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/ root / Laker / Outside / WS1 / Rain / WS1 Daily Rain | RoC: -0.71 - 0.33 (in/hr)

/ root / Laker / Outside / WS1 / Rain / WS1 Daily Rain

📈 Forecast Chart All Sensors ↗

🔮 Next Short Forecast (+6h)

0.01 in/hr (-0.01)

Target: 10:16 · 80% Cone: [0 – 0.29]

🔭 Next Long Forecast (+24h)

0 in/hr (-0.02)

Target: 04:16 · 80% Cone: [0 – 0.4]

🎯 Out-of-Sample Accuracy

91.5% (59 checked)

MAE: 0.495 in/hr · RMSE: 0.704 in/hr · Fit R²=0.55

🚨 Historical Failures & Drift

3 diverged

4 minor drift · Max Z-Error: 2.8σ

Target Time	Predicted At	Horizon	Model & R²	Start Value	Predicted (80% Cone)	Actual Reading	Error (Actual − Pred)	Z-Error	Outcome
11/04/26 04:16:37 (in 23.8h)	11/03 04:18:25	+24h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.65	0.023 in/hr	0 in/hr [0 – 0.4]	⏳ Waiting	-	-	⏳ Pending
11/03/26 10:16:37 (in 5.8h)	11/03 04:18:25	+6h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.65	0.023 in/hr	0.01 in/hr [0 – 0.29]	⏳ Waiting	-	-	⏳ Pending
11/03/26 03:47:55	11/02 03:48:39	+24h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.64	0.323 in/hr	0.352 in/hr [0 – 0.75]	0 in/hr	-0.352 in/hr	0.45σ	✓ Accurate
11/02/26 09:47:55	11/02 03:48:39	+6h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.64	0.323 in/hr	0.336 in/hr [0.06 – 0.61]	0.106 in/hr	-0.23 in/hr	0.51σ	✓ Accurate

