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/ root / Lilac / Patio / Patio Heat Index | Prevailing: 74.8° (ENE) | Steadiness: 99.4%

/ root / Lilac / Patio / Patio Heat Index

Timestamp	Severity	Type	Value	Baseline	% vs Base	Rate of Change	Z-Value	Z-Rate	Confidence
11/02/26 10:45:27	CRITICAL	Extreme Rate Spike	81.8 °F	73.61	+11.1%	0.01	2.01	7.81	50.2%

Timestamp	Severity	Type	Value	Baseline	% vs Base	Rate of Change	Z-Value	Z-Rate	Confidence
11/02/26 10:45:27	CRITICAL	Extreme Rate Spike	81.8 °F	73.61	+11.1%	0.01	2.01	7.81	50.2%
11/01/26 01:22:22	CRITICAL	Extreme Rate Spike	66.44 °F	70.05	-5.1%	-0.037	-1.11	-18.07	96.5%
11/01/26 01:17:19	CRITICAL	Extreme Rate Spike	67.02 °F	70.04	-4.3%	-0.019	-0.93	-11.48	62.6%
11/01/26 01:02:11	CRITICAL	Extreme Rate Spike	66.63 °F	70.03	-4.9%	-0.018	-1.04	-19.02	100%
10/31/26 16:42:06	WARNING	Rate Spike	76.78 °F	70	+9.7%	0.005	2.21	5.75	41%
10/19/26 10:37:56	WARNING	Forecast Divergence	63.12 °F	58.127	+8.59%	2.775	4.43	-	99.5%
10/18/26 22:41:15	WARNING	Forecast Divergence	62.78 °F	60.002	+4.63%	-2.077	2.8	-	99.5%
10/18/26 17:43:34	WARNING	Forecast Divergence	72.75 °F	68.152	+6.75%	2.949	3.96	-	99.5%
10/17/26 16:55:05	WARNING	Rate Spike	67.99 °F	55.56	+22.4%	0.009	2.09	5.8	40.6%
10/15/26 16:38:19	WARNING	Rate Spike	92.17 °F	89.77	+2.7%	-0.014	0.33	-5.76	30.6%
10/12/26 16:29:14	WARNING	Rate Spike	97.03 °F	82.75	+17.3%	0.011	1.81	5.14	35.8%
10/05/26 11:40:37	WARNING	Rate Spike	80.8 °F	73.72	+9.6%	0.007	2.38	6.74	46.9%
10/04/26 17:10:37	WARNING	Value Deviation	81.32 °F	72.61	+12%	0.002	5.35	-	59.4%
10/04/26 17:05:34	CRITICAL	Extreme Rate Spike	80.84 °F	72.59	+11.4%	0.007	5.3	12.44	91.6%
10/02/26 12:32:04	CRITICAL	Extreme Rate Spike	80.96 °F	76.61	+5.7%	0.009	2.63	8.59	57.6%
10/01/26 04:44:32	CRITICAL	Extreme Rate Spike	80.26 °F	90.56	-11.4%	-0.023	-2.29	-12.04	72.9%
09/30/26 17:13:19	WARNING	Rate Spike	100.52 °F	91.36	+10%	0.013	1.86	6.65	43.6%
09/27/26 18:59:53	WARNING	Rate Spike	86.97 °F	90.12	-3.5%	-0.015	-0.34	-6.97	36.7%
09/23/26 18:47:03	WARNING	Rate Spike	96.6 °F	92.62	+4.3%	-0.015	0.44	-6.47	34.8%
09/21/26 18:55:37	CRITICAL	Extreme Rate Spike	95.49 °F	91.29	+4.6%	-0.018	0.45	-7.6	40.5%
09/20/26 14:20:04	WARNING	Rate Spike	108.74 °F	94.02	+15.7%	0.015	1.76	5.93	39.4%
09/10/26 15:33:00	WARNING	Rate Spike	103.75 °F	99.83	+3.9%	-0.016	0.41	-6.06	32.6%
09/06/26 11:42:26	WARNING	Rate Spike	106.19 °F	99.41	+6.8%	0.009	0.91	3.55	32.9%
09/03/26 15:09:37	WARNING	Rate Spike	113.33 °F	97.52	+16.2%	0.01	1.76	4.03	43.4%
09/02/26 17:47:30	WARNING	Rate Spike	104.72 °F	98.75	+6%	-0.008	0.73	-3.6	31.9%
09/01/26 16:02:46	WARNING	Rate Spike	109.11 °F	96.32	+13.3%	-0.01	1.32	-4.19	40.9%
08/31/26 17:04:59	WARNING	Rate Spike	104.19 °F	96.13	+8.4%	-0.009	1	-3.82	35.6%
08/26/26 18:05:27	CRITICAL	Extreme Rate Spike	101.78 °F	95.62	+6.4%	-0.016	0.79	-7.47	59.9%
08/26/26 17:25:05	WARNING	Rate Spike	108.2 °F	95.65	+13.1%	-0.008	1.61	-3.87	41.1%
08/26/26 14:28:30	WARNING	Rate Spike	106.58 °F	95.16	+12%	0.008	1.62	3.76	40.4%
08/25/26 08:17:07	WARNING	Rate Spike	84.67 °F	98.01	-13.6%	-0.009	-1.32	-4.26	41.4%
08/15/26 16:23:09	WARNING	Rate Spike	112.68 °F	100.57	+12%	0.01	1.5	3.66	38.7%
08/05/26 13:59:42	WARNING	Rate Spike	112.75 °F	98.75	+14.2%	0.012	1.65	4.09	42.9%
08/05/26 13:44:34	WARNING	Rate Spike	108.62 °F	98.72	+10%	-0.012	1.17	-4.05	38.7%
08/04/26 17:28:00	WARNING	Rate Spike	106.6 °F	96.51	+10.5%	-0.011	1.09	-4.46	41%
08/03/26 08:55:18	WARNING	Rate Spike	80.64 °F	86.71	-7%	0.007	-0.62	3.57	30.7%
07/31/26 14:43:35	WARNING	Rate Spike	115.79 °F	101.03	+14.6%	0.011	1.64	3.99	42.1%
07/27/26 14:25:33	WARNING	Rate Spike	114.42 °F	98.28	+16.4%	0.011	1.62	3.84	40.9%
07/27/26 13:45:10	WARNING	Rate Spike	110.73 °F	98.15	+12.8%	-0.01	1.28	-3.75	37.4%

