| Timestamp | Severity | Type | Value | Baseline | % vs Base | Rate of Change | Z-Value | Z-Rate | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/03/26 02:30:02 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 7.4 % | 1.07 | +594.8% | 0.011 | 5.03 | - |
55.9%
|
Volume cap: showing the latest 200 anomalies in this view. Narrow the time period to inspect earlier events.
|
| Timestamp | Severity | Type | Value | Baseline | % vs Base | Rate of Change | Z-Value | Z-Rate | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/03/26 02:30:02 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 7.4 % | 1.07 | +594.8% | 0.011 | 5.03 | - |
55.9%
|
| 11/01/26 01:50:03 | CRITICAL | Extreme Rate Spike | 1.3 % | 1.37 | -5.2% | 0.6 | -0.04 | 8.57 |
43%
|
| 11/01/26 01:40:04 | CRITICAL | Extreme Rate Spike | 0 % | 1.4 | -100% | -0.7 | -0.74 | -12.17 |
65%
|
| 11/01/26 01:30:04 | CRITICAL | Extreme Rate Spike | 1.4 % | 1.39 | +0.5% | 0.7 | 0 | 17.25 |
86.3%
|
| 11/01/26 01:20:03 | CRITICAL | Extreme Rate Spike | 0 % | 1.41 | -100% | -0.7 | -0.74 | -161.84 |
100%
|
| 10/27/26 10:10:03 | CRITICAL | Extreme Rate Spike | 0.7 % | 1.67 | -58% | -0.109 | -0.23 | -15.93 |
80.9%
|
| 10/27/26 10:00:04 | CRITICAL | Value & Rate Spike | 66 % | 1.45 | +4467.5% | 0.096 | 30.91 | 23.95 |
100%
|
| 10/27/26 03:10:03 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 8.8 % | 1.09 | +709.6% | 0.012 | 5.08 | - |
56.4%
|
| 10/27/26 02:40:03 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 8.7 % | 1.05 | +725.9% | 0.002 | 5.25 | - |
58.4%
|
| 10/27/26 02:30:02 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 7.4 % | 1.03 | +619.4% | 0.006 | 4.52 | - |
50.2%
|
| 10/27/26 01:40:03 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 9.4 % | 0.96 | +879.8% | 0.014 | 6.55 | - |
72.8%
|
| 10/27/26 00:10:04 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 8.8 % | 0.89 | +888.8% | 0.012 | 6.72 | - |
74.7%
|
| 10/26/26 23:50:03 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 6.7 % | 0.88 | +658.2% | 0.006 | 4.98 | - |
55.3%
|
| 10/20/26 03:30:03 | CRITICAL | Extreme Rate Spike | 1.3 % | 0.99 | +31.8% | -0.104 | 0.08 | -15.22 |
76.6%
|
| 10/20/26 03:20:03 | CRITICAL | Value & Rate Spike | 63.8 % | 0.77 | +8150% | 0.106 | 47.59 | 34.5 |
100%
|
| 10/20/26 02:30:03 | CRITICAL | Extreme Value Deviation | 10.1 % | 0.73 | +1277.9% | 0.016 | 7.75 | - |
86.1%
|
| 10/19/26 12:50:03 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 7.4 % | 0.77 | +855.2% | 0.012 | 5.34 | - |
59.4%
|
| 10/19/26 02:30:03 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 6.8 % | 0.73 | +833.6% | 0.011 | 5.09 | - |
56.6%
|
| 10/18/26 02:30:04 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 7.4 % | 0.71 | +949.1% | 0.012 | 5.04 | - |
56%
|
| 10/17/26 16:40:03 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 8.1 % | 0.67 | +1108.4% | 0.012 | 6 | - |
66.7%
|
| 10/17/26 02:30:03 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 7.3 % | 0.57 | +1173.3% | 0.01 | 5.82 | - |
64.7%
|
| 10/16/26 14:00:03 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 7.2 % | 0.64 | +1022.1% | 0.01 | 5.28 | - |
58.6%
|
| 10/16/26 13:20:03 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 7.3 % | 0.61 | +1090.9% | 0.007 | 5.66 | - |
62.9%
|
| 10/16/26 11:30:04 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 6.7 % | 0.6 | +1016.7% | 0.011 | 5.38 | - |
59.8%
|
| 10/16/26 02:30:05 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 8 % | 0.62 | +1196.6% | 0.012 | 6.7 | - |
74.4%
|
| 10/13/26 03:10:03 | CRITICAL | Extreme Rate Spike | 0.7 % | 1.04 | -32.5% | -0.092 | -0.1 | -14.56 |
73.3%
|
| 10/13/26 03:00:03 | CRITICAL | Value & Rate Spike | 55.6 % | 0.85 | +6415.6% | 0.085 | 42.27 | 21.36 |
100%
|
| 10/13/26 02:30:04 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 7.3 % | 0.83 | +780.2% | 0.006 | 5.24 | - |
58.2%
|
| 10/12/26 16:55:07 | CRITICAL | Extreme Rate Spike | 0.7 % | 0.85 | -18% | -0.046 | -0.12 | -16.02 |
80.8%
|
| 10/12/26 15:00:03 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 6.7 % | 0.82 | +716.7% | 0.006 | 4.91 | - |
54.6%
|
| 10/12/26 02:30:03 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 8 % | 0.83 | +869.3% | 0.013 | 6.17 | - |
68.6%
|
| 10/09/26 16:20:03 | CRITICAL | Extreme Value Deviation | 37 % | 2.2 | +1578.3% | 0.062 | 7.1 | - |
78.9%
|
| 10/08/26 00:30:17 | CRITICAL | Extreme Value Deviation | 53 % | 2.95 | +1696.4% | 0.086 | 7.4 | - |
82.2%
|
| 10/07/26 17:40:17 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 33.6 % | 2.52 | +1231.9% | 0.055 | 4.84 | - |
53.8%
|
| 10/06/26 21:00:03 | CRITICAL | Value & Rate Spike | 77.1 % | 1.88 | +4012% | 0.128 | 13.14 | 11.03 |
100%
|
| 10/06/26 19:00:17 | CRITICAL | Extreme Value Deviation | 43.3 % | 1.67 | +2488.7% | -0.013 | 8.06 | - |
89.6%
|
| 10/06/26 18:50:17 | CRITICAL | Extreme Value Deviation | 51.3 % | 1.5 | +3310.9% | 0.064 | 11.61 | - |
100%
|
| 10/05/26 07:00:04 | CRITICAL | Extreme Rate Spike | 0 % | 1.42 | -100% | -0.108 | -0.33 | -13.5 |
69.3%
|
| 10/05/26 06:50:03 | CRITICAL | Value & Rate Spike | 64.9 % | 1.21 | +5269.6% | 0.108 | 27.71 | 21.37 |
100%
|
| 10/03/26 16:20:03 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 9.3 % | 0.89 | +945.7% | 0.014 | 4.5 | - |
50%
|
| 10/03/26 11:40:02 | CRITICAL | Extreme Rate Spike | 4.7 % | 0.84 | +459.7% | -0.031 | 2.14 | -8.29 |
53.3%
|
| 10/03/26 11:30:14 | CRITICAL | Value & Rate Spike | 22.8 % | 0.77 | +2868.7% | 0.036 | 17.21 | 11.68 |
100%
|
| 10/03/26 10:40:03 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 7.4 % | 0.74 | +898.7% | 0.012 | 5.45 | - |
60.5%
|
| 10/03/26 09:40:03 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 6.8 % | 0.73 | +829% | 0.011 | 5.11 | - |
56.8%
|
| 10/01/26 03:40:03 | CRITICAL | Extreme Value Deviation | 32.5 % | 1.14 | +2752.5% | 0.054 | 7.85 | - |
