No anomalies recorded in this time window.
No anomalies recorded for this sensor.
🎬 Walk-Forward Forecast Cone Replay
Quick Compare:
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Speed:
Trail:
⏱ Playhead Frame
—
📍 Fitted Value & Velocity
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📐 Active Model & Fit
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🔮 +1h Cone Forecast vs Actual
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🔭 +4h Cone Forecast vs Actual
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🎯 Running Replay Scorecard
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🔮 Next Short Forecast (+6h)
0.65 %/hr
(+0)
Target: 06:00 · 80% Cone: [0.64 – 0.66]
🔭 Next Long Forecast (+24h)
0.65 %/hr
(+0)
Target: 00:00 · 80% Cone: [0.64 – 0.66]
🎯 Out-of-Sample Accuracy
100%
(27 checked)
MAE: 0.009 %/hr · RMSE: 0.015 %/hr · Fit R²=0.89
🚨 Historical Failures & Drift
0 diverged
0 minor drift · Max Z-Error: 0.04σ
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| Target Time | Predicted At | Horizon | Model & R² | Start Value | Predicted (80% Cone) | Actual Reading | Error (Actual − Pred) | Z-Error | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/04/26 00:00:04 (in 19.6h) | 11/03 00:03:20 | +24h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.75 | 0.65 %/hr | 0.65 %/hr [0.64 – 0.66] | ⏳ Waiting | - | - | ⏳ Pending |
| 11/03/26 06:00:04 (in 1.6h) | 11/03 00:03:20 | +6h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.75 | 0.65 %/hr | 0.65 %/hr [0.64 – 0.66] | ⏳ Waiting | - | - | ⏳ Pending |
| 11/03/26 00:00:03 | 11/02 00:03:34 | +24h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.76 | 0.65 %/hr | 0.651 %/hr [0.64 – 0.66] | 0.65 %/hr | -0.001 %/hr | 0σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 11/02/26 06:00:03 | 11/02 00:03:34 | +6h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.76 | 0.65 %/hr | 0.65 %/hr [0.64 – 0.66] | No reading | - | - | No Reading |
| 11/02/26 00:00:04 | 11/01 00:03:03 | +24h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.77 | 0.647 %/hr | 0.65 %/hr [0.64 – 0.66] | 0.65 %/hr | 0 %/hr | 0σ | ✓ Accurate |
|
| Target Time | Predicted At | Horizon | Model & R² | Start Value | Predicted (80% Cone) | Actual Reading | Error (Actual − Pred) | Z-Error | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/04/26 00:00:04 (in 19.6h) | 11/03 00:03:20 | +24h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.75 | 0.65 %/hr | 0.65 %/hr [0.64 – 0.66] | ⏳ Waiting | - | - | ⏳ Pending |
| 11/03/26 06:00:04 (in 1.6h) | 11/03 00:03:20 | +6h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.75 | 0.65 %/hr | 0.65 %/hr [0.64 – 0.66] | ⏳ Waiting | - | - | ⏳ Pending |
| 11/03/26 00:00:03 | 11/02 00:03:34 | +24h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.76 | 0.65 %/hr | 0.651 %/hr [0.64 – 0.66] | 0.65 %/hr | -0.001 %/hr | 0σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 11/02/26 06:00:03 | 11/02 00:03:34 | +6h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.76 | 0.65 %/hr | 0.65 %/hr [0.64 – 0.66] | No reading | - | - | No Reading |
| 11/02/26 00:00:04 | 11/01 00:03:03 | +24h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.77 | 0.647 %/hr | 0.65 %/hr [0.64 – 0.66] | 0.65 %/hr | 0 %/hr | 0σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 11/01/26 06:00:04 | 11/01 00:03:03 | +6h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.77 | 0.647 %/hr | 0.648 %/hr [0.64 – 0.66] | No reading | - | - | No Reading |
| 11/01/26 00:00:02 | 10/31 00:02:34 | +24h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.80 | 0.64 %/hr | 0.64 %/hr [0.63 – 0.65] | 0.65 %/hr | +0.01 %/hr | 0.01σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/31/26 06:00:02 | 10/31 00:02:34 | +6h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.80 | 0.64 %/hr | 0.64 %/hr [0.63 – 0.65] | No reading | - | - | No Reading |
| 10/31/26 00:00:04 | 10/30 00:02:04 | +24h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.80 | 0.64 %/hr | 0.639 %/hr [0.63 – 0.65] | 0.64 %/hr | +0.001 %/hr | 0σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/30/26 06:00:04 | 10/30 00:02:04 | +6h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.80 | 0.64 %/hr | 0.639 %/hr [0.63 – 0.65] | No reading | - | - | No Reading |
| 10/30/26 00:00:04 | 10/29 00:01:33 | +24h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.84 | 0.64 %/hr | 0.638 %/hr [0.63 – 0.65] | 0.64 %/hr | +0.002 %/hr | 0σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/29/26 06:00:04 | 10/29 00:01:33 | +6h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.84 | 0.64 %/hr | 0.639 %/hr [0.63 – 0.65] | No reading | - | - | No Reading |