/ root / Lilac / Patio / Patio Heat Index

📈 Forecast Chart All Sensors ↗

🔮 Next Short Forecast (+1h)

80.228 °F (-0.96)

Target: 18:44 · 80% Cone: [79.06 – 81.4]

🔭 Next Long Forecast (+4h)

77.809 °F (-3.37)

Target: 21:44 · 80% Cone: [76.24 – 79.38]

🎯 Out-of-Sample Accuracy

80.6% (31 checked)

MAE: 1.419 °F · RMSE: 1.885 °F · Fit R²=0.99

🚨 Historical Failures & Drift

3 diverged ⚡ 3 anom

5 minor drift · Max Z-Error: 4.43σ

Target Time	Predicted At	Horizon	Model & R²	Start Value	Predicted (80% Cone)	Actual Reading	Error (Actual − Pred)	Z-Error	Outcome
11/02/26 21:44:15 (in 3.9h)	11/02 17:48:11	+4h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.98	81.183 °F	77.809 °F [76.24 – 79.38]	⏳ Waiting	-	-	⏳ Pending
11/02/26 18:44:15 (in 54m)	11/02 17:48:11	+1h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.98	81.183 °F	80.228 °F [79.06 – 81.4]	⏳ Waiting	-	-	⏳ Pending
11/02/26 07:46:40	11/02 03:48:39	+4h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.99	69.732 °F	68.833 °F [67.71 – 69.95]	69.57 °F	+0.737 °F	0.84σ	✓ Accurate
11/02/26 04:46:40	11/02 03:48:39	+1h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.99	69.732 °F	68.819 °F [67.99 – 69.65]	69.12 °F	+0.301 °F	0.46σ	✓ Accurate