87.2%
|
| 09/30/26 22:00:03 | CRITICAL | Extreme Value Deviation | 40.6 % | 0.96 | +4151.3% | 0.068 | 12.21 | - |
100%
|
| 09/30/26 07:20:06 | CRITICAL | Extreme Rate Spike | 4 % | 0.96 | +316.7% | -0.058 | 0.94 | -8.72 |
48.8%
|
| 09/30/26 07:10:02 | CRITICAL | Value & Rate Spike | 38.8 % | 0.83 | +4570.9% | 0.065 | 15.87 | 11.88 |
100%
|
| 09/29/26 06:50:05 | CRITICAL | Extreme Rate Spike | 3.4 % | 0.98 | +247.2% | -0.055 | 0.94 | -10.81 |
59.3%
|
| 09/29/26 06:40:03 | CRITICAL | Value & Rate Spike | 36.4 % | 0.86 | +4142.4% | 0.061 | 23.06 | 16.43 |
100%
|
| 09/28/26 02:30:03 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 10.7 % | 0.92 | +1066% | 0.017 | 6.13 | - |
68.1%
|
| 09/27/26 18:10:03 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 8.7 % | 0.85 | +917.9% | 0.014 | 5.25 | - |
58.3%
|
| 09/25/26 10:10:08 | CRITICAL | Extreme Rate Spike | 0.7 % | 0.91 | -23.2% | -0.072 | -0.07 | -13.42 |
67.5%
|
| 09/25/26 10:00:15 | CRITICAL | Value & Rate Spike | 43.5 % | 0.77 | +5573.9% | 0.07 | 27.08 | 19.48 |
100%
|
| 09/24/26 17:50:02 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 7.9 % | 0.76 | +934% | 0.012 | 4.72 | - |
52.5%
|
| 09/24/26 12:10:02 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 7.4 % | 0.69 | +979.2% | 0.008 | 5.1 | - |
56.7%
|
| 09/24/26 02:30:03 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 10.8 % | 0.65 | +1559% | 0.017 | 6.59 | - |
73.2%
|
| 09/23/26 21:40:03 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 7.4 % | 0.59 | +1157.1% | 0.011 | 4.68 | - |
52%
|
| 09/22/26 01:20:04 | WARNING | Rate Spike | 0.7 % | 0.91 | -23.2% | -0.032 | -0.09 | -6.29 |
32%
|
| 09/22/26 01:10:04 | CRITICAL | Extreme Value Deviation | 19.6 % | 0.85 | +2217.7% | 0.033 | 8.85 | - |
98.4%
|
| 09/20/26 06:50:03 | CRITICAL | Extreme Rate Spike | 4 % | 0.76 | +423.3% | -0.042 | 1.66 | -12.31 |
70.8%
|
| 09/20/26 06:40:03 | CRITICAL | Value & Rate Spike | 29.2 % | 0.67 | +4247.4% | 0.043 | 27.41 | 18.18 |
100%
|
| 09/20/26 02:30:03 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 7.3 % | 0.69 | +960.5% | 0.012 | 6.03 | - |
67.1%
|
| 09/17/26 08:00:04 | CRITICAL | Extreme Rate Spike | 4.1 % | 0.98 | +318.5% | -0.085 | 0.89 | -14.67 |
78.3%
|
| 09/17/26 07:50:02 | CRITICAL | Value & Rate Spike | 55.4 % | 0.8 | +6868.6% | 0.082 | 36.62 | 23.79 |
100%
|
| 09/15/26 06:00:03 | CRITICAL | Extreme Value Deviation | 15.2 % | 0.67 | +2178.9% | 0.025 | 11.16 | - |
100%
|
| 09/15/26 02:30:03 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 7.4 % | 0.68 | +987.2% | 0.012 | 5.2 | - |
57.8%
|
| 09/15/26 01:20:05 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 7.4 % | 0.67 | +1005.6% | 0.012 | 5.4 | - |
60%
|
| 09/14/26 23:30:02 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 7.3 % | 0.7 | +940.9% | 0.011 | 5.36 | - |
59.6%
|
| 09/14/26 22:10:04 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 7.5 % | 0.71 | +963.3% | 0.006 | 5.74 | - |
63.8%
|
| 09/12/26 08:00:04 | CRITICAL | Extreme Rate Spike | 0 % | 0.85 | -100% | -0.075 | -0.3 | -15.65 |
79.9%
|
| 09/12/26 07:50:03 | CRITICAL | Value & Rate Spike | 45.2 % | 0.69 | +6406.7% | 0.069 | 38.05 | 24.99 |
100%
|
| 09/12/26 02:30:03 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 7.3 % | 0.69 | +953.4% | 0.009 | 5.67 | - |
63%
|
| 09/09/26 01:50:18 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 44.4 % | 4.86 | +813% | 0.07 | 4.71 | - |
52.3%
|
| 09/08/26 21:10:17 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 54.4 % | 4.46 | +1120.2% | 0.061 | 6.33 | - |
70.3%
|
| 09/08/26 18:10:15 | CRITICAL | Extreme Value Deviation | 57.2 % | 4.08 | +1303.2% | 0.086 | 7.34 | - |
81.6%
|
| 09/07/26 08:40:22 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 26.5 % | 2.91 | +810.9% | 0.043 | 3.26 | - |
54.3%
|
| 09/07/26 08:10:22 | CRITICAL | Extreme Value Deviation | 39.6 % | 2.78 | +1327% | 0.065 | 5.31 | - |
88.6%
|
| 09/07/26 07:30:23 | CRITICAL | Extreme Value Deviation | 51 % | 2.57 | +1881.6% | 0.085 | 7.67 | - |
100%
|
| 09/07/26 03:40:27 | WARNING | Rate Spike | 11.5 % | 2.22 | +417.7% | -0.052 | 1.52 | -4.26 |
43.1%
|
| 09/07/26 03:30:21 | CRITICAL | Extreme Value Deviation | 42.8 % | 2.08 | +1959% | 0.043 | 7.2 | - |
100%
|
| 09/07/26 03:00:21 | CRITICAL | Extreme Value Deviation | 26.7 % | 1.93 | +1284.4% | 0.042 | 4.59 | - |
76.5%
|
| 09/07/26 00:20:22 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 18.4 % | 1.69 | +987.3% | 0.011 | 3.23 | - |
53.8%
|
| 09/05/26 20:20:21 | CRITICAL | Extreme Value Deviation | 25.7 % | 1.69 | +1421% | -0.044 | 4.81 | - |
80.1%
|
| 09/05/26 20:10:13 | CRITICAL | Value & Rate Spike | 52.6 % | 1.52 | +3368.1% | 0.086 | 12.67 | 9.43 |
100%
|
| 09/05/26 19:50:24 | CRITICAL | Extreme Value Deviation | 20.1 % | 1.45 | +1288.8% | 0.028 | 4.8 | - |
80%
|
| 09/05/26 18:50:20 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 17.4 % | 1.37 | +1168.5% | 0 | 4.25 | - |
70.8%
|
| 09/05/26 18:40:21 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 17.3 % | 1.31 | +1216.6% | 0.028 | 4.37 | - |
72.8%
|
| 09/05/26 17:50:03 | CRITICAL | Extreme Rate Spike | 4.1 % | 1.28 | +219.2% | -0.076 | 0.77 | -10.65 |
82.5%
|
| 09/05/26 17:40:21 | CRITICAL | Value & Rate Spike | 48.6 % | 1.12 | +4230.3% | 0.079 | 19.8 | 14.18 |
100%
|
| 09/05/26 17:10:30 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 11.4 % | 1.09 | +945.2% | 0.018 | 4.44 | - |
73.9%
|
| 09/05/26 16:00:03 | CRITICAL | Extreme Rate Spike | 0 % | 1.09 | -100% | -0.051 | -0.47 | -11.58 |
86.6%
|
| 09/05/26 15:50:24 | CRITICAL | Value & Rate Spike | 29.7 % | 0.99 | +2886.9% | 0.046 | 17.97 | 12.91 |
100%
|
| 09/05/26 08:50:02 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 6.7 % | 1.01 | +561.6% | 0.011 | 3.5 | - |
58.4%
