| Timestamp | Severity | Type | Value | Baseline | % vs Base | Rate of Change | Z-Value | Z-Rate | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/02/26 00:00:03 | WARNING | Forecast Divergence | 23.77 % | 34.885 | -31.86% | 0 | 3.39 | - |
99.5%
|
|
| Timestamp | Severity | Type | Value | Baseline | % vs Base | Rate of Change | Z-Value | Z-Rate | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/02/26 00:00:03 | WARNING | Forecast Divergence | 23.77 % | 34.885 | -31.86% | 0 | 3.39 | - |
99.5%
|
| 10/22/26 00:00:03 | CRITICAL | Forecast Divergence (Critical) | 27.91 % | 22.854 | +22.12% | 0.005 | 6.4 | - |
99.5%
|
🎬 Walk-Forward Forecast Cone Replay
Quick Compare:
|
Speed:
Trail:
⏱ Playhead Frame
—
📍 Fitted Value & Velocity
—
📐 Active Model & Fit
—
🔮 +1h Cone Forecast vs Actual
—
🔭 +4h Cone Forecast vs Actual
—
🎯 Running Replay Scorecard
—
🔮 Next Short Forecast (+6h)
23.519 %
(-0.25)
Target: 06:00 · 80% Cone: [20.61 – 26.43]
🔭 Next Long Forecast (+24h)
23.229 %
(-0.54)
Target: 00:00 · 80% Cone: [19.04 – 27.42]
🎯 Out-of-Sample Accuracy
88%
(25 checked)
MAE: 1.065 % · RMSE: 2.681 % · Fit R²=0.96
🚨 Historical Failures & Drift
3 diverged
⚡ 3 anom
0 minor drift · Max Z-Error: 6.4σ
|
| Target Time | Predicted At | Horizon | Model & R² | Start Value | Predicted (80% Cone) | Actual Reading | Error (Actual − Pred) | Z-Error | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/04/26 00:00:04 (in 20.1h) | 11/03 00:03:20 | +24h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.88 | 23.77 % | 23.229 % [19.04 – 27.42] | ⏳ Waiting | - | - | ⏳ Pending |
| 11/03/26 06:00:04 (in 2.1h) | 11/03 00:03:20 | +6h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.88 | 23.77 % | 23.519 % [20.61 – 26.43] | ⏳ Waiting | - | - | ⏳ Pending |
| 11/03/26 00:00:03 | 11/02 00:03:18 | +24h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.87 | 27.336 % | 23.844 % [19.32 – 28.37] | 23.93 % | +0.086 % | 0.01σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 11/02/26 06:00:03 | 11/02 00:03:18 | +6h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.87 | 27.336 % | 25.717 % [22.57 – 28.86] | No reading | - | - | No Reading |
| 11/02/26 00:00:04 | 11/01 00:03:03 | +24h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.97 | 34.88 % | 34.885 % [32.51 – 37.26] | 23.77 % | -11.115 % | 3.39σ | ⚡ Anomaly Logged |
|
| Target Time | Predicted At | Horizon | Model & R² | Start Value | Predicted (80% Cone) | Actual Reading | Error (Actual − Pred) | Z-Error | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/04/26 00:00:04 (in 20.1h) | 11/03 00:03:20 | +24h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.88 | 23.77 % | 23.229 % [19.04 – 27.42] | ⏳ Waiting | - | - | ⏳ Pending |
| 11/03/26 06:00:04 (in 2.1h) | 11/03 00:03:20 | +6h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.88 | 23.77 % | 23.519 % [20.61 – 26.43] | ⏳ Waiting | - | - | ⏳ Pending |
| 11/03/26 00:00:03 | 11/02 00:03:18 | +24h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.87 | 27.336 % | 23.844 % [19.32 – 28.37] | 23.93 % | +0.086 % | 0.01σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 11/02/26 06:00:03 | 11/02 00:03:18 | +6h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.87 | 27.336 % | 25.717 % [22.57 – 28.86] | No reading | - | - | No Reading |
| 11/02/26 00:00:04 | 11/01 00:03:03 | +24h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.97 | 34.88 % | 34.885 % [32.51 – 37.26] | 23.77 % | -11.115 % | 3.39σ | ⚡ Anomaly Logged |
| 11/01/26 06:00:04 | 11/01 00:03:03 | +6h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.97 | 34.88 % | 34.882 % [33.23 – 36.54] | No reading | - | - | No Reading |
| 11/01/26 00:00:02 | 10/31 00:02:34 | +24h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.97 | 34.87 % | 34.891 % [32.51 – 37.28] | 34.88 % | -0.011 % | 0σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/31/26 06:00:02 | 10/31 00:02:34 | +6h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.97 | 34.87 % | 34.88 % [33.22 – 36.54] | No reading | - | - | No Reading |
| 10/31/26 00:00:04 | 10/30 00:02:04 | +24h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.97 | 34.824 % | 34.837 % [32.45 – 37.23] | 34.88 % | +0.043 % | 0.01σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/31/26 00:00:04 | 10/30 06:17:03 | +24h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.97 | 34.824 % | 34.837 % [32.45 – 37.23] | 34.88 % | +0.043 % | 0.01σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/30/26 06:00:04 | 10/30 00:02:04 | +6h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.97 | 34.824 % | 34.83 % [33.17 – 36.49] | No reading | - | - | No Reading |