Target Time	Predicted At	Horizon	Model & R²	Start Value	Predicted (80% Cone)	Actual Reading	Error (Actual − Pred)	Z-Error	Outcome
11/02/26 21:44:15 (in 3.9h)	11/02 17:48:11	+4h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.98	81.183 °F	77.809 °F [76.24 – 79.38]	⏳ Waiting	-	-	⏳ Pending
11/02/26 18:44:15 (in 54m)	11/02 17:48:11	+1h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.98	81.183 °F	80.228 °F [79.06 – 81.4]	⏳ Waiting	-	-	⏳ Pending
11/02/26 07:46:40	11/02 03:48:39	+4h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.99	69.732 °F	68.833 °F [67.71 – 69.95]	69.57 °F	+0.737 °F	0.84σ	✓ Accurate
11/02/26 04:46:40	11/02 03:48:39	+1h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.99	69.732 °F	68.819 °F [67.99 – 69.65]	69.12 °F	+0.301 °F	0.46σ	✓ Accurate
10/30/26 08:00:00	10/30 04:15:19	+4h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.98	68.007 °F	67.054 °F [65.07 – 69.04]	67.14 °F	+0.086 °F	0.06σ	✓ Accurate
10/30/26 05:00:00	10/30 04:15:19	+1h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.98	68.007 °F	67.479 °F [66 – 68.95]	67.99 °F	+0.511 °F	0.44σ	✓ Accurate
10/30/26 04:09:09	10/30 00:17:04	+4h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.98	69.059 °F	65.931 °F [64.59 – 67.27]	68.04 °F	+2.109 °F	2σ	~ Minor Drift
10/30/26 04:09:09	10/30 01:37:34	+4h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.97	69.357 °F	67.66 °F [65.67 – 69.65]	68.04 °F	+0.38 °F	0.24σ	✓ Accurate
10/30/26 01:09:09	10/30 00:17:04	+1h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.98	69.059 °F	68.35 °F [67.35 – 69.35]	No reading	-	-	No Reading
10/28/26 18:33:51	10/28 14:46:21	+4h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.99	84.29 °F	82.156 °F [80.71 – 83.61]	81.79 °F	-0.366 °F	0.32σ	✓ Accurate
10/28/26 15:33:51	10/28 14:46:21	+1h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.99	84.29 °F	85.988 °F [84.91 – 87.07]	88.06 °F	+2.072 °F	2.45σ	~ Minor Drift
10/27/26 20:20:27	10/27 16:30:54	+4h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.99	84.538 °F	76.048 °F [74.84 – 77.26]	76.9 °F	+0.852 °F	0.9σ	✓ Accurate
10/27/26 17:20:27	10/27 16:30:54	+1h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.99	84.538 °F	83.293 °F [82.4 – 84.19]	84.92 °F	+1.627 °F	2.31σ	~ Minor Drift
10/25/26 17:52:46	10/25 13:54:50	+4h	Local LOESS R²=1.00	81.069 °F	82.763 °F [82.09 – 83.44]	No reading	-	-	No Reading
10/25/26 14:52:46	10/25 13:54:50	+1h	Local LOESS R²=1.00	81.069 °F	81.731 °F [81.23 – 82.23]	81.38 °F	-0.351 °F	0.89σ	✓ Accurate
10/20/26 19:40:52	10/20 15:48:46	+4h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.99	81.261 °F	73.494 °F [71.84 – 75.15]	No reading	-	-	No Reading
10/20/26 19:19:43	10/20 15:21:31	+4h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.99	81.141 °F	74.39 °F [72.74 – 76.04]	No reading	-	-	No Reading
10/20/26 16:40:52	10/20 15:48:46	+1h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.99	81.261 °F	81.316 °F [80.09 – 82.55]	No reading	-	-	No Reading
10/20/26 16:19:43	10/20 15:21:31	+1h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.99	81.141 °F	81.6 °F [80.37 – 82.83]	No reading	-	-	No Reading
10/20/26 01:41:07	10/20 00:41:07	+1h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.99	59.396 °F	58.447 °F [56.8 – 60.09]	58.11 °F	-0.337 °F	0.26σ	✓ Accurate
10/20/26 01:39:28	10/19 21:39:28	+4h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.99	63.995 °F	59.414 °F [57.16 – 61.67]	58.11 °F	-1.304 °F	0.74σ	✓ Accurate
10/20/26 00:40:34	10/19 23:40:34	+1h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.99	60.523 °F	59.493 °F [57.84 – 61.14]	59.03 °F	-0.463 °F	0.36σ	✓ Accurate
10/19/26 22:39:28	10/19 21:39:28	+1h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.99	63.995 °F	62.249 °F [60.57 – 63.93]	62.35 °F	+0.101 °F	0.08σ	✓ Accurate
10/19/26 21:37:17	10/19 17:37:17	+4h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.99	77.087 °F	67.697 °F [65.54 – 69.85]	64.53 °F	-3.167 °F	1.87σ	~ Minor Drift
10/19/26 18:37:17	10/19 17:37:17	+1h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.99	77.087 °F	75.414 °F [73.81 – 77.02]	73.82 °F	-1.594 °F	1.27σ	✓ Accurate
10/19/26 17:40:08	10/19 13:40:08	+4h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.98	76.434 °F	76.013 °F [73.85 – 78.18]	77.15 °F	+1.137 °F	0.67σ	✓ Accurate
10/19/26 14:40:08	10/19 13:40:08	+1h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.98	76.434 °F	78.506 °F [76.9 – 80.12]	76.49 °F	-2.016 °F	1.6σ	✓ Accurate
10/19/26 13:37:23	10/19 09:37:23	+4h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.99	54.417 °F	70.446 °F [68.51 – 72.38]	73.86 °F	+3.414 °F	2.25σ	~ Minor Drift
10/19/26 10:37:23	10/19 09:37:23	+1h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.99	54.417 °F	58.127 °F [56.69 – 59.57]	63.12 °F	+4.993 °F	4.43σ	⚡ Anomaly Logged
10/19/26 09:40:14	10/19 05:40:14	+4h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.99	50.679 °F	56.135 °F [54.32 – 57.95]	58.03 °F	+1.895 °F	1.33σ	✓ Accurate
10/19/26 06:40:14	10/19 05:40:14	+1h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.99	50.679 °F	50.499 °F [49.15 – 51.85]	49.93 °F	-0.569 °F	0.54σ	✓ Accurate
10/19/26 05:37:50	10/19 01:37:50	+4h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.99	57.229 °F	52.386 °F [50.58 – 54.19]	50.91 °F	-1.476 °F	1.04σ	✓ Accurate
10/19/26 02:37:50	10/19 01:37:50	+1h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.99	57.229 °F	55.62 °F [54.28 – 56.96]	54.63 °F	-0.99 °F	0.94σ	✓ Accurate
10/19/26 01:40:42	10/18 21:40:42	+4h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.99	62.141 °F	56.573 °F [54.87 – 58.27]	56.05 °F	-0.523 °F	0.39σ	✓ Accurate
10/18/26 22:40:42	10/18 21:40:42	+1h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.99	62.141 °F	60.002 °F [58.74 – 61.27]	62.78 °F	+2.778 °F	2.8σ	⚡ Anomaly Logged
10/18/26 21:38:31	10/18 17:38:31	+4h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.99	73.605 °F	62.052 °F [60.42 – 63.69]	63.21 °F	+1.158 °F	0.9σ	✓ Accurate
10/18/26 18:38:31	10/18 17:38:31	+1h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.99	73.605 °F	71.447 °F [70.23 – 72.67]	69.94 °F	-1.507 °F	1.58σ	✓ Accurate
10/18/26 17:41:19	10/18 13:41:19	+4h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.99	69.532 °F	68.152 °F [66.68 – 69.63]	72.75 °F	+4.598 °F	3.96σ	⚡ Anomaly Logged
10/18/26 14:41:19	10/18 13:41:19	+1h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.99	69.532 °F	71.138 °F [70.04 – 72.24]	71.73 °F	+0.592 °F	0.69σ	✓ Accurate