| 10/29/26 00:00:03 | 10/28 00:01:03 | +24h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.82 | 0.652 %/hr | 0.643 %/hr [0.63 – 0.66] | 0.64 %/hr | -0.003 %/hr | 0σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/28/26 06:00:03 | 10/28 00:01:03 | +6h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.82 | 0.652 %/hr | 0.648 %/hr [0.64 – 0.66] | No reading | - | - | No Reading |
| 10/28/26 00:00:02 | 10/27 00:00:36 | +24h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.97 | 0.67 %/hr | 0.671 %/hr [0.66 – 0.68] | 0.64 %/hr | -0.031 %/hr | 0.04σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/28/26 00:00:02 | 10/27 15:00:46 | +24h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.97 | 0.67 %/hr | 0.671 %/hr [0.66 – 0.68] | 0.64 %/hr | -0.031 %/hr | 0.04σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/28/26 00:00:02 | 10/27 17:42:08 | +24h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.97 | 0.67 %/hr | 0.671 %/hr [0.66 – 0.68] | 0.64 %/hr | -0.031 %/hr | 0.04σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/28/26 00:00:02 | 10/27 19:54:13 | +24h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.97 | 0.67 %/hr | 0.671 %/hr [0.66 – 0.68] | 0.64 %/hr | -0.031 %/hr | 0.04σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/28/26 00:00:02 | 10/27 21:15:52 | +24h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.97 | 0.67 %/hr | 0.671 %/hr [0.66 – 0.68] | 0.64 %/hr | -0.031 %/hr | 0.04σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/28/26 00:00:02 | 10/27 23:42:40 | +24h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.97 | 0.67 %/hr | 0.671 %/hr [0.66 – 0.68] | 0.64 %/hr | -0.031 %/hr | 0.04σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/27/26 07:40:04 | 10/26 07:46:04 | +24h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.97 | 0.667 %/hr | 0.67 %/hr [0.66 – 0.68] | No reading | - | - | No Reading |
| 10/27/26 07:40:04 | 10/26 19:51:35 | +24h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.97 | 0.667 %/hr | 0.67 %/hr [0.66 – 0.68] | No reading | - | - | No Reading |
| 10/27/26 06:00:02 | 10/27 00:00:36 | +6h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.97 | 0.67 %/hr | 0.67 %/hr [0.67 – 0.68] | No reading | - | - | No Reading |
| 10/26/26 13:40:04 | 10/26 07:46:04 | +6h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.97 | 0.667 %/hr | 0.669 %/hr [0.66 – 0.67] | No reading | - | - | No Reading |
| 10/26/26 00:00:02 | 10/25 00:09:35 | +24h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.96 | 0.661 %/hr | 0.661 %/hr [0.65 – 0.67] | No reading | - | - | No Reading |
| 10/26/26 00:00:02 | 10/25 03:55:20 | +24h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.96 | 0.661 %/hr | 0.661 %/hr [0.65 – 0.67] | No reading | - | - | No Reading |
| 10/26/26 00:00:02 | 10/25 04:23:23 | +24h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.96 | 0.661 %/hr | 0.661 %/hr [0.65 – 0.67] | No reading | - | - | No Reading |
| 10/26/26 00:00:02 | 10/25 12:27:19 | +24h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.96 | 0.661 %/hr | 0.661 %/hr [0.65 – 0.67] | No reading | - | - | No Reading |
| 10/25/26 06:00:02 | 10/25 00:09:35 | +6h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.96 | 0.661 %/hr | 0.661 %/hr [0.66 – 0.67] | No reading | - | - | No Reading |
| 10/25/26 06:00:02 | 10/25 03:55:20 | +6h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.96 | 0.661 %/hr | 0.661 %/hr [0.66 – 0.67] | No reading | - | - | No Reading |
| 10/25/26 06:00:02 | 10/25 04:23:23 | +6h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.96 | 0.661 %/hr | 0.661 %/hr [0.66 – 0.67] | No reading | - | - | No Reading |
| 10/25/26 00:00:03 | 10/24 00:09:09 | +24h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.94 | 0.662 %/hr | 0.662 %/hr [0.65 – 0.67] | 0.66 %/hr | -0.002 %/hr | 0σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/25/26 00:00:03 | 10/24 08:19:14 | +24h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.94 | 0.662 %/hr | 0.662 %/hr [0.65 – 0.67] | 0.66 %/hr | -0.002 %/hr | 0σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/25/26 00:00:03 | 10/24 10:10:53 | +24h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.94 | 0.662 %/hr | 0.662 %/hr [0.65 – 0.67] | 0.66 %/hr | -0.002 %/hr | 0σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/25/26 00:00:03 | 10/24 16:50:32 | +24h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.94 | 0.662 %/hr | 0.662 %/hr [0.65 – 0.67] | 0.66 %/hr | -0.002 %/hr | 0σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/25/26 00:00:03 | 10/24 20:38:55 | +24h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.94 | 0.662 %/hr | 0.662 %/hr [0.65 – 0.67] | 0.66 %/hr | -0.002 %/hr | 0σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/24/26 06:00:03 | 10/24 00:09:09 | +6h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.94 | 0.662 %/hr | 0.662 %/hr [0.66 – 0.67] | No reading | - | - | No Reading |