Target Time	Predicted At	Horizon	Model & R²	Start Value	Predicted (80% Cone)	Actual Reading	Error (Actual − Pred)	Z-Error	Outcome
11/04/26 04:16:37 (in 23.8h)	11/03 04:18:25	+24h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.65	0.023 in/hr	0 in/hr [0 – 0.4]	⏳ Waiting	-	-	⏳ Pending
11/03/26 10:16:37 (in 5.8h)	11/03 04:18:25	+6h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.65	0.023 in/hr	0.01 in/hr [0 – 0.29]	⏳ Waiting	-	-	⏳ Pending
11/03/26 03:47:55	11/02 03:48:39	+24h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.64	0.323 in/hr	0.352 in/hr [0 – 0.75]	0 in/hr	-0.352 in/hr	0.45σ	✓ Accurate
11/02/26 09:47:55	11/02 03:48:39	+6h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.64	0.323 in/hr	0.336 in/hr [0.06 – 0.61]	0.106 in/hr	-0.23 in/hr	0.51σ	✓ Accurate
10/26/26 13:51:43	10/25 13:54:50	+24h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.63	0.148 in/hr	0.146 in/hr [0 – 0.64]	0 in/hr	-0.146 in/hr	0.18σ	✓ Accurate
10/25/26 19:51:43	10/25 13:54:50	+6h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.63	0.148 in/hr	0.147 in/hr [0 – 0.49]	No reading	-	-	No Reading
10/24/26 15:20:48	10/23 15:24:07	+24h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.65	0.904 in/hr	0.929 in/hr [0.47 – 1.39]	0.213 in/hr	-0.716 in/hr	0.91σ	✓ Accurate
10/24/26 04:30:45	10/23 04:33:49	+24h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.61	1.016 in/hr	1.924 in/hr [1.47 – 2.38]	0 in/hr	-1.924 in/hr	2.43σ	~ Minor Drift
10/24/26 04:10:45	10/23 04:11:32	+24h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.60	0.973 in/hr	2.048 in/hr [1.59 – 2.51]	0 in/hr	-2.048 in/hr	2.59σ	🚨 Diverged
10/24/26 03:45:45	10/23 03:49:13	+24h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.58	0.926 in/hr	2.175 in/hr [1.71 – 2.64]	0 in/hr	-2.175 in/hr	2.75σ	🚨 Diverged
10/24/26 03:25:44	10/23 03:28:19	+24h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.60	1.007 in/hr	1.336 in/hr [0.88 – 1.79]	0 in/hr	-1.336 in/hr	1.69σ	~ Minor Drift
10/23/26 21:20:48	10/23 15:24:07	+6h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.65	0.904 in/hr	0.915 in/hr [0.59 – 1.24]	0.917 in/hr	+0.002 in/hr	0σ	✓ Accurate
10/23/26 19:55:42	10/22 19:59:52	+24h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.60	0.943 in/hr	1.581 in/hr [1.16 – 2.01]	0.917 in/hr	-0.664 in/hr	0.84σ	✓ Accurate
10/23/26 19:10:42	10/22 19:15:12	+24h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.59	0.899 in/hr	1.72 in/hr [1.3 – 2.15]	0.917 in/hr	-0.803 in/hr	1.02σ	✓ Accurate
10/23/26 18:05:42	10/22 18:08:14	+24h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.57	0.834 in/hr	1.798 in/hr [1.38 – 2.22]	0.917 in/hr	-0.881 in/hr	1.11σ	✓ Accurate
10/23/26 16:40:41	10/22 16:43:17	+24h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.55	0.752 in/hr	1.149 in/hr [0.73 – 1.57]	0.878 in/hr	-0.271 in/hr	0.34σ	✓ Accurate
10/23/26 10:45:41	10/22 10:46:42	+24h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.53	0.537 in/hr	0.669 in/hr [0.25 – 1.09]	0.878 in/hr	+0.209 in/hr	0.26σ	✓ Accurate
10/23/26 10:30:45	10/23 04:33:49	+6h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.61	1.016 in/hr	1.437 in/hr [1.12 – 1.76]	0.878 in/hr	-0.559 in/hr	1.24σ	✓ Accurate
10/23/26 10:10:45	10/23 04:11:32	+6h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.60	0.973 in/hr	1.472 in/hr [1.15 – 1.79]	0.878 in/hr	-0.594 in/hr	1.32σ	✓ Accurate
10/23/26 09:45:45	10/23 03:49:13	+6h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.58	0.926 in/hr	1.505 in/hr [1.18 – 1.83]	0.878 in/hr	-0.627 in/hr	1.39σ	✓ Accurate
10/23/26 09:25:44	10/23 03:28:19	+6h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.60	1.007 in/hr	1.159 in/hr [0.84 – 1.48]	0.878 in/hr	-0.281 in/hr	0.62σ	✓ Accurate
10/23/26 08:55:39	10/22 08:57:56	+24h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.52	0.449 in/hr	0.63 in/hr [0.21 – 1.05]	0.878 in/hr	+0.248 in/hr	0.31σ	✓ Accurate
10/23/26 07:10:38	10/22 07:13:25	+24h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.52	0.359 in/hr	0.84 in/hr [0.43 – 1.26]	0.76 in/hr	-0.08 in/hr	0.1σ	✓ Accurate
10/23/26 06:50:38	10/22 06:51:07	+24h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.50	0.336 in/hr	0.918 in/hr [0.5 – 1.33]	0.748 in/hr	-0.17 in/hr	0.22σ	✓ Accurate
10/23/26 05:40:38	10/22 05:44:10	+24h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.50	0.27 in/hr	1.037 in/hr [0.62 – 1.45]	0.748 in/hr	-0.289 in/hr	0.37σ	✓ Accurate
10/23/26 01:55:42	10/22 19:59:52	+6h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.60	0.943 in/hr	1.239 in/hr [0.94 – 1.53]	0.449 in/hr	-0.79 in/hr	1.75σ	~ Minor Drift
10/23/26 01:10:42	10/22 19:15:12	+6h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.59	0.899 in/hr	1.28 in/hr [0.99 – 1.58]	0.217 in/hr	-1.063 in/hr	2.36σ	~ Minor Drift
10/23/26 00:05:42	10/22 18:08:14	+6h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.57	0.834 in/hr	1.281 in/hr [0.99 – 1.58]	0.02 in/hr	-1.261 in/hr	2.8σ	🚨 Diverged
10/22/26 23:45:36	10/21 23:47:25	+24h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.51	0.08 in/hr	0.301 in/hr [0 – 0.71]	1.343 in/hr	+1.042 in/hr	1.32σ	✓ Accurate
10/22/26 23:00:36	10/21 23:02:44	+24h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.52	0.061 in/hr	0.425 in/hr [0.02 – 0.83]	1.272 in/hr	+0.847 in/hr	1.07σ	✓ Accurate
