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data

/ root / Laker / Euler / Disks / euler /mnt/dvr | Dist: 16.96 - 19 (%)

/ root / Laker / Euler / Disks / euler /mnt/dvr

📈 Forecast Chart All Sensors ↗

🔮 Next Short Forecast (+6h)

17.57 % (-0.26)

Target: 06:00 · 80% Cone: [16.57 – 18.57]

🔭 Next Long Forecast (+24h)

17.268 % (-0.56)

Target: 00:00 · 80% Cone: [15.84 – 18.7]

🎯 Out-of-Sample Accuracy

100% (20 checked)

MAE: 0.709 % · RMSE: 0.865 % · Fit R²=0.91

🚨 Historical Failures & Drift

0 diverged

0 minor drift · Max Z-Error: 1.57σ

Target Time	Predicted At	Horizon	Model & R²	Start Value	Predicted (80% Cone)	Actual Reading	Error (Actual − Pred)	Z-Error	Outcome
11/04/26 00:00:04 (in 19.5h)	11/03 00:03:20	+24h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.79	17.832 %	17.268 % [15.84 – 18.7]	⏳ Waiting	-	-	⏳ Pending
11/03/26 06:00:04 (in 1.5h)	11/03 00:03:20	+6h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.79	17.832 %	17.57 % [16.57 – 18.57]	⏳ Waiting	-	-	⏳ Pending
11/03/26 00:00:03	11/02 00:03:34	+24h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.91	18.795 %	19.042 % [18.08 – 20]	16.96 %	-2.082 %	1.57σ	✓ Accurate
11/02/26 06:00:03	11/02 00:03:34	+6h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.91	18.795 %	18.909 % [18.24 – 19.58]	No reading	-	-	No Reading
11/02/26 00:00:04	11/01 00:03:03	+24h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.88	17.939 %	18.344 % [17.38 – 19.31]	19 %	+0.656 %	0.49σ	✓ Accurate

