No anomalies recorded in this time window.
No anomalies recorded for this sensor.
🎬 Walk-Forward Forecast Cone Replay
Quick Compare:
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Speed:
Trail:
⏱ Playhead Frame
—
📍 Fitted Value & Velocity
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📐 Active Model & Fit
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🔮 +1h Cone Forecast vs Actual
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🔭 +4h Cone Forecast vs Actual
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🎯 Running Replay Scorecard
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🔮 Next Short Forecast (+6h)
8.15 %/hr
(+0)
Target: 06:00 · 80% Cone: [8.09 – 8.21]
🔭 Next Long Forecast (+24h)
8.15 %/hr
(+0)
Target: 00:00 · 80% Cone: [8.06 – 8.24]
🎯 Out-of-Sample Accuracy
100%
(20 checked)
MAE: 0.035 %/hr · RMSE: 0.082 %/hr · Fit R²=0.90
🚨 Historical Failures & Drift
0 diverged
0 minor drift · Max Z-Error: 0.31σ
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| Target Time | Predicted At | Horizon | Model & R² | Start Value | Predicted (80% Cone) | Actual Reading | Error (Actual − Pred) | Z-Error | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/04/26 00:00:04 (in 19.6h) | 11/03 00:03:20 | +24h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.69 | 8.15 %/hr | 8.15 %/hr [8.06 – 8.24] | ⏳ Waiting | - | - | ⏳ Pending |
| 11/03/26 06:00:04 (in 1.6h) | 11/03 00:03:20 | +6h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.69 | 8.15 %/hr | 8.15 %/hr [8.09 – 8.21] | ⏳ Waiting | - | - | ⏳ Pending |
| 11/03/26 00:00:03 | 11/02 00:03:34 | +24h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.86 | 8.15 %/hr | 8.15 %/hr [8.07 – 8.23] | 8.15 %/hr | 0 %/hr | 0σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 11/02/26 06:00:03 | 11/02 00:03:34 | +6h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.86 | 8.15 %/hr | 8.15 %/hr [8.09 – 8.21] | No reading | - | - | No Reading |
| 11/02/26 00:00:04 | 11/01 00:03:03 | +24h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.88 | 8.15 %/hr | 8.15 %/hr [8.06 – 8.24] | 8.15 %/hr | 0 %/hr | 0σ | ✓ Accurate |
|
| Target Time | Predicted At | Horizon | Model & R² | Start Value | Predicted (80% Cone) | Actual Reading | Error (Actual − Pred) | Z-Error | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/04/26 00:00:04 (in 19.6h) | 11/03 00:03:20 | +24h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.69 | 8.15 %/hr | 8.15 %/hr [8.06 – 8.24] | ⏳ Waiting | - | - | ⏳ Pending |
| 11/03/26 06:00:04 (in 1.6h) | 11/03 00:03:20 | +6h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.69 | 8.15 %/hr | 8.15 %/hr [8.09 – 8.21] | ⏳ Waiting | - | - | ⏳ Pending |
| 11/03/26 00:00:03 | 11/02 00:03:34 | +24h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.86 | 8.15 %/hr | 8.15 %/hr [8.07 – 8.23] | 8.15 %/hr | 0 %/hr | 0σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 11/02/26 06:00:03 | 11/02 00:03:34 | +6h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.86 | 8.15 %/hr | 8.15 %/hr [8.09 – 8.21] | No reading | - | - | No Reading |
| 11/02/26 00:00:04 | 11/01 00:03:03 | +24h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.88 | 8.15 %/hr | 8.15 %/hr [8.06 – 8.24] | 8.15 %/hr | 0 %/hr | 0σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 11/01/26 06:00:04 | 11/01 00:03:03 | +6h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.88 | 8.15 %/hr | 8.15 %/hr [8.09 – 8.21] | No reading | - | - | No Reading |
| 11/01/26 00:00:02 | 10/31 00:02:34 | +24h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.90 | 8.15 %/hr | 8.15 %/hr [8.06 – 8.24] | 8.15 %/hr | 0 %/hr | 0σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/31/26 06:00:02 | 10/31 00:02:34 | +6h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.90 | 8.15 %/hr | 8.15 %/hr [8.09 – 8.22] | No reading | - | - | No Reading |
| 10/31/26 00:00:04 | 10/30 00:02:04 | +24h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.91 | 8.15 %/hr | 8.15 %/hr [8.06 – 8.24] | 8.15 %/hr | 0 %/hr | 0σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/30/26 06:00:04 | 10/30 00:02:04 | +6h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.91 | 8.15 %/hr | 8.15 %/hr [8.09 – 8.22] | No reading | - | - | No Reading |
| 10/30/26 00:00:04 | 10/29 00:01:33 | +24h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.89 | 8.15 %/hr | 8.15 %/hr [8.01 – 8.3] | 8.15 %/hr | 0 %/hr | 0σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/30/26 00:00:04 | 10/29 15:52:38 | +24h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.89 | 8.15 %/hr | 8.15 %/hr [8.01 – 8.3] | 8.15 %/hr | 0 %/hr | 0σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/30/26 00:00:04 | 10/29 20:44:08 | +24h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.89 | 8.15 %/hr | 8.15 %/hr [8.01 – 8.3] | 8.15 %/hr | 0 %/hr | 0σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/29/26 06:00:04 | 10/29 00:01:33 | +6h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.89 | 8.15 %/hr | 8.15 %/hr [8.05 – 8.25] | No reading | - | - | No Reading |