| 10/30/26 00:00:03 | 10/29 00:01:33 | +24h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.98 | 34.782 % | 34.791 % [32.4 – 37.18] | 34.82 % | +0.029 % | 0.01σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/30/26 00:00:03 | 10/29 06:20:02 | +24h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.98 | 34.782 % | 34.791 % [32.4 – 37.18] | 34.82 % | +0.029 % | 0.01σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/29/26 06:00:03 | 10/29 00:01:33 | +6h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.98 | 34.782 % | 34.786 % [33.12 – 36.45] | No reading | - | - | No Reading |
| 10/29/26 00:00:03 | 10/28 00:01:03 | +24h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.98 | 34.737 % | 34.744 % [32.35 – 37.14] | 34.79 % | +0.046 % | 0.01σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/29/26 00:00:03 | 10/28 01:47:24 | +24h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.98 | 34.737 % | 34.744 % [32.35 – 37.14] | 34.79 % | +0.046 % | 0.01σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/29/26 00:00:03 | 10/28 11:46:02 | +24h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.98 | 34.737 % | 34.744 % [32.35 – 37.14] | 34.79 % | +0.046 % | 0.01σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/29/26 00:00:03 | 10/28 16:49:28 | +24h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.98 | 34.737 % | 34.744 % [32.35 – 37.14] | 34.79 % | +0.046 % | 0.01σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/29/26 00:00:03 | 10/28 17:30:19 | +24h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.98 | 34.737 % | 34.744 % [32.35 – 37.14] | 34.79 % | +0.046 % | 0.01σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/29/26 00:00:03 | 10/28 21:08:37 | +24h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.98 | 34.737 % | 34.744 % [32.35 – 37.14] | 34.79 % | +0.046 % | 0.01σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/29/26 00:00:03 | 10/28 21:49:51 | +24h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.98 | 34.737 % | 34.744 % [32.35 – 37.14] | 34.79 % | +0.046 % | 0.01σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/28/26 06:00:03 | 10/28 00:01:03 | +6h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.98 | 34.737 % | 34.74 % [33.08 – 36.41] | No reading | - | - | No Reading |
| 10/28/26 06:00:03 | 10/28 01:47:24 | +6h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.98 | 34.737 % | 34.74 % [33.08 – 36.41] | No reading | - | - | No Reading |
| 10/28/26 00:00:02 | 10/27 00:00:36 | +24h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.97 | 34.814 % | 34.857 % [32.47 – 37.25] | 34.77 % | -0.087 % | 0.03σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/28/26 00:00:02 | 10/27 16:33:27 | +24h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.97 | 34.814 % | 34.857 % [32.47 – 37.25] | 34.77 % | -0.087 % | 0.03σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/27/26 07:40:04 | 10/26 07:46:04 | +24h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.97 | 35.372 % | 35.441 % [33 – 37.89] | No reading | - | - | No Reading |
| 10/27/26 07:40:04 | 10/26 10:23:39 | +24h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.97 | 35.372 % | 35.441 % [33 – 37.89] | No reading | - | - | No Reading |
| 10/27/26 06:00:02 | 10/27 00:00:36 | +6h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.97 | 34.814 % | 34.834 % [33.17 – 36.5] | No reading | - | - | No Reading |
| 10/26/26 13:40:04 | 10/26 07:46:04 | +6h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.97 | 35.372 % | 35.404 % [33.7 – 37.11] | No reading | - | - | No Reading |
| 10/26/26 13:40:04 | 10/26 10:23:39 | +6h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.97 | 35.372 % | 35.404 % [33.7 – 37.11] | No reading | - | - | No Reading |
| 10/26/26 00:00:02 | 10/25 00:09:35 | +24h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.96 | 36.253 % | 36.627 % [34.08 – 39.18] | No reading | - | - | No Reading |
| 10/26/26 00:00:02 | 10/25 01:11:05 | +24h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.96 | 36.253 % | 36.627 % [34.08 – 39.18] | No reading | - | - | No Reading |
| 10/26/26 00:00:02 | 10/25 02:09:59 | +24h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.96 | 36.253 % | 36.627 % [34.08 – 39.18] | No reading | - | - | No Reading |
