No anomalies recorded in this time window.
No anomalies recorded for this sensor.
🎬 Walk-Forward Forecast Cone Replay
Quick Compare:
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Speed:
Trail:
⏱ Playhead Frame
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📍 Fitted Value & Velocity
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📐 Active Model & Fit
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🔮 +1h Cone Forecast vs Actual
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🔭 +4h Cone Forecast vs Actual
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🎯 Running Replay Scorecard
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🔮 Next Short Forecast (+6h)
0 kwh
(+0)
Target: 06:00 · 80% Cone: [0 – 1.37]
🔭 Next Long Forecast (+24h)
0 kwh
(+0)
Target: 00:00 · 80% Cone: [0 – 1.98]
🎯 Out-of-Sample Accuracy
100%
(18 checked)
MAE: 1.559 kwh · RMSE: 3.275 kwh · Fit R²=0.67
🚨 Historical Failures & Drift
0 diverged
1 minor drift · Max Z-Error: 1.92σ
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| Target Time | Predicted At | Horizon | Model & R² | Start Value | Predicted (80% Cone) | Actual Reading | Error (Actual − Pred) | Z-Error | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/04/26 00:00:00 (in 20.8h) | 11/03 00:03:20 | +24h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.94 | 0 kwh | 0 kwh [0 – 1.98] | ⏳ Waiting | - | - | ⏳ Pending |
| 11/03/26 06:00:00 (in 2.8h) | 11/03 00:03:20 | +6h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.94 | 0 kwh | 0 kwh [0 – 1.37] | ⏳ Waiting | - | - | ⏳ Pending |
| 11/03/26 00:00:00 | 11/02 00:03:34 | +24h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.89 | 0 kwh | 0 kwh [0 – 2.87] | 0 kwh | 0 kwh | 0σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 11/02/26 06:00:00 | 11/02 00:03:34 | +6h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.89 | 0 kwh | 0 kwh [0 – 2] | No reading | - | - | No Reading |
| 11/02/26 00:00:00 | 11/01 00:03:03 | +24h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.93 | 0 kwh | 0 kwh [0 – 2.71] | 0 kwh | 0 kwh | 0σ | ✓ Accurate |
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| Target Time | Predicted At | Horizon | Model & R² | Start Value | Predicted (80% Cone) | Actual Reading | Error (Actual − Pred) | Z-Error | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/04/26 00:00:00 (in 20.8h) | 11/03 00:03:20 | +24h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.94 | 0 kwh | 0 kwh [0 – 1.98] | ⏳ Waiting | - | - | ⏳ Pending |
| 11/03/26 06:00:00 (in 2.8h) | 11/03 00:03:20 | +6h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.94 | 0 kwh | 0 kwh [0 – 1.37] | ⏳ Waiting | - | - | ⏳ Pending |
| 11/03/26 00:00:00 | 11/02 00:03:34 | +24h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.89 | 0 kwh | 0 kwh [0 – 2.87] | 0 kwh | 0 kwh | 0σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 11/02/26 06:00:00 | 11/02 00:03:34 | +6h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.89 | 0 kwh | 0 kwh [0 – 2] | No reading | - | - | No Reading |
| 11/02/26 00:00:00 | 11/01 00:03:03 | +24h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.93 | 0 kwh | 0 kwh [0 – 2.71] | 0 kwh | 0 kwh | 0σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 11/01/26 06:00:00 | 11/01 00:03:03 | +6h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.93 | 0 kwh | 0 kwh [0 – 1.89] | No reading | - | - | No Reading |
| 11/01/26 00:00:00 | 10/31 00:02:34 | +24h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.92 | 0 kwh | 0 kwh [0 – 2.89] | 0 kwh | 0 kwh | 0σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/31/26 06:00:00 | 10/31 00:02:34 | +6h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.92 | 0 kwh | 0 kwh [0 – 2.01] | No reading | - | - | No Reading |
| 10/31/26 00:00:00 | 10/30 00:02:04 | +24h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.92 | 0 kwh | 0 kwh [0 – 2.95] | 0 kwh | 0 kwh | 0σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/30/26 06:00:00 | 10/30 00:02:04 | +6h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.92 | 0 kwh | 0 kwh [0 – 2.06] | No reading | - | - | No Reading |
| 10/30/26 00:00:00 | 10/29 00:01:33 | +24h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.91 | 0 kwh | 0 kwh [0 – 3.01] | 0 kwh | 0 kwh | 0σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/29/26 06:00:00 | 10/29 00:01:33 | +6h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.91 | 0 kwh | 0 kwh [0 – 2.1] | No reading | - | - | No Reading |