| 10/29/26 00:00:03 | 10/28 00:01:03 | +24h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.93 | 8.15 %/hr | 8.15 %/hr [8.01 – 8.29] | 8.15 %/hr | 0 %/hr | 0σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/28/26 06:00:03 | 10/28 00:01:03 | +6h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.93 | 8.15 %/hr | 8.15 %/hr [8.05 – 8.25] | No reading | - | - | No Reading |
| 10/28/26 00:00:02 | 10/27 00:00:36 | +24h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.93 | 8.15 %/hr | 8.15 %/hr [8 – 8.3] | 8.15 %/hr | 0 %/hr | 0σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/28/26 00:00:02 | 10/27 13:22:49 | +24h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.93 | 8.15 %/hr | 8.15 %/hr [8 – 8.3] | 8.15 %/hr | 0 %/hr | 0σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/28/26 00:00:02 | 10/27 20:10:30 | +24h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.93 | 8.15 %/hr | 8.15 %/hr [8 – 8.3] | 8.15 %/hr | 0 %/hr | 0σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/28/26 00:00:02 | 10/27 20:59:36 | +24h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.93 | 8.15 %/hr | 8.15 %/hr [8 – 8.3] | 8.15 %/hr | 0 %/hr | 0σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/27/26 07:40:04 | 10/26 07:46:04 | +24h | Diurnal + Trend R²=0.93 | 8.12 %/hr | 8.183 %/hr [8.03 – 8.34] | No reading | - | - | No Reading |
| 10/27/26 06:00:02 | 10/27 00:00:36 | +6h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.93 | 8.15 %/hr | 8.15 %/hr [8.05 – 8.25] | No reading | - | - | No Reading |
| 10/26/26 13:40:04 | 10/26 07:46:04 | +6h | Diurnal + Trend R²=0.93 | 8.12 %/hr | 8.175 %/hr [8.07 – 8.28] | No reading | - | - | No Reading |
| 10/26/26 00:00:02 | 10/25 00:09:35 | +24h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.94 | 8.17 %/hr | 8.173 %/hr [8.03 – 8.32] | No reading | - | - | No Reading |
| 10/25/26 06:00:02 | 10/25 00:09:35 | +6h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.94 | 8.17 %/hr | 8.171 %/hr [8.07 – 8.28] | No reading | - | - | No Reading |
| 10/25/26 00:00:03 | 10/24 00:09:09 | +24h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.93 | 8.192 %/hr | 8.202 %/hr [8.05 – 8.35] | 8.15 %/hr | -0.052 %/hr | 0.07σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/24/26 06:00:03 | 10/24 00:09:09 | +6h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.93 | 8.192 %/hr | 8.197 %/hr [8.09 – 8.3] | No reading | - | - | No Reading |
| 10/24/26 00:00:03 | 10/23 05:53:56 | +24h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.93 | 8.168 %/hr | 8.181 %/hr [8.04 – 8.32] | 8.15 %/hr | -0.031 %/hr | 0.04σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/23/26 06:00:03 | 10/23 05:53:56 | +6h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.93 | 8.168 %/hr | 8.174 %/hr [8.08 – 8.27] | No reading | - | - | No Reading |
| 10/23/26 00:00:03 | 10/22 14:05:36 | +24h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.91 | 8.07 %/hr | 8.149 %/hr [8 – 8.3] | 8.15 %/hr | +0.001 %/hr | 0σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/22/26 06:00:03 | 10/22 14:05:36 | +6h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.91 | 8.07 %/hr | 8.107 %/hr [8 – 8.21] | No reading | - | - | No Reading |
| 10/22/26 00:00:03 | 10/21 00:19:33 | +24h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.92 | 7.901 %/hr | 7.901 %/hr [7.78 – 8.02] | 8.15 %/hr | +0.249 %/hr | 0.31σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/22/26 00:00:03 | 10/21 14:15:05 | +24h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.92 | 7.901 %/hr | 7.901 %/hr [7.78 – 8.02] | 8.15 %/hr | +0.249 %/hr | 0.31σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/21/26 06:00:03 | 10/21 00:19:33 | +6h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.92 | 7.901 %/hr | 7.901 %/hr [7.82 – 7.98] | No reading | - | - | No Reading |
| 10/21/26 06:00:03 | 10/21 14:15:05 | +6h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.92 | 7.901 %/hr | 7.901 %/hr [7.82 – 7.98] | No reading | - | - | No Reading |
| 10/21/26 00:00:03 | 10/20 00:06:13 | +24h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.91 | 7.925 %/hr | 7.929 %/hr [7.81 – 8.05] | 7.9 %/hr | -0.029 %/hr | 0.04σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/21/26 00:00:03 | 10/20 23:55:17 | +24h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.91 | 7.925 %/hr | 7.929 %/hr [7.81 – 8.05] | 7.9 %/hr | -0.029 %/hr | 0.04σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/20/26 06:00:03 | 10/20 00:06:13 | +6h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.91 | 7.925 %/hr | 7.927 %/hr [7.84 – 8.01] | No reading | - | - | No Reading |
| 10/20/26 06:00:03 | 10/20 23:55:17 | +6h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.91 | 7.925 %/hr | 7.927 %/hr [7.84 – 8.01] | No reading | - | - | No Reading |
| 10/20/26 00:00:02 | 10/19 20:33:19 | +24h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.90 | 7.952 %/hr | 7.964 %/hr [7.84 – 8.09] | 7.9 %/hr | -0.064 %/hr | 0.08σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/19/26 06:00:02 | 10/19 20:33:19 | +6h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.90 | 7.952 %/hr | 7.958 %/hr [7.87 – 8.05] | No reading | - | - | No Reading |
✓ Zero forecast failures or divergences recorded for this sensor!
All 20 evaluated predictions stayed within the expected confidence cone.