10/22/26 22:40:41	10/22 16:43:17	+6h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.55	0.752 in/hr	0.936 in/hr [0.64 – 1.23]	1.232 in/hr	+0.296 in/hr	0.66σ	✓ Accurate
10/22/26 21:10:35	10/21 21:10:47	+24h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.52	0.015 in/hr	0.434 in/hr [0.03 – 0.84]	1.161 in/hr	+0.727 in/hr	0.92σ	✓ Accurate
10/22/26 19:15:35	10/21 19:17:06	+24h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.52	0 in/hr	0.049 in/hr [0 – 0.46]	1.083 in/hr	+1.034 in/hr	1.31σ	✓ Accurate
10/22/26 16:45:41	10/22 10:46:42	+6h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.53	0.537 in/hr	0.598 in/hr [0.31 – 0.89]	0.803 in/hr	+0.205 in/hr	0.45σ	✓ Accurate
10/22/26 16:15:35	10/21 16:18:37	+24h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.51	0 in/hr	0 in/hr [0 – 0.41]	0.732 in/hr	+0.732 in/hr	0.93σ	✓ Accurate
10/22/26 14:55:39	10/22 08:57:56	+6h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.52	0.449 in/hr	0.533 in/hr [0.24 – 0.82]	0.654 in/hr	+0.121 in/hr	0.27σ	✓ Accurate
10/22/26 14:00:35	10/21 14:04:59	+24h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.50	0 in/hr	0 in/hr [0 – 0.41]	0.654 in/hr	+0.654 in/hr	0.83σ	✓ Accurate
10/22/26 13:10:38	10/22 07:13:25	+6h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.52	0.359 in/hr	0.582 in/hr [0.29 – 0.87]	0.654 in/hr	+0.072 in/hr	0.16σ	✓ Accurate
10/22/26 12:55:35	10/21 12:58:04	+24h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.50	0.002 in/hr	0 in/hr [0 – 0.41]	0.654 in/hr	+0.654 in/hr	0.83σ	✓ Accurate
10/22/26 12:50:38	10/22 06:51:07	+6h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.50	0.336 in/hr	0.606 in/hr [0.32 – 0.89]	0.654 in/hr	+0.048 in/hr	0.11σ	✓ Accurate
10/22/26 12:10:35	10/21 12:14:51	+24h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.50	0.005 in/hr	0 in/hr [0 – 0.41]	0.654 in/hr	+0.654 in/hr	0.83σ	✓ Accurate
10/22/26 11:40:38	10/22 05:44:10	+6h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.50	0.27 in/hr	0.626 in/hr [0.34 – 0.91]	0.654 in/hr	+0.028 in/hr	0.06σ	✓ Accurate
10/22/26 11:05:35	10/21 11:06:32	+24h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.50	0.01 in/hr	0.005 in/hr [0 – 0.41]	0.654 in/hr	+0.649 in/hr	0.82σ	✓ Accurate
10/22/26 10:40:35	10/21 10:44:15	+24h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.51	0.014 in/hr	0.009 in/hr [0 – 0.41]	0.654 in/hr	+0.645 in/hr	0.82σ	✓ Accurate
10/22/26 09:35:35	10/21 09:37:25	+24h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.51	0.019 in/hr	0.015 in/hr [0 – 0.42]	0.654 in/hr	+0.639 in/hr	0.81σ	✓ Accurate
10/22/26 05:45:36	10/21 23:47:25	+6h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.51	0.08 in/hr	0.182 in/hr [0 – 0.47]	0.602 in/hr	+0.42 in/hr	0.93σ	✓ Accurate
10/22/26 05:20:34	10/21 05:21:08	+24h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.51	0.045 in/hr	0.047 in/hr [0 – 0.45]	0.602 in/hr	+0.555 in/hr	0.7σ	✓ Accurate
10/22/26 05:00:36	10/21 23:02:44	+6h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.52	0.061 in/hr	0.23 in/hr [0 – 0.51]	0.583 in/hr	+0.353 in/hr	0.78σ	✓ Accurate
10/22/26 03:10:35	10/21 21:10:47	+6h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.52	0.015 in/hr	0.209 in/hr [0 – 0.49]	0.291 in/hr	+0.082 in/hr	0.18σ	✓ Accurate
10/22/26 01:45:33	10/21 01:49:34	+24h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.52	0.069 in/hr	0 in/hr [0 – 0.41]	0.291 in/hr	+0.291 in/hr	0.37σ	✓ Accurate
10/22/26 01:15:35	10/21 19:17:06	+6h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.52	0 in/hr	0.023 in/hr [0 – 0.31]	0.291 in/hr	+0.268 in/hr	0.59σ	✓ Accurate
10/21/26 22:15:35	10/21 16:18:37	+6h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.51	0 in/hr	0 in/hr [0 – 0.28]	0.24 in/hr	+0.24 in/hr	0.53σ	✓ Accurate
10/21/26 20:00:35	10/21 14:04:59	+6h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.50	0 in/hr	0 in/hr [0 – 0.28]	0.043 in/hr	+0.043 in/hr	0.1σ	✓ Accurate
10/21/26 18:55:35	10/21 12:58:04	+6h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.50	0.002 in/hr	0 in/hr [0 – 0.28]	0.012 in/hr	+0.012 in/hr	0.03σ	✓ Accurate
10/21/26 18:10:35	10/21 12:14:51	+6h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.50	0.005 in/hr	0.002 in/hr [0 – 0.29]	0 in/hr	-0.002 in/hr	0σ	✓ Accurate
10/21/26 17:05:35	10/21 11:06:32	+6h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.50	0.01 in/hr	0.008 in/hr [0 – 0.29]	0 in/hr	-0.008 in/hr	0.02σ	✓ Accurate
10/21/26 16:40:35	10/21 10:44:15	+6h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.51	0.014 in/hr	0.011 in/hr [0 – 0.29]	0 in/hr	-0.011 in/hr	0.02σ	✓ Accurate
10/21/26 15:35:35	10/21 09:37:25	+6h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.51	0.019 in/hr	0.017 in/hr [0 – 0.3]	0 in/hr	-0.017 in/hr	0.04σ	✓ Accurate
10/21/26 15:35:30	10/20 15:37:05	+24h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.52	0.059 in/hr	0.067 in/hr [0 – 0.47]	0 in/hr	-0.067 in/hr	0.08σ	✓ Accurate
10/21/26 11:20:34	10/21 05:21:08	+6h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.51	0.045 in/hr	0.046 in/hr [0 – 0.33]	0 in/hr	-0.046 in/hr	0.1σ	✓ Accurate
10/21/26 07:45:33	10/21 01:49:34	+6h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.52	0.069 in/hr	0 in/hr [0 – 0.28]	0 in/hr	0 in/hr	0σ	✓ Accurate
10/20/26 21:35:30	10/20 15:37:05	+6h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.52	0.059 in/hr	0.063 in/hr [0 – 0.35]	0.067 in/hr	+0.004 in/hr	0.01σ	✓ Accurate

