No anomalies recorded in this time window.
No anomalies recorded for this sensor.
🎬 Walk-Forward Forecast Cone Replay
Quick Compare:
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Speed:
Trail:
⏱ Playhead Frame
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📍 Fitted Value & Velocity
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📐 Active Model & Fit
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🔮 +1h Cone Forecast vs Actual
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🔭 +4h Cone Forecast vs Actual
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🎯 Running Replay Scorecard
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🔮 Next Short Forecast (+1h)
29.966 mmHg/hr
(+0)
Target: 06:01 · 80% Cone: [29.92 – 30.01]
🔭 Next Long Forecast (+4h)
29.969 mmHg/hr
(+0.01)
Target: 09:01 · 80% Cone: [29.91 – 30.03]
🎯 Out-of-Sample Accuracy
100%
(34 checked)
MAE: 0.093 mmHg/hr · RMSE: 0.122 mmHg/hr · Fit R²=0.86
🚨 Historical Failures & Drift
0 diverged
0 minor drift · Max Z-Error: 0.66σ
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| Target Time | Predicted At | Horizon | Model & R² | Start Value | Predicted (80% Cone) | Actual Reading | Error (Actual − Pred) | Z-Error | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/03/26 09:01:37 (in 3.9h) | 11/03 05:03:26 | +4h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.97 | 29.963 mmHg/hr | 29.969 mmHg/hr [29.91 – 30.03] | ⏳ Waiting | - | - | ⏳ Pending |
| 11/03/26 06:01:37 (in 53m) | 11/03 05:03:26 | +1h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.97 | 29.963 mmHg/hr | 29.966 mmHg/hr [29.92 – 30.01] | ⏳ Waiting | - | - | ⏳ Pending |
| 11/02/26 07:47:55 | 11/02 03:48:39 | +4h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.98 | 29.384 mmHg/hr | 29.429 mmHg/hr [29.37 – 29.48] | 29.666 mmHg/hr | +0.237 mmHg/hr | 0.6σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 11/02/26 04:47:55 | 11/02 03:48:39 | +1h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.98 | 29.384 mmHg/hr | 29.401 mmHg/hr [29.36 – 29.44] | 29.424 mmHg/hr | +0.023 mmHg/hr | 0.08σ | ✓ Accurate |
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| Target Time | Predicted At | Horizon | Model & R² | Start Value | Predicted (80% Cone) | Actual Reading | Error (Actual − Pred) | Z-Error | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/03/26 09:01:37 (in 3.9h) | 11/03 05:03:26 | +4h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.97 | 29.963 mmHg/hr | 29.969 mmHg/hr [29.91 – 30.03] | ⏳ Waiting | - | - | ⏳ Pending |
| 11/03/26 06:01:37 (in 53m) | 11/03 05:03:26 | +1h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.97 | 29.963 mmHg/hr | 29.966 mmHg/hr [29.92 – 30.01] | ⏳ Waiting | - | - | ⏳ Pending |
| 11/02/26 07:47:55 | 11/02 03:48:39 | +4h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.98 | 29.384 mmHg/hr | 29.429 mmHg/hr [29.37 – 29.48] | 29.666 mmHg/hr | +0.237 mmHg/hr | 0.6σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 11/02/26 04:47:55 | 11/02 03:48:39 | +1h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.98 | 29.384 mmHg/hr | 29.401 mmHg/hr [29.36 – 29.44] | 29.424 mmHg/hr | +0.023 mmHg/hr | 0.08σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/25/26 17:51:43 | 10/25 13:54:50 | +4h | Diurnal + Trend R²=0.96 | 29.885 mmHg/hr | 30.069 mmHg/hr [30.02 – 30.12] | No reading | - | - | No Reading |
| 10/25/26 14:51:43 | 10/25 13:54:50 | +1h | Diurnal + Trend R²=0.96 | 29.885 mmHg/hr | 29.909 mmHg/hr [29.87 – 29.94] | No reading | - | - | No Reading |