|
| 09/05/26 02:30:02 | CRITICAL | Extreme Value Deviation | 10.1 % | 1.01 | +902% | 0.017 | 5.77 | - |
96.1%
|
| 09/04/26 06:30:03 | CRITICAL | Extreme Value Deviation | 7.4 % | 0.87 | +749.6% | 0.001 | 4.51 | - |
75.2%
|
| 09/04/26 06:20:03 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 6.8 % | 0.86 | +695.3% | 0 | 4.22 | - |
70.4%
|
| 09/04/26 06:10:03 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 6.8 % | 0.83 | +714.7% | 0.011 | 4.37 | - |
72.9%
|
| 09/04/26 02:30:03 | CRITICAL | Extreme Value Deviation | 10.1 % | 0.83 | +1113.5% | 0.017 | 6.49 | - |
100%
|
| 09/03/26 13:30:04 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 7.4 % | 0.91 | +713.5% | 0.011 | 3.79 | - |
63.1%
|
| 09/01/26 21:30:04 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 18.3 % | 1.26 | +1353.1% | 0.03 | 4.44 | - |
74%
|
| 09/01/26 09:40:03 | CRITICAL | Extreme Rate Spike | 0.7 % | 1.38 | -49.2% | -0.102 | -0.17 | -14.25 |
100%
|
| 09/01/26 09:30:03 | CRITICAL | Value & Rate Spike | 61.6 % | 1.17 | +5151.5% | 0.101 | 34.82 | 24.66 |
100%
|
| 09/01/26 02:30:03 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 7.4 % | 1.11 | +569.7% | 0.012 | 3.56 | - |
59.3%
|
| 08/31/26 02:30:02 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 7.4 % | 1.15 | +543.3% | 0.007 | 3.32 | - |
55.3%
|
| 08/30/26 21:50:03 | WARNING | Rate Spike | 0.7 % | 1.06 | -34% | -0.018 | -0.19 | -4.18 |
31.4%
|
| 08/30/26 21:40:02 | CRITICAL | Extreme Value Deviation | 11.4 % | 1.02 | +1012.9% | 0.019 | 5.9 | - |
98.3%
|
| 08/30/26 20:10:03 | CRITICAL | Extreme Value Deviation | 9.4 % | 0.99 | +852.7% | 0.014 | 5.01 | - |
83.4%
|
| 08/30/26 14:20:02 | CRITICAL | Extreme Value Deviation | 8.8 % | 0.84 | +941.8% | 0.015 | 5.29 | - |
88.2%
|
| 08/30/26 12:40:03 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 5.3 % | 0.82 | +546.1% | 0.008 | 3.04 | - |
50.6%
|
| 08/30/26 06:40:03 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 6.7 % | 0.84 | +700.2% | 0.01 | 3.6 | - |
60%
|
| 08/30/26 05:20:04 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 7.4 % | 0.81 | +815.5% | 0.012 | 4.21 | - |
70.1%
|
| 08/30/26 02:30:04 | CRITICAL | Extreme Value Deviation | 8.1 % | 0.84 | +868.5% | 0.013 | 4.64 | - |
77.3%
|
| 08/29/26 20:00:03 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 8.8 % | 0.97 | +808.5% | 0.015 | 4.4 | - |
73.3%
|
| 08/29/26 07:40:04 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 8.8 % | 1.02 | +761.3% | 0.015 | 4.35 | - |
72.4%
|
| 08/29/26 02:30:02 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 7.4 % | 1.01 | +635.3% | 0.011 | 3.61 | - |
60.1%
|
| 08/28/26 10:30:02 | CRITICAL | Extreme Value Deviation | 9.4 % | 1.06 | +788.7% | 0.014 | 4.64 | - |
77.3%
|
| 08/28/26 10:10:03 | CRITICAL | Extreme Value Deviation | 10.9 % | 1.02 | +969.3% | 0.017 | 5.79 | - |
96.4%
|
| 08/28/26 08:30:02 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 7.5 % | 1 | +652.5% | 0.009 | 3.9 | - |
65.1%
|
| 08/28/26 02:30:02 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 6.8 % | 0.97 | +603.4% | 0.01 | 3.49 | - |
58.2%
|
| 08/27/26 23:20:03 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 7.4 % | 0.91 | +712.9% | 0.012 | 4.02 | - |
66.9%
|
| 08/27/26 22:20:03 | CRITICAL | Extreme Rate Spike | 0.7 % | 0.91 | -23.5% | -0.018 | -0.13 | -5.49 |
40.3%
|
| 08/27/26 22:10:03 | CRITICAL | Extreme Value Deviation | 11.4 % | 0.88 | +1200.4% | 0.004 | 7.02 | - |
100%
|
| 08/27/26 22:00:03 | CRITICAL | Extreme Value Deviation | 8.8 % | 0.85 | +938.6% | 0.015 | 5.57 | - |
92.8%
|
| 08/27/26 20:40:03 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 5.4 % | 0.83 | +553% | 0.006 | 3.25 | - |
54.2%
|
| 08/27/26 18:00:03 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 6 % | 0.74 | +711.9% | 0.007 | 3.99 | - |
66.6%
|
| 08/27/26 16:30:03 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 4.7 % | 0.72 | +551.6% | 0.008 | 3.07 | - |
51.2%
|
| 08/27/26 14:00:02 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 4.7 % | 0.68 | +594.9% | 0.007 | 3.23 | - |
53.8%
|
| 08/27/26 13:20:03 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 4.6 % | 0.67 | +589.3% | 0.007 | 3.19 | - |
53.2%
|
| 08/27/26 11:40:03 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 5.4 % | 0.64 | +743.7% | 0.001 | 3.93 | - |
65.4%
|
| 08/27/26 11:30:03 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 4.7 % | 0.62 | +652.8% | 0.006 | 3.42 | - |
57.1%
|
| 08/27/26 02:40:04 | WARNING | Rate Spike | 0.7 % | 0.63 | +11.1% | -0.011 | 0.05 | -3.97 |
28.8%
|
| 08/27/26 02:30:04 | CRITICAL | Extreme Value Deviation | 7.4 % | 0.61 | +1121.8% | 0.011 | 5.6 | - |
93.3%
|
| 08/26/26 19:20:03 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 5.3 % | 0.58 | +821.7% | 0.009 | 4.1 | - |
68.3%
|
| 08/26/26 17:30:03 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 4.1 % | 0.57 | +613.5% | 0.006 | 3.04 | - |
50.6%
|
| 08/26/26 15:40:03 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 4.1 % | 0.58 | +611% | 0.001 | 3.08 | - |
51.3%
|
| 08/26/26 15:20:04 | CRITICAL | Extreme Value Deviation | 8.2 % | 0.57 | +1350.5% | 0.01 | 6.84 | - |
100%
|
| 08/26/26 10:10:03 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 5.4 % | 0.64 | +742% | 0.008 | 3.58 | - |
59.7%
|
| 08/26/26 02:30:02 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 7.4 % | 0.8 | +823.8% | 0.011 | 4.19 | - |
69.9%
|
| 08/25/26 05:30:04 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 7.2 % | 0.99 | +625.8% | 0.012 | 3.4 | - |
56.7%
|
| 08/25/26 02:30:03 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 7.4 % | 1.03 | +621.2% | 0.011 | 3.43 | - |
57.2%
|
| 08/24/26 13:30:04 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 7.4 % | 1.09 | +579.1% | 0.011 | 3.32 | - |
55.4%
|