Target Time	Predicted At	Horizon	Model & R²	Start Value	Predicted (80% Cone)	Actual Reading	Error (Actual − Pred)	Z-Error	Outcome
11/04/26 00:00:04 (in 19.5h)	11/03 00:03:20	+24h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.79	17.832 %	17.268 % [15.84 – 18.7]	⏳ Waiting	-	-	⏳ Pending
11/03/26 06:00:04 (in 1.5h)	11/03 00:03:20	+6h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.79	17.832 %	17.57 % [16.57 – 18.57]	⏳ Waiting	-	-	⏳ Pending
11/03/26 00:00:03	11/02 00:03:34	+24h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.91	18.795 %	19.042 % [18.08 – 20]	16.96 %	-2.082 %	1.57σ	✓ Accurate
11/02/26 06:00:03	11/02 00:03:34	+6h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.91	18.795 %	18.909 % [18.24 – 19.58]	No reading	-	-	No Reading
11/02/26 00:00:04	11/01 00:03:03	+24h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.88	17.939 %	18.344 % [17.38 – 19.31]	19 %	+0.656 %	0.49σ	✓ Accurate
11/01/26 06:00:04	11/01 00:03:03	+6h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.88	17.939 %	18.127 % [17.45 – 18.8]	No reading	-	-	No Reading
11/01/26 00:00:02	10/31 00:02:34	+24h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.90	17.297 %	17.1 % [16.26 – 17.94]	18.37 %	+1.27 %	1.09σ	✓ Accurate
11/01/26 00:00:02	10/31 12:13:56	+24h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.90	17.297 %	17.1 % [16.26 – 17.94]	18.37 %	+1.27 %	1.09σ	✓ Accurate
11/01/26 00:00:02	10/31 18:45:25	+24h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.90	17.297 %	17.1 % [16.26 – 17.94]	18.37 %	+1.27 %	1.09σ	✓ Accurate
10/31/26 06:00:02	10/31 00:02:34	+6h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.90	17.297 %	17.205 % [16.62 – 17.79]	No reading	-	-	No Reading
10/31/26 00:00:04	10/30 00:02:04	+24h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.93	17.7 %	17.828 % [17.05 – 18.61]	17 %	-0.828 %	0.77σ	✓ Accurate
10/31/26 00:00:04	10/30 01:33:59	+24h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.93	17.7 %	17.828 % [17.05 – 18.61]	17 %	-0.828 %	0.77σ	✓ Accurate
10/30/26 06:00:04	10/30 00:02:04	+6h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.93	17.7 %	17.759 % [17.22 – 18.3]	No reading	-	-	No Reading
10/30/26 06:00:04	10/30 01:33:59	+6h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.93	17.7 %	17.759 % [17.22 – 18.3]	No reading	-	-	No Reading
10/30/26 00:00:04	10/29 00:01:33	+24h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.95	17.48 %	17.633 % [16.86 – 18.4]	17.7 %	+0.067 %	0.06σ	✓ Accurate
10/30/26 00:00:04	10/29 18:33:02	+24h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.95	17.48 %	17.633 % [16.86 – 18.4]	17.7 %	+0.067 %	0.06σ	✓ Accurate
10/29/26 06:00:04	10/29 00:01:33	+6h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.95	17.48 %	17.551 % [17.02 – 18.09]	No reading	-	-	No Reading
10/29/26 00:00:03	10/28 00:01:03	+24h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.96	17.056 %	17.296 % [16.52 – 18.08]	17.48 %	+0.184 %	0.17σ	✓ Accurate
10/28/26 06:00:03	10/28 00:01:03	+6h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.96	17.056 %	17.167 % [16.63 – 17.71]	No reading	-	-	No Reading
10/28/26 00:00:02	10/27 00:00:36	+24h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.96	16.247 %	16.834 % [16.02 – 17.65]	17.25 %	+0.416 %	0.37σ	✓ Accurate
10/28/26 00:00:02	10/27 10:51:29	+24h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.96	16.247 %	16.834 % [16.02 – 17.65]	17.25 %	+0.416 %	0.37σ	✓ Accurate
10/27/26 07:40:04	10/26 07:46:04	+24h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.96	15.771 %	15.12 % [14.27 – 15.97]	No reading	-	-	No Reading
10/27/26 07:40:04	10/26 12:05:36	+24h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.96	15.771 %	15.12 % [14.27 – 15.97]	No reading	-	-	No Reading
10/27/26 06:00:02	10/27 00:00:36	+6h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.96	16.247 %	16.519 % [15.95 – 17.09]	No reading	-	-	No Reading
10/26/26 13:40:04	10/26 07:46:04	+6h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.96	15.771 %	15.27 % [14.68 – 15.86]	No reading	-	-	No Reading
10/26/26 13:40:04	10/26 12:05:36	+6h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.96	15.771 %	15.27 % [14.68 – 15.86]	No reading	-	-	No Reading
10/26/26 00:00:02	10/25 00:09:35	+24h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.97	15.426 %	15.617 % [14.95 – 16.29]	No reading	-	-	No Reading
10/26/26 00:00:02	10/25 03:14:46	+24h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.97	15.426 %	15.617 % [14.95 – 16.29]	No reading	-	-	No Reading
10/26/26 00:00:02	10/25 12:24:05	+24h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.97	15.426 %	15.617 % [14.95 – 16.29]	No reading	-	-	No Reading
10/25/26 06:00:02	10/25 00:09:35	+6h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.97	15.426 %	15.515 % [15.05 – 15.98]	No reading	-	-	No Reading
10/25/26 06:00:02	10/25 03:14:46	+6h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.97	15.426 %	15.515 % [15.05 – 15.98]	No reading	-	-	No Reading
10/25/26 00:00:03	10/24 00:09:09	+24h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.98	14.762 %	14.758 % [14.15 – 15.37]	15.79 %	+1.032 %	1.23σ	✓ Accurate
10/24/26 06:00:03	10/24 00:09:09	+6h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.98	14.762 %	14.76 % [14.34 – 15.18]	No reading	-	-	No Reading
10/24/26 00:00:03	10/23 01:37:10	+24h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.95	14.774 %	14.556 % [13.74 – 15.38]	15.12 %	+0.564 %	0.5σ	✓ Accurate
10/24/26 00:00:03	10/23 07:27:55	+24h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.95	14.774 %	14.556 % [13.74 – 15.38]	15.12 %	+0.564 %	0.5σ	✓ Accurate
10/24/26 00:00:03	10/23 20:17:18	+24h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.95	14.774 %	14.556 % [13.74 – 15.38]	15.12 %	+0.564 %	0.5σ	✓ Accurate
10/23/26 06:00:03	10/23 01:37:10	+6h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.95	14.774 %	14.673 % [14.1 – 15.25]	No reading	-	-	No Reading
10/23/26 00:00:03	10/22 07:01:36	+24h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.93	15.503 %	15.044 % [14.26 – 15.83]	14.89 %	-0.154 %	0.14σ	✓ Accurate
10/22/26 06:00:03	10/22 07:01:36	+6h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.93	15.503 %	15.29 % [14.74 – 15.84]	No reading	-	-	No Reading
10/22/26 00:00:03	10/21 00:04:32	+24h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.87	16.578 %	16.357 % [15.58 – 17.14]	15.27 %	-1.087 %	1.01σ	✓ Accurate
10/21/26 06:00:03	10/21 00:04:32	+6h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.87	16.578 %	16.475 % [15.93 – 17.02]	No reading	-	-	No Reading
10/21/26 00:00:03	10/20 00:06:13	+24h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.81	17.147 %	16.875 % [16.08 – 17.67]	16.54 %	-0.335 %	0.31σ	✓ Accurate
10/20/26 06:00:03	10/20 00:06:13	+6h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.81	17.147 %	17.021 % [16.47 – 17.57]	No reading	-	-	No Reading
10/20/26 00:00:02	10/19 20:33:19	+24h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.66	17.691 %	17.59 % [16.7 – 18.48]	17.07 %	-0.52 %	0.42σ	✓ Accurate
10/19/26 06:00:02	10/19 20:33:19	+6h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.66	17.691 %	17.644 % [17.02 – 18.27]	No reading	-	-	No Reading

✓ Zero forecast failures or divergences recorded for this sensor!

All 20 evaluated predictions stayed within the expected confidence cone.