| 10/23/26 19:20:48 | 10/23 15:24:07 | +4h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.92 | 29.639 mmHg/hr | 29.588 mmHg/hr [29.53 – 29.65] | 29.766 mmHg/hr | +0.178 mmHg/hr | 0.45σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/23/26 16:20:48 | 10/23 15:24:07 | +1h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.92 | 29.639 mmHg/hr | 29.619 mmHg/hr [29.58 – 29.66] | 29.619 mmHg/hr | 0 mmHg/hr | 0σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/23/26 09:40:46 | 10/23 05:43:29 | +4h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.53 | 29.756 mmHg/hr | 29.73 mmHg/hr [29.61 – 29.85] | 29.763 mmHg/hr | +0.033 mmHg/hr | 0.08σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/23/26 06:40:46 | 10/23 05:43:29 | +1h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.53 | 29.756 mmHg/hr | 29.746 mmHg/hr [29.66 – 29.84] | 29.754 mmHg/hr | +0.008 mmHg/hr | 0.03σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/22/26 17:00:41 | 10/22 13:03:16 | +4h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.56 | 29.915 mmHg/hr | 29.834 mmHg/hr [29.71 – 29.96] | 29.952 mmHg/hr | +0.118 mmHg/hr | 0.3σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/22/26 14:00:41 | 10/22 13:03:16 | +1h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.56 | 29.915 mmHg/hr | 29.883 mmHg/hr [29.79 – 29.98] | 29.825 mmHg/hr | -0.058 mmHg/hr | 0.2σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/21/26 23:50:35 | 10/21 19:52:00 | +4h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.56 | 30.066 mmHg/hr | 30.162 mmHg/hr [30.04 – 30.28] | 29.929 mmHg/hr | -0.233 mmHg/hr | 0.59σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/21/26 20:50:35 | 10/21 19:52:00 | +1h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.56 | 30.066 mmHg/hr | 30.104 mmHg/hr [30.02 – 30.19] | 30.106 mmHg/hr | +0.002 mmHg/hr | 0.01σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/21/26 05:45:33 | 10/21 01:49:34 | +4h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.88 | 29.983 mmHg/hr | 29.965 mmHg/hr [29.91 – 30.02] | 30.014 mmHg/hr | +0.049 mmHg/hr | 0.12σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/21/26 02:45:33 | 10/21 01:49:34 | +1h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.88 | 29.983 mmHg/hr | 29.976 mmHg/hr [29.93 – 30.02] | 29.976 mmHg/hr | 0 mmHg/hr | 0σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/20/26 19:35:30 | 10/20 15:37:05 | +4h | Diurnal + Trend R²=0.95 | 29.812 mmHg/hr | 29.869 mmHg/hr [29.83 – 29.9] | 29.946 mmHg/hr | +0.077 mmHg/hr | 0.19σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/20/26 16:35:30 | 10/20 15:37:05 | +1h | Diurnal + Trend R²=0.95 | 29.812 mmHg/hr | 29.807 mmHg/hr [29.78 – 29.83] | 29.813 mmHg/hr | +0.006 mmHg/hr | 0.02σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/19/26 23:50:26 | 10/19 22:50:26 | +1h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.84 | 29.917 mmHg/hr | 29.907 mmHg/hr [29.81 – 30.01] | 29.84 mmHg/hr | -0.067 mmHg/hr | 0.23σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/19/26 23:50:25 | 10/19 19:50:25 | +4h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.85 | 29.913 mmHg/hr | 29.976 mmHg/hr [29.85 – 30.11] | 29.84 mmHg/hr | -0.136 mmHg/hr | 0.34σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/19/26 22:50:26 | 10/19 21:50:26 | +1h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.85 | 29.937 mmHg/hr | 29.934 mmHg/hr [29.84 – 30.03] | 29.855 mmHg/hr | -0.079 mmHg/hr | 0.27σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/19/26 20:50:25 | 10/19 19:50:25 | +1h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.85 | 29.913 mmHg/hr | 29.937 mmHg/hr [29.84 – 30.04] | 29.908 mmHg/hr | -0.029 mmHg/hr | 0.1σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/19/26 19:50:25 | 10/19 15:50:25 | +4h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.87 | 29.747 