| 08/24/26 12:40:04 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 6.8 % | 1.07 | +535.9% | 0.011 | 3.06 | - |
51.1%
|
| 08/24/26 11:40:04 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 7.4 % | 1.05 | +602.3% | 0.012 | 3.45 | - |
57.5%
|
| 08/24/26 11:10:04 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 7.5 % | 1.07 | +598.3% | 0.012 | 3.31 | - |
55.2%
|
| 08/24/26 07:00:04 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 7.4 % | 1.03 | +620.8% | 0.012 | 3.34 | - |
55.7%
|
| 08/24/26 06:10:03 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 7.4 % | 1.01 | +635.3% | 0.007 | 3.41 | - |
56.9%
|
| 08/24/26 05:20:03 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 7.4 % | 0.96 | +667.6% | 0.011 | 3.52 | - |
58.7%
|
| 08/24/26 02:30:03 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 7.4 % | 0.97 | +666% | 0.011 | 3.47 | - |
57.9%
|
| 08/23/26 13:10:03 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 7.4 % | 0.97 | +666.8% | 0 | 3.48 | - |
58.1%
|
| 08/23/26 13:00:03 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 7.4 % | 0.94 | +685% | 0.001 | 3.57 | - |
59.5%
|
| 08/23/26 12:50:03 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 6.8 % | 0.92 | +639.1% | -0.001 | 3.31 | - |
55.1%
|
| 08/23/26 12:40:03 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 7.4 % | 0.9 | +726.5% | 0.012 | 3.74 | - |
62.4%
|
| 08/23/26 12:20:03 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 7.4 % | 0.88 | +741.2% | 0.012 | 3.84 | - |
64%
|
| 08/23/26 10:40:03 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 7.4 % | 0.86 | +758.5% | 0.012 | 3.91 | - |
65.1%
|
| 08/23/26 02:30:04 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 7.4 % | 0.87 | +751.9% | 0.011 | 3.87 | - |
64.5%
|
| 08/23/26 01:20:03 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 7.4 % | 0.84 | +784.1% | 0.011 | 3.98 | - |
66.4%
|
| 08/22/26 17:30:02 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 6 % | 0.77 | +676.5% | 0.009 | 3.23 | - |
53.9%
|
| 08/22/26 09:30:02 | CRITICAL | Extreme Value Deviation | 13.6 % | 0.72 | +1794.2% | 0.023 | 8.76 | - |
100%
|
| 08/22/26 08:30:03 | CRITICAL | Extreme Value Deviation | 8.8 % | 0.7 | +1153.6% | 0.013 | 5.73 | - |
95.4%
|
| 08/22/26 07:40:04 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 5.4 % | 0.68 | +692.2% | 0.008 | 3.4 | - |
56.6%
|
| 08/22/26 02:40:04 | WARNING | Rate Spike | 0.7 % | 0.72 | -3.4% | -0.015 | -0.02 | -4.31 |
30.9%
|
| 08/22/26 02:30:03 | CRITICAL | Extreme Value Deviation | 9.5 % | 0.69 | +1270.9% | 0.015 | 6.47 | - |
100%
|
| 08/21/26 21:30:03 | CRITICAL | Extreme Value Deviation | 6.8 % | 0.66 | +925.6% | 0.01 | 4.58 | - |
76.4%
|
| 08/21/26 12:30:04 | CRITICAL | Extreme Value Deviation | 7.5 % | 0.77 | +879.5% | 0.01 | 4.82 | - |
80.3%
|
| 08/21/26 08:30:03 | CRITICAL | Extreme Value Deviation | 6.8 % | 0.73 | +831.9% | 0.011 | 4.55 | - |
75.9%
|
| 08/21/26 02:30:02 | CRITICAL | Extreme Value Deviation | 7.4 % | 0.77 | +860.6% | 0.012 | 4.77 | - |
79.5%
|
| 08/20/26 10:50:03 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 7.4 % | 0.99 | +646.7% | 0.011 | 4.16 | - |
69.4%
|
| 08/20/26 10:20:03 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 6.7 % | 1 | +569.8% | 0.01 | 3.6 | - |
60%
|
| 08/20/26 02:30:03 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 7.4 % | 1 | +642.7% | 0.012 | 4.09 | - |
68.1%
|
| 08/19/26 23:30:03 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 6 % | 0.99 | +504.6% | 0.01 | 3.26 | - |
54.3%
|
| 08/19/26 18:10:02 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 6 % | 0.95 | +528.7% | 0.009 | 3.25 | - |
54.2%
|
| 08/19/26 02:30:03 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 6.8 % | 0.92 | +636.5% | 0.007 | 3.59 | - |
59.8%
|
| 08/19/26 01:10:03 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 7.4 % | 0.89 | +734% | 0.007 | 4.09 | - |
68.1%
|
| 08/18/26 14:00:03 | CRITICAL | Extreme Value Deviation | 8.7 % | 0.82 | +960.1% | 0.014 | 5.19 | - |
86.6%
|
| 08/18/26 09:10:04 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 6.1 % | 0.82 | +643.3% | 0.009 | 3.49 | - |
58.2%
|
| 08/18/26 08:50:03 | WARNING | Rate Spike | 1.4 % | 0.81 | +72.1% | -0.014 | 0.39 | -4.08 |
32.3%
|
| 08/18/26 08:40:03 | CRITICAL | Extreme Value Deviation | 9.5 % | 0.78 | +1114.8% | 0.015 | 6.11 | - |
100%
|
| 08/18/26 02:30:03 | CRITICAL | Extreme Value Deviation | 7.4 % | 0.81 | +814% | 0.011 | 4.52 | - |
75.4%
|
| 08/17/26 19:40:02 | CRITICAL | Extreme Value Deviation | 8.7 % | 0.8 | +987% | 0.013 | 5.62 | - |
93.7%
|
| 08/17/26 15:30:04 | CRITICAL | Extreme Value Deviation | 7.4 % | 0.78 | +847.5% | 0.011 | 4.91 | - |
81.9%
|
| 08/17/26 12:40:03 | CRITICAL | Extreme Value Deviation | 7.5 % | 0.79 | +855% | -0.002 | 5.13 | - |
85.5%
|
| 08/17/26 12:30:03 | CRITICAL | Extreme Value Deviation | 8.7 % | 0.76 | +1046.7% | 0.014 | 6.47 | - |
100%
|
| 08/17/26 02:30:03 | CRITICAL | Extreme Value Deviation | 7.4 % | 0.8 | +823.1% | 0.011 | 5.27 | - |
87.8%
|
| 08/16/26 16:40:02 | CRITICAL | Extreme Value Deviation | 6.8 % | 0.8 | +753.2% | 0.01 | 4.93 | - |
82.2%
|
| 08/16/26 14:10:04 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 4.7 % | 0.78 | +505.2% | 0.007 | 3.31 | - |
55.1%
|
| 08/16/26 08:30:03 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 6 % | 0.78 | +670.2% | 0.003 | 4.42 | - |
73.7%
|
| 08/16/26 04:40:02 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 4.7 % | 0.78 | +501.3% | 0.007 | 3.36 | - |
56%
|
| 08/16/26 02:40:03 | WARNING | Rate Spike | 1.4 % | 0.81 | +73.7% | -0.01 | 0.48 | -3.68 |
30.3%
|
| 08/16/26 02:30:03 | CRITICAL | Extreme Value Deviation | 7.4 % | 0.78 | +844.3% | 0.001 | 5.6 | - |
93.3%
|
| 08/16/26 02:20:03 | CRITICAL | Extreme Value Deviation | 6.8 % | 0.77 | +780.4% | 0.011 | 5.29 | - |
88.1%
|