Target Time	Predicted At	Horizon	Model & R²	Start Value	Predicted (80% Cone)	Actual Reading	Error (Actual − Pred)	Z-Error	Outcome
10/24/26 04:30:45	10/23 04:33:49	+24h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.61	1.016 in/hr	1.924 in/hr [1.47 – 2.38]	0 in/hr	-1.924 in/hr	2.43σ	~ Minor Drift
10/24/26 04:10:45	10/23 04:11:32	+24h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.60	0.973 in/hr	2.048 in/hr [1.59 – 2.51]	0 in/hr	-2.048 in/hr	2.59σ	🚨 Diverged
10/24/26 03:45:45	10/23 03:49:13	+24h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.58	0.926 in/hr	2.175 in/hr [1.71 – 2.64]	0 in/hr	-2.175 in/hr	2.75σ	🚨 Diverged
10/23/26 01:10:42	10/22 19:15:12	+6h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.59	0.899 in/hr	1.28 in/hr [0.99 – 1.58]	0.217 in/hr	-1.063 in/hr	2.36σ	~ Minor Drift
10/23/26 00:05:42	10/22 18:08:14	+6h	Adaptive LOESS R²=0.57	0.834 in/hr	1.281 in/hr [0.99 – 1.58]	0.02 in/hr	-1.261 in/hr	2.8σ	🚨 Diverged