mmHg/hr | 29.67 mmHg/hr [29.55 – 29.8] | 29.932 mmHg/hr | +0.262 mmHg/hr | 0.66σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/19/26 16:50:25 | 10/19 15:50:25 | +1h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.87 | 29.747 mmHg/hr | 29.717 mmHg/hr [29.63 – 29.81] | 29.84 mmHg/hr | +0.129 mmHg/hr | 0.44σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/19/26 15:50:25 | 10/19 11:50:25 | +4h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.87 | 29.93 mmHg/hr | 29.85 mmHg/hr [29.73 – 29.97] | 29.763 mmHg/hr | -0.087 mmHg/hr | 0.22σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/19/26 12:50:25 | 10/19 11:50:25 | +1h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.87 | 29.93 mmHg/hr | 29.899 mmHg/hr [29.81 – 29.99] | 29.878 mmHg/hr | -0.021 mmHg/hr | 0.07σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/19/26 11:50:24 | 10/19 07:50:24 | +4h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.89 | 30.01 mmHg/hr | 30.078 mmHg/hr [29.97 – 30.19] | 29.881 mmHg/hr | -0.197 mmHg/hr | 0.5σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/19/26 08:50:24 | 10/19 07:50:24 | +1h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.89 | 30.01 mmHg/hr | 30.037 mmHg/hr [29.95 – 30.12] | 30.026 mmHg/hr | -0.014 mmHg/hr | 0.05σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/19/26 07:50:23 | 10/19 03:50:23 | +4h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.91 | 29.834 mmHg/hr | 29.842 mmHg/hr [29.74 – 29.95] | 30.02 mmHg/hr | +0.184 mmHg/hr | 0.47σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/19/26 04:50:23 | 10/19 03:50:23 | +1h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.91 | 29.834 mmHg/hr | 29.837 mmHg/hr [29.76 – 29.92] | 29.961 mmHg/hr | +0.118 mmHg/hr | 0.4σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/19/26 03:50:23 | 10/18 23:50:23 | +4h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.92 | 29.911 mmHg/hr | 29.862 mmHg/hr [29.76 – 29.96] | 29.878 mmHg/hr | +0.016 mmHg/hr | 0.04σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/19/26 00:50:23 | 10/18 23:50:23 | +1h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.92 | 29.911 mmHg/hr | 29.892 mmHg/hr [29.82 – 29.97] | 29.867 mmHg/hr | -0.025 mmHg/hr | 0.09σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/18/26 23:50:22 | 10/18 19:50:22 | +4h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.93 | 30.002 mmHg/hr | 30.07 mmHg/hr [29.98 – 30.16] | 29.908 mmHg/hr | -0.162 mmHg/hr | 0.41σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/18/26 20:50:22 | 10/18 19:50:22 | +1h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.93 | 30.002 mmHg/hr | 30.029 mmHg/hr [29.96 – 30.1] | 29.988 mmHg/hr | -0.041 mmHg/hr | 0.14σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/18/26 19:50:21 | 10/18 15:50:21 | +4h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.95 | 29.793 mmHg/hr | 29.776 mmHg/hr [29.7 – 29.86] | 30.014 mmHg/hr | +0.229 mmHg/hr | 0.58σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/18/26 16:50:21 | 10/18 15:50:21 | +1h | Adaptive LOESS R²=0.95 | 29.793 mmHg/hr | 29.786 mmHg/hr [29.73 – 29.85] | 29.958 mmHg/hr | +0.172 mmHg/hr | 0.59σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/18/26 15:50:21 | 10/18 11:50:21 | +4h | Diurnal + Trend R²=0.99 | 29.889 mmHg/hr | 29.713 mmHg/hr [29.67 – 29.75] | 29.852 mmHg/hr | +0.136 mmHg/hr | 0.34σ | ✓ Accurate |
| 10/18/26 12:50:21 | 10/18 11:50:21 | +1h | Diurnal + Trend R²=0.99 | 29.889 mmHg/hr | 29.829 mmHg/hr [29.8 – 29.86] | 29.864 mmHg/hr | +0.035 mmHg/hr | 0.12σ | ✓ Accurate |
✓ Zero forecast failures or divergences recorded for this sensor!
All 34 evaluated predictions stayed within the expected confidence cone.