| 08/15/26 02:40:04 | WARNING | Rate Spike | 0.7 % | 0.87 | -19.8% | -0.011 | -0.13 | -3.69 |
27.5%
|
| 08/15/26 02:30:03 | CRITICAL | Extreme Value Deviation | 7.4 % | 0.85 | +772% | 0.011 | 5.09 | - |
84.9%
|
| 08/14/26 20:20:02 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 5.4 % | 0.83 | +554.5% | 0.009 | 3.65 | - |
60.8%
|
| 08/14/26 07:00:03 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 4.7 % | 0.78 | +501.5% | 0.005 | 3.09 | - |
51.5%
|
| 08/14/26 04:40:02 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 4.7 % | 0.77 | +507% | 0.008 | 3.02 | - |
50.4%
|
| 08/14/26 02:30:03 | CRITICAL | Extreme Value Deviation | 7.3 % | 0.79 | +824.1% | 0.011 | 4.8 | - |
80%
|
| 08/14/26 02:00:02 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 4.8 % | 0.77 | +520.2% | 0.008 | 3.01 | - |
50.2%
|
| 08/13/26 02:30:02 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 8.1 % | 0.9 | +801% | 0.012 | 4.24 | - |
70.6%
|
| 08/12/26 14:00:04 | WARNING | Value Deviation | 6 % | 0.84 | +611.7% | 0.009 | 3.09 | - |
51.5%
|
🎬 Walk-Forward Forecast Cone Replay
Quick Compare:
|
Speed:
Trail:
⏱ Playhead Frame
—
📍 Fitted Value & Velocity
—
📐 Active Model & Fit
—
🔮 +1h Cone Forecast vs Actual
—
🔭 +4h Cone Forecast vs Actual
—
🎯 Running Replay Scorecard
—
🔮 Next Short Forecast (+1h)
1.788 %
(+0.21)
Target: 04:00 · 80% Cone: [0 – 3.64]
🔭 Next Long Forecast (+4h)
2.111 %
(+0.53)
Target: 07:00 · 80% Cone: [0 – 4.6]
🎯 Out-of-Sample Accuracy
95.7%
(94 checked)
MAE: 2.793 % · RMSE: 3.812 % · Fit R²=0.07
🚨 Historical Failures & Drift
1 diverged
7 minor drift · Max Z-Error: 3σ
|
| Target Time | Predicted At | Horizon | Model & R² | Start Value | Predicted (80% Cone) | Actual Reading | Error (Actual − Pred) | Z-Error | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/03/26 07:00:05 (in 3.8h) | 11/03 03:03:23 | +4h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.03 | 1.58 % | 2.111 % [0 – 4.6] | ⏳ Waiting | - | - | ⏳ Pending |
| 11/03/26 04:00:05 (in 48m) | 11/03 03:03:23 | +1h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.03 | 1.58 % | 1.788 % [0 – 3.64] | ⏳ Waiting | - | - | ⏳ Pending |
| 11/02/26 07:40:03 | 11/02 03:48:39 | +4h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.04 | 2.058 % | 2.701 % [0 – 5.41] | 2 % | -0.701 % | 0.33σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 11/02/26 04:40:03 | 11/02 03:48:39 | +1h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.04 | 2.058 % | 2.309 % [0.3 – 4.32] | 0.7 % | -1.609 % | 1.02σ | ✓ Accurate |
|
| Target Time | Predicted At | Horizon | Model & R² | Start Value | Predicted (80% Cone) | Actual Reading | Error (Actual − Pred) | Z-Error | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/03/26 07:00:05 (in 3.8h) | 11/03 03:03:23 | +4h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.03 | 1.58 % | 2.111 % [0 – 4.6] | ⏳ Waiting | - | - | ⏳ Pending |
| 11/03/26 04:00:05 (in 48m) | 11/03 03:03:23 | +1h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.03 | 1.58 % | 1.788 % [0 – 3.64] | ⏳ Waiting | - | - | ⏳ Pending |
| 11/02/26 07:40:03 | 11/02 03:48:39 | +4h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.04 | 2.058 % | 2.701 % [0 – 5.41] | 2 % | -0.701 % | 0.33σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 11/02/26 04:40:03 | 11/02 03:48:39 | +1h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.04 | 2.058 % | 2.309 % [0.3 – 4.32] | 0.7 % | -1.609 % | 1.02σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/25/26 17:50:03 | 10/25 13:54:50 | +4h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.06 | 1.287 % | 1.359 % [0 – 3.83] | No reading | - | - | No Reading |
| 10/25/26 14:50:03 | 10/25 13:54:50 | +1h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.06 | 1.287 % | 1.315 % [0 – 3.16] | No reading | - | - | No Reading |
| 10/23/26 19:20:04 | 10/23 15:24:07 | +4h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.13 | 0.696 % | 0.588 % [0 – 7.74] | 0.7 % | +0.112 % | 0.02σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/23/26 16:20:04 | 10/23 15:24:07 | +1h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.13 | 0.696 % | 0.654 % [0 – 5.98] | 0 % | -0.654 % | 0.16σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/23/26 10:00:03 | 10/23 06:03:51 | +4h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.12 | 3.49 % | 2.676 % [0 – 9.13] | 0 % | -2.676 % | 0.53σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/23/26 09:40:03 | 10/23 05:43:01 | +4h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.13 | 3.628 % | 3.829 % [0 – 10.66] | 2 % | -1.829 % | 0.34σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/23/26 09:00:05 | 10/23 05:00:33 | +4h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.13 | 3.448 % | 5.916 % [0 – 12.27] | 1.3 % | -4.616 % | 0.92σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/23/26 08:10:03 | 10/23 04:14:07 | +4h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.14 | 3.858 % | 4.82 % [0 – 11.49] | 0.7 % | -4.12 % | 0.78σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/23/26 07:40:03 | 10/23 03:45:23 | +4h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.14 | 2.768 % | 1.785 % [0 – 8.27] | 0.7 % | -1.085 % | 0.21σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/23/26 07:00:03 | 10/23 03:09:01 | +4h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.10 | 1.592 % | 0.06 % [0 – 8.88] | 0 % | -0.06 % | 0.01σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/23/26 07:00:03 | 10/23 06:03:51 | +1h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.12 | 3.49 % | 3.172 % [0 – 7.98] | 0 % | -3.172 % | 0.84σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/23/26 06:40:03 | 10/23 05:43:01 | +1h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.13 | 3.628 % | 3.707 % [0 – 8.79] | 0.7 % | -3.007 % | 0.75σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/23/26 06:00:05 | 10/23 05:00:33 | +1h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.13 | 3.448 % | 4.413 % [0 – 9.14] | 0 % | -4.413 % | 1.19σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/23/26 05:10:03 | 10/23 04:14:07 | +1h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.14 | 3.858 % | 4.234 % [0 – 9.2] | 13.5 % | +9.266 % | 2.38σ | ~ Minor Drift |