| 10/24/26 00:00:03 | 10/23 05:53:56 | +24h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.93 | 0.661 %/hr | 0.662 %/hr [0.65 – 0.67] | 0.66 %/hr | -0.002 %/hr | 0σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/24/26 00:00:03 | 10/23 15:16:36 | +24h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.93 | 0.661 %/hr | 0.662 %/hr [0.65 – 0.67] | 0.66 %/hr | -0.002 %/hr | 0σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/23/26 06:00:03 | 10/23 05:53:56 | +6h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.93 | 0.661 %/hr | 0.662 %/hr [0.66 – 0.67] | No reading | - | - | No Reading |
| 10/23/26 00:00:03 | 10/22 01:26:16 | +24h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.92 | 0.658 %/hr | 0.662 %/hr [0.65 – 0.67] | 0.66 %/hr | -0.002 %/hr | 0σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/23/26 00:00:03 | 10/22 11:02:33 | +24h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.92 | 0.658 %/hr | 0.662 %/hr [0.65 – 0.67] | 0.66 %/hr | -0.002 %/hr | 0σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/23/26 00:00:03 | 10/22 21:58:40 | +24h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.92 | 0.658 %/hr | 0.662 %/hr [0.65 – 0.67] | 0.66 %/hr | -0.002 %/hr | 0σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/22/26 06:00:03 | 10/22 01:26:16 | +6h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.92 | 0.658 %/hr | 0.66 %/hr [0.66 – 0.67] | No reading | - | - | No Reading |
| 10/22/26 06:00:03 | 10/22 11:02:33 | +6h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.92 | 0.658 %/hr | 0.66 %/hr [0.66 – 0.67] | No reading | - | - | No Reading |
| 10/22/26 06:00:03 | 10/22 21:58:40 | +6h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.92 | 0.658 %/hr | 0.66 %/hr [0.66 – 0.67] | No reading | - | - | No Reading |
| 10/22/26 00:00:03 | 10/21 00:04:32 | +24h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.88 | 0.651 %/hr | 0.651 %/hr [0.64 – 0.66] | 0.66 %/hr | +0.009 %/hr | 0.01σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/22/26 00:00:03 | 10/21 17:41:00 | +24h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.88 | 0.651 %/hr | 0.651 %/hr [0.64 – 0.66] | 0.66 %/hr | +0.009 %/hr | 0.01σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/21/26 06:00:03 | 10/21 00:04:32 | +6h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.88 | 0.651 %/hr | 0.651 %/hr [0.65 – 0.66] | No reading | - | - | No Reading |
| 10/21/26 06:00:03 | 10/21 17:41:00 | +6h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.88 | 0.651 %/hr | 0.651 %/hr [0.65 – 0.66] | No reading | - | - | No Reading |
| 10/21/26 00:00:03 | 10/20 00:06:13 | +24h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.83 | 0.648 %/hr | 0.651 %/hr [0.64 – 0.66] | 0.65 %/hr | -0.001 %/hr | 0σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/21/26 00:00:03 | 10/20 09:51:07 | +24h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.83 | 0.648 %/hr | 0.651 %/hr [0.64 – 0.66] | 0.65 %/hr | -0.001 %/hr | 0σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/20/26 06:00:03 | 10/20 00:06:13 | +6h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.83 | 0.648 %/hr | 0.649 %/hr [0.64 – 0.66] | No reading | - | - | No Reading |
| 10/20/26 06:00:03 | 10/20 09:51:07 | +6h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.83 | 0.648 %/hr | 0.649 %/hr [0.64 – 0.66] | No reading | - | - | No Reading |
| 10/20/26 00:00:02 | 10/19 20:33:19 | +24h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.80 | 0.642 %/hr | 0.642 %/hr [0.63 – 0.65] | 0.65 %/hr | +0.008 %/hr | 0.01σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/19/26 06:00:02 | 10/19 20:33:19 | +6h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.80 | 0.642 %/hr | 0.642 %/hr [0.64 – 0.65] | No reading | - | - | No Reading |
✓ Zero forecast failures or divergences recorded for this sensor!
All 27 evaluated predictions stayed within the expected confidence cone.