| 10/25/26 06:00:02 | 10/25 00:09:35 | +6h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.96 | 36.253 % | 36.427 % [34.65 – 38.2] | No reading | - | - | No Reading |
| 10/25/26 06:00:02 | 10/25 01:11:05 | +6h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.96 | 36.253 % | 36.427 % [34.65 – 38.2] | No reading | - | - | No Reading |
| 10/25/26 06:00:02 | 10/25 02:09:59 | +6h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.96 | 36.253 % | 36.427 % [34.65 – 38.2] | No reading | - | - | No Reading |
| 10/25/26 00:00:03 | 10/24 00:09:09 | +24h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.96 | 35.607 % | 36.529 % [34.38 – 38.67] | 34.84 % | -1.689 % | 0.57σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/24/26 06:00:03 | 10/24 00:09:09 | +6h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.96 | 35.607 % | 36.035 % [34.54 – 37.53] | No reading | - | - | No Reading |
| 10/24/26 00:00:03 | 10/23 00:21:22 | +24h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.94 | 32.039 % | 34.051 % [32.01 – 36.09] | 34.78 % | +0.729 % | 0.26σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/24/26 00:00:03 | 10/23 02:09:52 | +24h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.94 | 32.039 % | 34.051 % [32.01 – 36.09] | 34.78 % | +0.729 % | 0.26σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/24/26 00:00:03 | 10/23 03:31:48 | +24h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.94 | 32.039 % | 34.051 % [32.01 – 36.09] | 34.78 % | +0.729 % | 0.26σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/24/26 00:00:03 | 10/23 06:29:03 | +24h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.94 | 32.039 % | 34.051 % [32.01 – 36.09] | 34.78 % | +0.729 % | 0.26σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/23/26 06:00:03 | 10/23 00:21:22 | +6h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.94 | 32.039 % | 32.972 % [31.55 – 34.39] | No reading | - | - | No Reading |
| 10/23/26 06:00:03 | 10/23 02:09:52 | +6h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.94 | 32.039 % | 32.972 % [31.55 – 34.39] | No reading | - | - | No Reading |
| 10/23/26 06:00:03 | 10/23 03:31:48 | +6h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.94 | 32.039 % | 32.972 % [31.55 – 34.39] | No reading | - | - | No Reading |
| 10/22/26 00:00:03 | 10/21 00:04:32 | +24h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.96 | 22.805 % | 22.854 % [22.67 – 23.04] | 27.91 % | +5.056 % | 6.4σ | ⚡ Anomaly Logged |
| 10/22/26 00:00:03 | 10/21 10:55:45 | +24h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.96 | 22.805 % | 22.854 % [22.67 – 23.04] | 27.91 % | +5.056 % | 6.4σ | ⚡ Anomaly Logged |
| 10/21/26 06:00:03 | 10/21 00:04:32 | +6h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.96 | 22.805 % | 22.828 % [22.7 – 22.96] | No reading | - | - | No Reading |
| 10/21/26 06:00:03 | 10/21 10:55:45 | +6h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.96 | 22.805 % | 22.828 % [22.7 – 22.96] | No reading | - | - | No Reading |
| 10/21/26 00:00:03 | 10/20 00:06:13 | +24h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.95 | 22.746 % | 22.785 % [22.6 – 22.97] | 22.76 % | -0.025 % | 0.03σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/20/26 06:00:03 | 10/20 00:06:13 | +6h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.95 | 22.746 % | 22.764 % [22.63 – 22.9] | No reading | - | - | No Reading |
| 10/20/26 00:00:02 | 10/19 20:33:19 | +24h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.94 | 22.594 % | 22.692 % [22.53 – 22.85] | 22.66 % | -0.032 % | 0.04σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/19/26 06:00:02 | 10/19 20:33:19 | +6h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.94 | 22.594 % | 22.64 % [22.53 – 22.75] | No reading | - | - | No Reading |
| Target Time | Predicted At | Horizon | Model & R² | Start Value | Predicted (80% Cone) | Actual Reading | Error (Actual − Pred) | Z-Error | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/02/26 00:00:04 | 11/01 00:03:03 | +24h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.97 | 34.88 % | 34.885 % [32.51 – 37.26] | 23.77 % | -11.115 % | 3.39σ | ⚡ Anomaly Logged |
| 10/22/26 00:00:03 | 10/21 00:04:32 | +24h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.96 | 22.805 % | 22.854 % [22.67 – 23.04] | 27.91 % | +5.056 % | 6.4σ | ⚡ Anomaly Logged |
| 10/22/26 00:00:03 | 10/21 10:55:45 | +24h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.96 | 22.805 % | 22.854 % [22.67 – 23.04] | 27.91 % | +5.056 % | 6.4σ | ⚡ Anomaly Logged |