| 10/23/26 04:40:03 | 10/23 03:45:23 | +1h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.14 | 2.768 % | 2.384 % [0 – 7.21] | 0 % | -2.384 % | 0.63σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/23/26 04:00:03 | 10/23 03:09:01 | +1h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.10 | 1.592 % | 0.993 % [0 – 7.56] | 2.7 % | +1.707 % | 0.33σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/23/26 02:00:04 | 10/22 22:00:25 | +4h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.07 | 3.575 % | 3.054 % [0 – 11.92] | 2 % | -1.054 % | 0.15σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/23/26 01:20:06 | 10/22 21:20:47 | +4h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.08 | 4.767 % | 6.348 % [0 – 15.45] | 0 % | -6.348 % | 0.89σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/22/26 23:00:04 | 10/22 22:00:25 | +1h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.07 | 3.575 % | 3.372 % [0 – 9.97] | 10 % | +6.628 % | 1.28σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/22/26 22:40:03 | 10/22 18:42:52 | +4h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.18 | 3.228 % | 1.13 % [0 – 6.78] | 9.5 % | +8.37 % | 1.88σ | ~ Minor Drift |
| 10/22/26 22:20:06 | 10/22 21:20:47 | +1h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.08 | 4.767 % | 5.385 % [0 – 12.16] | 2.7 % | -2.685 % | 0.51σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/22/26 19:40:03 | 10/22 18:42:52 | +1h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.18 | 3.228 % | 2.408 % [0 – 6.61] | 6.6 % | +4.192 % | 1.27σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/22/26 17:30:03 | 10/22 13:33:04 | +4h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.08 | 3.33 % | 0.944 % [0 – 9.67] | 0 % | -0.944 % | 0.14σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/22/26 14:30:03 | 10/22 13:33:04 | +1h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.08 | 3.33 % | 2.398 % [0 – 8.9] | 12.2 % | +9.802 % | 1.93σ | ~ Minor Drift |
| 10/22/26 14:10:03 | 10/22 10:18:10 | +4h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.07 | 3.825 % | 6.912 % [0 – 15.28] | 5.4 % | -1.512 % | 0.23σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/22/26 11:10:03 | 10/22 10:18:10 | +1h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.07 | 3.825 % | 5.031 % [0 – 11.26] | 9.5 % | +4.469 % | 0.92σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/22/26 08:50:03 | 10/22 04:56:19 | +4h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.08 | 3.575 % | 1.316 % [0 – 9.73] | 0.7 % | -0.616 % | 0.09σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/22/26 07:20:03 | 10/22 03:21:38 | +4h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.09 | 5.425 % | 7.194 % [0 – 15.47] | 0 % | -7.194 % | 1.1σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/22/26 05:50:03 | 10/22 04:56:19 | +1h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.08 | 3.575 % | 2.692 % [0 – 8.95] | 0 % | -2.692 % | 0.55σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/22/26 04:20:03 | 10/22 03:21:38 | +1h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.09 | 5.425 % | 6.117 % [0 – 12.28] | 0.7 % | -5.417 % | 1.12σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/22/26 01:40:03 | 10/21 21:44:36 | +4h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.22 | 4.38 % | 2.851 % [0 – 7.07] | 12.8 % | +9.949 % | 3σ | 🚨 Diverged |
| 10/22/26 01:00:03 | 10/21 21:03:49 | +4h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.08 | 4.816 % | 6.079 % [0 – 14.1] | 0 % | -6.079 % | 0.96σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/21/26 23:20:03 | 10/21 19:26:26 | +4h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.07 | 4.544 % | 3.935 % [0 – 11.83] | 2.7 % | -1.235 % | 0.2σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/21/26 22:40:03 | 10/21 21:44:36 | +1h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.22 | 4.38 % | 3.782 % [0.64 – 6.92] | 2.7 % | -1.082 % | 0.44σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/21/26 22:20:04 | 10/21 18:25:11 | +4h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.07 | 3.434 % | 4 % [0 – 11.8] | 0.7 % | -3.3 % | 0.54σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/21/26 22:00:03 | 10/21 21:03:49 | +1h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.08 | 4.816 % | 5.31 % [0 – 11.28] | 0 % | -5.31 % | 1.13σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/21/26 21:30:04 | 10/21 17:35:00 | +4h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.06 | 3.219 % | 5.045 % [0 – 12.79] | 0 % | -5.045 % | 0.83σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/21/26 20:20:03 | 10/21 19:26:26 | +1h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.07 | 4.544 % | 4.306 % [0 – 10.18] | 8.1 % | +3.794 % | 0.82σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/21/26 19:20:04 | 10/21 18:25:11 | +1h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.07 | 3.434 % | 3.655 % [0 – 9.46] | 2 % | -1.655 % | 0.36σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/21/26 19:20:03 | 10/21 15:26:36 | +4h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.07 | 1.539 % | 0 % [0 – 7.48] | 2 % | +2 % | 0.34σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/21/26 18:30:04 | 10/21 17:35:00 | +1h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.06 | 3.219 % | 3.932 % [0 – 9.7] | 12.1 % | +8.168 % | 1.81σ | ~ Minor Drift |