Target Time	Predicted At	Horizon	Model & R²	Start Value	Predicted (80% Cone)	Actual Reading	Error (Actual − Pred)	Z-Error	Outcome
10/30/26 04:09:09	10/30 00:17:04	+4h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.98	69.059 °F	65.931 °F [64.59 – 67.27]	68.04 °F	+2.109 °F	2σ	~ Minor Drift
10/28/26 15:33:51	10/28 14:46:21	+1h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.99	84.29 °F	85.988 °F [84.91 – 87.07]	88.06 °F	+2.072 °F	2.45σ	~ Minor Drift
10/27/26 17:20:27	10/27 16:30:54	+1h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.99	84.538 °F	83.293 °F [82.4 – 84.19]	84.92 °F	+1.627 °F	2.31σ	~ Minor Drift
10/19/26 13:37:23	10/19 09:37:23	+4h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.99	54.417 °F	70.446 °F [68.51 – 72.38]	73.86 °F	+3.414 °F	2.25σ	~ Minor Drift
10/19/26 10:37:23	10/19 09:37:23	+1h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.99	54.417 °F	58.127 °F [56.69 – 59.57]	63.12 °F	+4.993 °F	4.43σ	⚡ Anomaly Logged
10/18/26 22:40:42	10/18 21:40:42	+1h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.99	62.141 °F	60.002 °F [58.74 – 61.27]	62.78 °F	+2.778 °F	2.8σ	⚡ Anomaly Logged
10/18/26 17:41:19	10/18 13:41:19	+4h	Diurnal + Trend R²=0.99	69.532 °F	68.152 °F [66.68 – 69.63]	72.75 °F	+4.598 °F	3.96σ	⚡ Anomaly Logged