26 10:40:03 | 10/22 06:40:03 | +4h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.04 | 55.737 C/hr | 55.862 C/hr [43.5 – 68.22] | 50 C/hr | -5.862 C/hr | 0.6σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/22/26 10:40:03 | 10/22 09:40:03 | +1h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.03 | 52.769 C/hr | 52.511 C/hr [43.27 – 61.76] | 50 C/hr | -2.511 C/hr | 0.35σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/22/26 09:40:05 | 10/22 05:40:05 | +4h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.04 | 56.316 C/hr | 57.715 C/hr [45.29 – 70.14] | 57 C/hr | -0.715 C/hr | 0.07σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/22/26 09:40:03 | 10/22 08:40:03 | +1h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.03 | 52.721 C/hr | 51.983 C/hr [42.79 – 61.18] | 57 C/hr | +5.017 C/hr | 0.7σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/22/26 08:40:03 | 10/22 07:40:03 | +1h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.03 | 53.67 C/hr | 52.881 C/hr [43.68 – 62.08] | 56 C/hr | +3.119 C/hr | 0.43σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/22/26 08:40:03 | 10/22 04:40:03 | +4h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.04 | 55.797 C/hr | 56.95 C/hr [44.47 – 69.43] | 56 C/hr | -0.95 C/hr | 0.1σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/22/26 07:40:03 | 10/22 06:40:03 | +1h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.04 | 55.737 C/hr | 55.786 C/hr [46.59 – 64.99] | 55 C/hr | -0.786 C/hr | 0.11σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/22/26 07:40:02 | 10/22 03:40:02 | +4h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.04 | 53.691 C/hr | 52.521 C/hr [40.02 – 65.03] | 55 C/hr | +2.479 C/hr | 0.25σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/22/26 06:40:05 | 10/22 05:40:05 | +1h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.04 | 56.316 C/hr | 56.863 C/hr [47.61 – 66.11] | 53 C/hr | -3.863 C/hr | 0.53σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/22/26 06:40:03 | 10/22 02:40:03 | +4h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.04 | 54.51 C/hr | 56.211 C/hr [43.69 – 68.73] | 53 C/hr | -3.211 C/hr | 0.33σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/22/26 05:40:03 | 10/22 04:40:03 | +1h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.04 | 55.797 C/hr | 56.248 C/hr [46.96 – 65.53] | 54 C/hr | -2.248 C/hr | 0.31σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/22/26 05:40:02 | 10/22 01:40:02 | +4h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.04 | 54.438 C/hr | 56.757 C/hr [44.38 – 69.13] | 54 C/hr | -2.757 C/hr | 0.28σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/22/26 04:40:03 | 10/22 00:40:03 | +4h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.04 | 51.528 C/hr | 50.486 C/hr [38.14 – 62.83] | 56 C/hr | +5.514 C/hr | 0.57σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/22/26 04:40:02 | 10/22 03:40:02 | +1h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.04 | 53.691 C/hr | 53.234 C/hr [43.93 – 62.54] | 56 C/hr | +2.766 C/hr | 0.38σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/22/26 03:40:03 | 10/21 23:40:03 | +4h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.04 | 51.516 C/hr | 50.149 C/hr [37.75 – 62.55] | 47 C/hr | -3.149 C/hr | 0.32σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/22/26 03:40:03 | 10/22 02:40:03 | +1h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.04 | 54.51 C/hr | 55.175 C/hr [45.86 – 64.49] | 47 C/hr | -8.175 C/hr | 1.12σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/22/26 02:40:02 | 10/21 22:40:02 | +4h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.04 | 51.864 C/hr | 51.081 C/hr [38.68 – 63.48] | 48 C/hr | -3.081 C/hr | 0.32σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/22/26 02:40:02 | 10/22 01:40:02 | +1h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.04 | 54.438 C/hr | 55.344 C/hr [46.13 – 64.56] | 48 C/hr | -7.344 C/hr | 1.02σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/22/26 01:40:03 | 10/22 00:40:03 | +1h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.04 | 51.528 C/hr | 51.121 C/hr [41.93 – 60.31] | 51 C/hr | -0.121 C/hr | 0.02σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/22/26 01:40:02 | 10/21 21:40:02 | +4h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.05 | 51.681 C/hr | 47.964 C/hr [35.57 – 60.36] | 51 C/hr | +3.036 C/hr | 0.31σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/22/26 00:40:03 | 10/21 23:40:03 | +1h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.04 | 51.516 C/hr | 50.982 C/hr [41.75 – 60.21] | 55 C/hr | +4.018 C/hr | 0.56σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/22/26 00:40:02 | 10/21 20:40:02 | +4h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.05 | 53.874 C/hr | 51.873 C/hr [39.44 – 64.31] | 55 C/hr | +3.127 C/hr | 0.32σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/21/26 23:40:02 | 10/21 22:40:02 | +1h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.04 | 51.864 C/hr | 51.558 C/hr [42.33 – 60.79] | 53 C/hr | +1.442 C/hr | 0.2σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/21/26 22:40:02 | 10/21 21:40:02 | +1h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.05 | 51.681 C/hr | 50.229 C/hr [41 – 59.45] | 49 C/hr | -1.229 C/hr | 0.17σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/21/26 21:40:02 | 10/21 20:40:02 | +1h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.05 | 53.874 C/hr | 53.092 C/hr [43.84 – 62.35] | 49 C/hr | -4.092 C/hr | 0.56σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/21/26 20:40:02 | 10/21 16:40:02 | +4h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.05 | 54.55 C/hr | 55.412 C/hr [42.95 – 67.88] | 47 C/hr | -8.412 C/hr | 0.86σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/21/26 17:40:02 | 10/21 16:40:02 | +1h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.05 | 54.55 C/hr | 54.887 C/hr [45.61 – 64.17] | 58 C/hr | +3.113 C/hr | 0.43σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/21/26 16:40:02 | 10/21 12:40:02 | +4h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.06 | 50.628 C/hr | 48.239 C/hr [35.58 – 60.9] | 51 C/hr | +2.761 C/hr | 0.28σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/21/26 13:40:02 | 10/21 12:40:02 | +1h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.06 | 50.628 C/hr | 49.694 C/hr [40.27 – 59.12] | 48 C/hr | -1.694 C/hr | 0.23σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/21/26 12:40:02 | 10/21 08:40:02 | +4h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.05 | 51.204 C/hr | 49.977 C/hr [37.03 – 62.92] | 47 C/hr | -2.977 C/hr | 0.29σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/21/26 09:40:02 | 10/21 08:40:02 | +1h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.05 | 51.204 C/hr | 50.724 C/hr [41.09 – 60.36] | 55 C/hr | +4.276 C/hr | 0.57σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/21/26 05:40:02 | 10/21 01:49:34 | +4h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.06 | 54.774 C/hr | 55.134 C/hr [42.76 – 67.51] | 50 C/hr | -5.134 C/hr | 0.53σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/21/26 02:40:02 | 10/21 01:49:34 | +1h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.06 | 54.774 C/hr | 54.915 C/hr [45.7 – 64.13] | 47 C/hr | -7.915 C/hr | 1.1σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/20/26 19:30:02 | 10/20 15:37:05 | +4h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.06 | 57.598 C/hr | 60.911 C/hr [48.82 – 73] | 47 C/hr | -13.911 C/hr | 1.46σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/20/26 16:30:02 | 10/20 15:37:05 | +1h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.06 | 57.598 C/hr | 58.893 C/hr [49.89 – 67.89] | 49 C/hr | -9.893 C/hr | 1.4σ | ✓ Accurate |
| Target Time | Predicted At | Horizon | Model & R² | Start Value | Predicted (80% Cone) | Actual Reading | Error (Actual − Pred) | Z-Error | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/23/26 00:40:02 | 10/22 20:41:31 | +4h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.03 | 48.451 C/hr | 45.593 C/hr [32.65 – 58.54] | 66 C/hr | +20.407 C/hr | 2σ | ~ Minor Drift |