| 10/21/26 17:40:03 | 10/21 13:46:40 | +4h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.06 | 3.252 % | 2.152 % [0 – 9.6] | 8 % | +5.848 % | 1σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/21/26 16:50:03 | 10/21 12:51:02 | +4h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.24 | 4.661 % | 4.028 % [0.61 – 7.45] | 0 % | -4.028 % | 1.5σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/21/26 16:30:03 | 10/21 12:30:37 | +4h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.08 | 6.043 % | 8.289 % [0.91 – 15.67] | 2 % | -6.289 % | 1.08σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/21/26 16:20:03 | 10/21 15:26:36 | +1h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.07 | 1.539 % | 0.541 % [0 – 6.11] | 4.5 % | +3.959 % | 0.91σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/21/26 15:20:03 | 10/21 11:26:08 | +4h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.06 | 5.015 % | 6.485 % [0 – 13.81] | 0 % | -6.485 % | 1.13σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/21/26 15:00:03 | 10/21 11:03:37 | +4h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.04 | 4.132 % | 2.823 % [0 – 10.1] | 0.7 % | -2.123 % | 0.37σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/21/26 14:40:03 | 10/21 13:46:40 | +1h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.06 | 3.252 % | 2.822 % [0 – 8.37] | 0 % | -2.822 % | 0.65σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/21/26 14:30:03 | 10/21 10:36:52 | +4h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.04 | 3.909 % | 4.402 % [0 – 11.65] | 0 % | -4.402 % | 0.77σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/21/26 13:50:03 | 10/21 12:51:02 | +1h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.24 | 4.661 % | 4.414 % [1.87 – 6.96] | 3.4 % | -1.014 % | 0.51σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/21/26 13:30:03 | 10/21 12:30:37 | +1h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.08 | 6.043 % | 6.921 % [1.43 – 12.42] | 2.7 % | -4.221 % | 0.98σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/21/26 13:20:04 | 10/21 09:27:56 | +4h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.03 | 3.229 % | 4.46 % [0 – 11.7] | 3.4 % | -1.06 % | 0.19σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/21/26 12:20:03 | 10/21 11:26:08 | +1h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.06 | 5.015 % | 5.589 % [0.14 – 11.04] | 7.4 % | +1.811 % | 0.42σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/21/26 12:00:03 | 10/21 08:05:41 | +4h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.02 | 1.535 % | 0.786 % [0 – 7.84] | 1.3 % | +0.514 % | 0.09σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/21/26 12:00:03 | 10/21 11:03:37 | +1h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.04 | 4.132 % | 3.621 % [0 – 9.04] | 1.3 % | -2.321 % | 0.55σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/21/26 11:30:04 | 10/21 07:30:43 | +4h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.03 | 2.441 % | 3.061 % [0 – 10.17] | 0.7 % | -2.361 % | 0.42σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/21/26 11:30:03 | 10/21 10:36:52 | +1h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.04 | 3.909 % | 4.102 % [0 – 9.5] | 0.7 % | -3.402 % | 0.8σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/21/26 10:20:04 | 10/21 09:27:56 | +1h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.03 | 3.229 % | 3.71 % [0 – 9.1] | 4.1 % | +0.39 % | 0.09σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/21/26 10:10:03 | 10/21 06:14:54 | +4h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.02 | 2.304 % | 2.349 % [0 – 9.41] | 1.3 % | -1.049 % | 0.19σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/21/26 09:50:03 | 10/21 05:52:49 | +4h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.09 | 3.081 % | 3.404 % [1.02 – 5.79] | 2.7 % | -0.704 % | 0.35σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/21/26 09:00:03 | 10/21 08:05:41 | +1h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.02 | 1.535 % | 1.243 % [0 – 6.49] | 11.5 % | +10.257 % | 2.49σ | ~ Minor Drift |
| 10/21/26 09:00:03 | 10/21 05:08:56 | +4h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.02 | 2.156 % | 3.172 % [0 – 10.18] | 11.5 % | +8.328 % | 1.51σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/21/26 08:30:04 | 10/21 07:30:43 | +1h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.03 | 2.441 % | 2.683 % [0 – 7.98] | 0 % | -2.683 % | 0.65σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/21/26 07:30:03 | 10/21 03:34:11 | +4h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.02 | 1.584 % | 2.015 % [0 – 9.08] | 5.4 % | +3.385 % | 0.61σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/21/26 07:10:03 | 10/21 06:14:54 | +1h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.02 | 2.304 % | 2.322 % [0 – 7.57] | 0.7 % | -1.622 % | 0.39σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/21/26 06:50:03 | 10/21 05:52:49 | +1h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.09 | 3.081 % | 3.207 % [1.43 – 4.98] | 0.7 % | -2.507 % | 1.68σ | ~ Minor Drift |