| 10/29/26 00:00:00 | 10/28 00:01:03 | +24h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.89 | 0 kwh | 0 kwh [0 – 3.38] | 0 kwh | 0 kwh | 0σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/28/26 06:00:00 | 10/28 00:01:03 | +6h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.89 | 0 kwh | 0 kwh [0 – 2.35] | No reading | - | - | No Reading |
| 10/28/26 00:00:00 | 10/27 00:00:36 | +24h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.90 | 0 kwh | 0 kwh [0 – 3.3] | 0 kwh | 0 kwh | 0σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/27/26 06:00:00 | 10/27 00:00:36 | +6h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.90 | 0 kwh | 0 kwh [0 – 2.3] | No reading | - | - | No Reading |
| 10/27/26 00:00:00 | 10/26 07:46:04 | +24h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.85 | 0 kwh | 0 kwh [0 – 3.7] | 0 kwh | 0 kwh | 0σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/26/26 00:00:00 | 10/25 00:09:35 | +24h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.82 | 0 kwh | 0 kwh [0 – 3.66] | 0 kwh | 0 kwh | 0σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/25/26 06:00:00 | 10/25 00:09:35 | +6h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.82 | 0 kwh | 0 kwh [0 – 2.54] | No reading | - | - | No Reading |
| 10/25/26 00:00:00 | 10/24 00:09:09 | +24h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.73 | 0.681 kwh | 0 kwh [0 – 3.67] | 0 kwh | 0 kwh | 0σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/25/26 00:00:00 | 10/24 05:06:37 | +24h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.73 | 0.681 kwh | 0 kwh [0 – 3.67] | 0 kwh | 0 kwh | 0σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/24/26 06:00:00 | 10/24 00:09:09 | +6h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.73 | 0.681 kwh | 0.108 kwh [0 – 2.66] | No reading | - | - | No Reading |
| 10/24/26 06:00:00 | 10/24 05:06:37 | +6h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.73 | 0.681 kwh | 0.108 kwh [0 – 2.66] | No reading | - | - | No Reading |
| 10/24/26 00:00:00 | 10/23 03:40:16 | +24h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.44 | 4.289 kwh | 2.116 kwh [-1.98 – 6.22] | 0 kwh | -2.116 kwh | 0.37σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/24/26 00:00:00 | 10/23 15:15:12 | +24h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.39 | 5.061 kwh | 3.246 kwh [-0.59 – 7.09] | 0 kwh | -3.246 kwh | 0.61σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/23/26 06:00:00 | 10/23 03:40:16 | +6h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.44 | 4.289 kwh | 3.281 kwh [0.43 – 6.14] | No reading | - | - | No Reading |
| 10/23/26 00:00:00 | 10/22 21:54:29 | +24h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.20 | 7.152 kwh | 6.331 kwh [2.84 – 9.83] | 2.022 kwh | -4.309 kwh | 0.89σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/22/26 06:00:00 | 10/22 21:54:29 | +6h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.20 | 7.152 kwh | 6.771 kwh [4.34 – 9.2] | No reading | - | - | No Reading |
| 10/22/26 00:00:00 | 10/21 00:04:32 | +24h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.56 | 2.379 kwh | 0.16 kwh [0 – 4.43] | 8.906 kwh | +8.746 kwh | 1.48σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/22/26 00:00:00 | 10/21 21:37:17 | +24h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.14 | 8.561 kwh | 9.202 kwh [5.72 – 12.69] | 8.906 kwh | -0.296 kwh | 0.06σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/21/26 06:00:00 | 10/21 00:04:32 | +6h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.56 | 2.379 kwh | 1.35 kwh [0 – 4.32] | No reading | - | - | No Reading |
| 10/21/26 06:00:00 | 10/21 21:37:17 | +6h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.14 | 8.561 kwh | 8.858 kwh [6.43 – 11.29] | No reading | - | - | No Reading |
| 10/21/26 00:00:00 | 10/20 00:06:13 | +24h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.46 | 3.039 kwh | 0.242 kwh [0 – 5.08] | 0 kwh | -0.242 kwh | 0.04σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/20/26 06:00:00 | 10/20 00:06:13 | +6h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.46 | 3.039 kwh | 1.742 kwh [0 – 5.11] | No reading | - | - | No Reading |
| 10/20/26 00:00:00 | 10/19 20:33:19 | +24h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.16 | 8.323 kwh | 9.101 kwh [5.67 – 12.54] | 0 kwh | -9.101 kwh | 1.92σ | ~ Minor Drift |
| 10/19/26 06:00:00 | 10/19 20:33:19 | +6h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.16 | 8.323 kwh | 8.684 kwh [6.29 – 11.08] | No reading | - | - | No Reading |
✓ Zero forecast failures or divergences recorded for this sensor!
All 18 evaluated predictions stayed within the expected confidence cone.