| 10/21/26 06:40:03 | 10/21 02:44:52 | +4h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.02 | 1.459 % | 2.553 % [0 – 9.6] | 0 % | -2.553 % | 0.46σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/21/26 06:00:03 | 10/21 05:08:56 | +1h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.02 | 2.156 % | 2.553 % [0 – 7.77] | 3.4 % | +0.847 % | 0.21σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/21/26 05:40:03 | 10/21 01:49:34 | +4h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.04 | 0.561 % | 0.353 % [0 – 9.09] | 4.8 % | +4.447 % | 0.65σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/21/26 04:30:03 | 10/21 03:34:11 | +1h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.02 | 1.584 % | 1.752 % [0 – 7.01] | 4.7 % | +2.948 % | 0.72σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/21/26 03:40:03 | 10/21 02:44:52 | +1h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.02 | 1.459 % | 1.887 % [0 – 7.13] | 1.4 % | -0.487 % | 0.12σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/21/26 02:40:03 | 10/21 01:49:34 | +1h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.04 | 0.561 % | 0.48 % [0 – 6.98] | 0.7 % | +0.22 % | 0.04σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/20/26 19:30:03 | 10/20 15:37:05 | +4h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.04 | 0.812 % | 0.87 % [0 – 9.71] | 0 % | -0.87 % | 0.13σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/20/26 16:30:03 | 10/20 15:37:05 | +1h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.04 | 0.812 % | 0.834 % [0 – 7.42] | 0.7 % | -0.134 % | 0.03σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/19/26 21:10:03 | 10/19 20:10:03 | +1h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.01 | 0.597 % | 0.322 % [0 – 2.19] | 0 % | -0.322 % | 0.22σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/19/26 21:10:02 | 10/19 17:10:02 | +4h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.01 | 1.211 % | 2.518 % [0 – 5.06] | 0 % | -2.518 % | 1.26σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/19/26 20:10:04 | 10/19 19:10:04 | +1h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.01 | 1.129 % | 0.886 % [0 – 2.71] | 0.7 % | -0.186 % | 0.13σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/19/26 18:10:02 | 10/19 17:10:02 | +1h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.01 | 1.211 % | 1.722 % [0 – 3.61] | 0 % | -1.722 % | 1.16σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/19/26 17:10:03 | 10/19 13:10:03 | +4h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.01 | 0.875 % | 1.122 % [0 – 3.7] | 5.4 % | +4.278 % | 2.11σ | ~ Minor Drift |
| 10/19/26 14:10:03 | 10/19 13:10:03 | +1h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.01 | 0.875 % | 0.972 % [0 – 2.89] | 0 % | -0.972 % | 0.65σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/19/26 13:10:03 | 10/19 09:10:03 | +4h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.01 | 1.466 % | 1.429 % [0 – 3.87] | 0 % | -1.429 % | 0.74σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/19/26 10:10:03 | 10/19 09:10:03 | +1h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.01 | 1.466 % | 1.452 % [0 – 3.27] | 0 % | -1.452 % | 1.02σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/19/26 09:10:02 | 10/19 05:10:02 | +4h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.01 | 0.477 % | 0 % [0 – 2.38] | 0.7 % | +0.7 % | 0.37σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/19/26 06:10:02 | 10/19 05:10:02 | +1h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.01 | 0.477 % | 0.221 % [0 – 1.99] | 0 % | -0.221 % | 0.16σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/19/26 05:10:04 | 10/19 01:10:04 | +4h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.02 | 0.574 % | 0 % [0 – 2.34] | 0 % | 0 % | 0σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/19/26 02:10:04 | 10/19 01:10:04 | +1h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.02 | 0.574 % | 0.249 % [0 – 1.99] | 0 % | -0.249 % | 0.18σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/19/26 01:10:03 | 10/18 21:10:03 | +4h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.02 | 0.528 % | 0 % [0 – 2.35] | 0 % | 0 % | 0σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/18/26 22:10:03 | 10/18 21:10:03 | +1h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.02 | 0.528 % | 0.275 % [0 – 2.02] | 0 % | -0.275 % | 0.2σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/18/26 21:10:03 | 10/18 17:10:03 | +4h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.02 | 0.639 % | 0.616 % [0 – 2.99] | 0 % | -0.616 % | 0.33σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/18/26 18:10:03 | 10/18 17:10:03 | +1h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.02 | 0.639 % | 0.63 % [0 – 2.4] | 0.7 % | +0.07 % | 0.05σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/18/26 17:10:03 | 10/18 13:10:03 | +4h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.03 | 0.588 % | 0 % [0 – 2.43] | 0 % | 0 % | 0σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/18/26 14:10:03 | 10/18 13:10:03 | +1h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.03 | 0.588 % | 0.323 % [0 – 2.13] | 0 % | -0.323 % | 0.23σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/18/26 13:10:03 | 10/18 09:10:03 | +4h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.03 | 0.627 % | 0.866 % [0 – 3.27] | 0.7 % | -0.166 % | 0.09σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/18/26 10:10:03 | 10/18 09:10:03 | +1h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.03 | 0.627 % | 0.721 % [0 – 2.51] | 0.7 % | -0.021 % | 0.02σ | ✓ Accurate |
|
| Target Time | Predicted At | Horizon | Model & R² | Start Value | Predicted (80% Cone) | Actual Reading | Error (Actual − Pred) | Z-Error | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/23/26 05:10:03 | 10/23 04:14:07 | +1h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.14 | 3.858 % | 4.234 % [0 – 9.2] | 13.5 % | +9.266 % | 2.38σ | ~ Minor Drift |
| 10/22/26 01:40:03 | 10/21 21:44:36 | +4h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.22 | 4.38 % | 2.851 % [0 – 7.07] | 12.8 % | +9.949 % | 3σ | 🚨 Diverged |
| 10/21/26 09:00:03 | 10/21 08:05:41 | +1h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.02 | 1.535 % | 1.243 % [0 – 6.49] | 11.5 % | +10.257 % | 2.49σ | ~ Minor Drift |
| 10/19/26 17:10:03 | 10/19 13:10:03 | +4h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.01 | 0.875 % | 1.122 % [0 – 3.7] | 5.4 % | +4.278 % | 2.11σ | ~ Minor Drift |